Quantifying alcohol's harm to others: a research and policy proposal.

Just under 2.5 million people die annually due to alcohol use. This global estimate, however, excludes most of the health burden borne by others than the alcohol user. Alcohol's harm to others includes a multitude of conditions, such as trauma from traffic crashes, fetal disorders due to prenatal exposure to alcohol, as well as interpersonal and intimate partner violence. While alcohol's causal role in these conditions is well-established, alcohol's harm to others' contribution to the overall health burden of alcohol remains unknown. This knowledge gap leads to a situation in which alcohol policy and prevention strategies largely focus on the reduction of alcohol's detrimental health harms on the alcohol users, neglecting affected others and population groups most vulnerable to these harms, including women and children. In this article, we seek to elucidate why estimates for alcohol's harm to others are lacking and offer guidance for future research. We also argue that a full assessment of the alcohol health burden that includes the harm caused by others' alcohol use would enhance the visibility and public awareness of such harms, and advancing the evaluation of policy interventions to mitigate them.

Chaque année, un peu moins de 2,5 millions de décès sont liés à la consommation d'alcool. Cette estimation globale ne tient cependant pas compte de l'impact sur la santé de l'entourage des consommateurs d'alcool. Les méfaits de l'alcool sur les autres ont une multitude de conséquences, parmi lesquelles des traumatismes dus aux accidents de la circulation, des anomalies fœtales liées à une exposition prénatale à l'alcool, ainsi que des actes de violence interpersonnelle et entre partenaires. Bien que le rôle causal de l'alcool dans ces problématiques soit bien établi, les répercussions de tels méfaits sur la santé dans son ensemble restent à déterminer. Des lacunes qui aboutissent souvent à une situation dans laquelle les politiques et stratégies de prévention se concentrent principalement sur la diminution des effets néfastes de l'alcool sur la santé des consommateurs eux-mêmes, négligeant les personnes qui les entourent et les catégories de population les plus vulnérables, en particulier les femmes et les enfants. Dans cet article, nous tentons d'expliquer pourquoi il n'existe aucune estimation concernant les méfaits de l'alcool sur les autres et prodiguons des conseils pour de futures recherches. Nous plaidons aussi pour une analyse complète de la charge sanitaire imputable à l'alcool incluant les méfaits de l'alcool sur les autres, afin d'améliorer la visibilité et de mieux sensibiliser l'opinion publique à ces problématiques, mais aussi de faire progresser l'évaluation des interventions politiques entreprises pour y remédier.

Cerca de 2,5 millones de personas mueren cada año por el consumo de alcohol. Sin embargo, esta estimación global excluye la mayor parte de la carga sanitaria que soportan personas que no son consumidores de alcohol. Los daños del alcohol a terceros incluyen multitud de afecciones, como los traumatismos por accidentes de tráfico, los trastornos fetales debidos a la exposición prenatal al alcohol, y la violencia interpersonal y de pareja. Aunque se sabe que el alcohol influye en estas afecciones, se desconoce la contribución de los daños del alcohol a terceros a la carga sanitaria global que supone el alcohol. Esta falta de conocimiento conduce a una situación en la que las estrategias de política y de prevención del alcohol se centran en gran medida en la reducción de los daños perjudiciales del alcohol para la salud de los consumidores de alcohol, dejando de lado a los demás afectados y a los grupos de población más vulnerables a estos daños, incluidas las mujeres y los niños. En este artículo, tratamos de dilucidar por qué faltan estimaciones sobre los daños del alcohol en otras personas y ofrecemos orientaciones para futuras investigaciones. También argumentamos que una evaluación completa de la carga sanitaria del alcohol que incluya los daños causados por el consumo de alcohol de otras personas mejoraría la visibilidad y la concienciación pública de esos daños, y haría avanzar la evaluación de las intervenciones políticas para mitigarlos.

Simulation of Alcohol Control Policies for Health Equity (SIMAH) Project: Study Design and First Results.

Since about 2010, life expectancy at birth in the United States has stagnated and begun to decline, with concurrent increases in the socioeconomic divide in life expectancy. The Simulation of Alcohol Control Policies for Health Equity (SIMAH) Project uses a novel microsimulation approach to investigate the extent to which alcohol use, socioeconomic status (SES), and race/ethnicity contribute to unequal developments in US life expectancy and how alcohol control interventions could reduce such inequalities. Representative, secondary data from several sources will be integrated into one coherent, dynamic microsimulation to model life-course changes in SES and alcohol use and cause-specific mortality attributable to alcohol use by SES, race/ethnicity, age, and sex. Markov models will be used to inform transition intensities between levels of SES and drinking patterns. The model will be used to compare a baseline scenario with multiple counterfactual intervention scenarios. The preliminary results indicate that the crucial microsimulation component provides a good fit to observed demographic changes in the population, providing a robust baseline model for further simulation work. By demonstrating the feasibility of this novel approach, the SIMAH Project promises to offer superior integration of relevant empirical evidence to inform public health policy for a more equitable future.

Can lifestyle factors explain racial and ethnic inequalities in all-cause mortality among US adults?

BACKGROUND: Racial and ethnic inequalities in all-cause mortality exist, and individual-level lifestyle factors have been proposed to contribute to these inequalities. In this study, we evaluate the extent to which the association between race and ethnicity and all-cause mortality can be explained by differences in the exposure and vulnerability to harmful effects of different lifestyle factors. METHODS: The 1997-2014 cross-sectional, annual US National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) linked to the 2015 National Death Index was used. NHIS reported on race and ethnicity (non-Hispanic White, non-Hispanic Black, and Hispanic/Latinx), lifestyle factors (alcohol use, smoking, body mass index, physical activity), and covariates (sex, age, education, marital status, survey year). Causal mediation using an additive hazard and marginal structural approach was used. RESULTS: 465,073 adults (18-85 years) were followed 8.9 years (SD: 5.3); 49,804 deaths were observed. Relative to White adults, Black adults experienced 21.7 (men; 95%CI: 19.9, 23.5) and 11.5 (women; 95%CI: 10.1, 12.9) additional deaths per 10,000 person-years whereas Hispanic/Latinx women experienced 9.3 (95%CI: 8.1, 10.5) fewer deaths per 10,000 person-years; no statistically significant differences were identified between White and Hispanic/Latinx men. Notably, these differences in mortality were partially explained by both differential exposure and differential vulnerability to the lifestyle factors among Black women, while different effects of individual lifestyle factors canceled each other out among Black men and Hispanic/Latinx women. CONCLUSIONS: Lifestyle factors provide some explanation for racial and ethnic inequalities in all-cause mortality. Greater attention to structural, life course, healthcare, and other factors is needed to understand determinants of inequalities in mortality and to advance health equity.

Trends in mortality from alcohol, opioid, and combined alcohol and opioid poisonings by sex, educational attainment, and race and ethnicity for the United States 2000-2019.

BACKGROUND: The ongoing opioid epidemic and increases in alcohol-related mortality are key public health concerns in the USA, with well-documented inequalities in the degree to which groups with low and high education are affected. This study aimed to quantify disparities over time between educational and racial and ethnic groups in sex-specific mortality rates for opioid, alcohol, and combined alcohol and opioid poisonings in the USA. METHODS: The 2000-2019 Multiple Cause of Death Files from the National Vital Statistics System (NVSS) were used alongside population counts from the Current Population Survey 2000-2019. Alcohol, opioid, and combined alcohol and opioid poisonings were assigned using ICD-10 codes. Sex-stratified generalized least square regression models quantified differences between educational and racial and ethnic groups and changes in educational inequalities over time. RESULTS: Between 2000 and 2019, there was a 6.4-fold increase in opioid poisoning deaths, a 4.6-fold increase in combined alcohol and opioid poisoning deaths, and a 2.1-fold increase in alcohol poisoning deaths. Educational inequalities were observed for all poisoning outcomes, increasing over time for opioid-only and combined alcohol and opioid mortality. For non-Hispanic White Americans, the largest educational inequalities were observed for opioid poisonings and rates were 7.5 (men) and 7.2 (women) times higher in low compared to high education groups. Combined alcohol and opioid poisonings had larger educational inequalities for non-Hispanic Black men and women (relative to non-Hispanic White), with rates 8.9 (men) and 10.9 (women) times higher in low compared to high education groups. CONCLUSIONS: For all types of poisoning, our analysis indicates wide and increasing gaps between those with low and high education with the largest inequalities observed for opioid-involved poisonings for non-Hispanic Black and White men and women. This study highlights population sub-groups such as individuals with low education who may be at the highest risk of increasing mortality from combined alcohol and opioid poisonings. Thereby the findings are crucial for the development of targeted public health interventions to reduce poisoning mortality and the socioeconomic inequalities related to it.

Temperature, size and developmental plasticity in birds.

As temperatures increase, there is growing evidence that species across much of the tree of life are getting smaller. These climate change-driven size reductions are often interpreted as a temporal analogue of the observation that individuals within a species tend to be smaller in the warmer parts of the species' range. For ectotherms, there has been a broad effort to understand the role of developmental plasticity in temperature-size relationships, but in endotherms, this mechanism has received relatively little attention in favour of selection-based explanations. We review the evidence for a role of developmental plasticity in warming-driven size reductions in birds and highlight insulin-like growth factors as a potential mechanism underlying plastic responses to temperature in endotherms. We find that, as with ectotherms, changes in temperature during development can result in shifts in body size in birds, with size reductions associated with warmer temperatures being the most frequent association. This suggests developmental plasticity may be an important, but largely overlooked, mechanism underlying warming-driven size reductions in endotherms. Plasticity and natural selection have very different constraining forces, thus understanding the mechanism linking temperature and body size in endotherms has broad implications for predicting future impacts of climate change on biodiversity.

Comparing gender-specific suicide mortality rate trends in the United States and Lithuania, 1990-2019: putting one of the "deaths of despair" into perspective.

INTRODUCTION: The increase in the suicide mortality rate among middle-aged adults in the United States (US) has been well documented. Aside from a few studies from the United Kingdom, it is unclear whether the suicide mortality rate trend in the US is also occurring in other developed countries. Accordingly, we aimed to compare the suicide mortality rate trends over the past 30 years in the US to a country in the European Union-Lithuania. METHODS: Joinpoint regression analyses were performed to identify secular trends in the gender-specific age-standardized suicide mortality rate among individuals 15 + years of age, as well as middle-aged adults (45-54 years of age), and suicide mortality rate ratio for men-to-women. RESULTS: Age-standardized suicide mortality rates among middle-aged adults in the US increased annually, on average, by 0.89% (95% CI: 0.66%, 1.12%) among men and 1.21% (95% CI: 0.75%, 1.66%) among women between 1990 and 2019. In contrast to the US, there was an overall downward trend in the suicide mortality rates among middle-aged adults in Lithuania across the study period. The average annual percent change in the suicide mortality rate ratio for men-to-women were not statistically significant for either country. CONCLUSION: The suicide mortality rate trend in the US does not appear to be an indicator of an upcoming global trend, but rather should be regarded as a cautionary example of what other countries should strive to avoid.

Gender-specific risk relationship between heavy alcohol use/alcohol use disorders and suicidal thoughts and behavior among adults in the United States over time.

PURPOSE: Suicidal thoughts and behaviors have been on the rise in the recent years in the US. There is a well-known link between heavy alcohol use/alcohol use disorders (AUDs) and suicidal thoughts and behaviors. An increase in the respective risk relationships is one way in which heavy alcohol use/AUDs may be driving the increase in the rate of suicidal thoughts and behaviors. The objective of the current study was to investigate whether the gender-specific risk relationships between heavy alcohol use/AUDs and past-year (1) suicidal thoughts and (2) attempted suicide have increased over time. METHODS: Individual-level annual data from the National Survey on Drug Use and Health for the past 12 years (2008-2019) were utilized. Year- and gender-specific multivariate binary logistic regression analyses were first conducted. Gender-stratified random-effects meta-regressions across study years were then conducted. RESULTS: Heavy alcohol use/AUDs were associated with elevated odds of past-year suicidal thoughts and attempted suicide for both men and women; however, a linear increase in the risk relationships over time was not found. CONCLUSION: Although a temporal increase in the risk relationships of interest was not found, until additional research in this area is conducted, heavy alcohol use/AUDs cannot be ruled out as being a driving force behind the increasing rate of suicidal thoughts and behaviors in the US.

Digital Assessment Tools Using Animation Features to Quantify Alcohol Consumption: Systematic App Store and Literature Review.

BACKGROUND: Accurate and user-friendly assessment tools for quantifying alcohol consumption are a prerequisite for effective interventions to reduce alcohol-related harm. Digital assessment tools (DATs) that allow the description of consumed alcoholic drinks through animation features may facilitate more accurate reporting than conventional approaches. OBJECTIVE: This review aims to identify and characterize freely available DATs in English or Russian that use animation features to support the quantitative assessment of alcohol consumption (alcohol DATs) and determine the extent to which such tools have been scientifically evaluated in terms of feasibility, acceptability, and validity. METHODS: Systematic English and Russian searches were conducted in iOS and Android app stores and via the Google search engine. Information on the background and content of eligible DATs was obtained from app store descriptions, websites, and test completions. A systematic literature review was conducted in Embase, MEDLINE, PsycINFO, and Web of Science to identify English-language studies reporting the feasibility, acceptability, and validity of animation-using alcohol DATs. Where possible, the evaluated DATs were accessed and assessed. Owing to the high heterogeneity of study designs, results were synthesized narratively. RESULTS: We identified 22 eligible alcohol DATs in English, 3 (14%) of which were also available in Russian. More than 95% (21/22) of tools allowed the choice of a beverage type from a visually displayed selection. In addition, 36% (8/22) of tools enabled the choice of a drinking vessel. Only 9% (2/22) of tools allowed the simulated interactive pouring of a drink. For none of the tools published evaluation studies were identified in the literature review. The systematic literature review identified 5 exploratory studies evaluating the feasibility, acceptability, and validity of 4 animation-using alcohol DATs, 1 (25%) of which was available in the searched app stores. The evaluated tools reached moderate to high scores on user rating scales and showed fair to high convergent validity when compared with established assessment methods. CONCLUSIONS: Animation-using alcohol DATs are available in app stores and on the web. However, they often use nondynamic features and lack scientific background information. Explorative study data suggest that such tools might enable the user-friendly and valid assessment of alcohol consumption and could thus serve as a building block in the reduction of alcohol-attributable health burden worldwide. TRIAL REGISTRATION: PROSPERO International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews CRD42020172825; https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/prospero/display_record.php?ID=CRD42020172825.

The dose-response relationship between socioeconomic deprivation and alcohol-attributable mortality risk-a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Individuals with low socioeconomic status (SES) experience a higher risk of mortality, in general, and alcohol-attributable mortality in particular. However, a knowledge gap exists concerning the dose-response relationships between the level of socioeconomic deprivation and the alcohol-attributable mortality risk. METHODS: We conducted a systematic literature search in August of 2020 to update a previous systematic review that included studies published up until February of 2013. Quantitative studies reporting on socioeconomic inequality in alcohol-attributable mortality among the general adult population were included. We used random-effects dose-response meta-analyses to investigate the relationship between the level of socioeconomic deprivation and the relative alcohol-attributable risk (RR), by sex and indicator of SES (education, income, and occupation). RESULTS: We identified 25 eligible studies, comprising about 241 million women and 230 million men, among whom there were about 75,200 and 308,400 alcohol-attributable deaths, respectively. A dose-response relationship between the level of socioeconomic deprivation and the RR was found for all indicators of SES. The sharpest and non-linear increase in the RR of dying from an alcohol-attributable cause of death with increasing levels of socioeconomic deprivation was observed for education, where, compared to the most educated individuals, individuals at percentiles with decreasing education had the following RR of dying: women: 25th: 2.09 [95% CI 1.70-2.59], 50th: 3.43 [2.67-4.49], 75th: 4.43 [3.62-5.50], 100th: 4.50 [3.26-6.40]; men: 25th: 2.34 [1.98-2.76], 50th: 4.22 [3.38-5.24], 75th: 5.87 [4.75-7.10], 100th: 6.28 [4.89-8.07]. CONCLUSIONS: The findings of this study show that individuals along the entire continuum of SES are exposed to increased alcohol-attributable mortality risk. Differences in the dose-response relationship can guide priorities in targeting public health initiatives.

Socioeconomic inequality in the risk of intentional injuries among adolescents: a cross-sectional analysis of 89 countries.

INTRODUCTION: In 2015, the elimination of hunger worldwide by 2030 was declared by the United Nations as a Sustainable Development Goal. However, food insecurity remains pervasive, contributing to socioeconomic health inequalities. The overall objective was to investigate the relationship between food insecurity and intentional injuries among adolescents. METHODS: Individual-level data from the Global School-based Student Health Survey from 89 countries were used (370 719 adolescents, aged 12-17 years). Multilevel logistic regressions were used to examine the sex-specific association between the level of food insecurity (none, medium and high) and intentional injuries (interpersonal violence and suicide attempts), accounting for the clustering of observations within surveys. Random-effects meta-analyses were used to analyse dose-response relationships. RESULTS: Medium and high food insecurity were associated with increased odds of reporting an injury from interpersonal violence among both sexes. A positive dose-response relationship was found, where each level increase in food insecurity was associated with a 30% increase in the odds of an injury due to interpersonal violence among boys (1.30; 95% CI 1.26 to 1.34) and a 50% increase among girls (1.53; 95% CI 1.46-1.62). The odds for suicide attempts increased by 30% for both sexes with each level increase in food insecurity (boys: 1.29; 95% CI 1.25-1.32; girls: 1.29; 95% CI 1.25-1.32). DISCUSSION: The findings indicate that socioeconomic inequalities exist in the risk of intentional injuries among adolescents. Although additional studies are needed to establish causality, the present study suggests that the amelioration of food insecurity could have implications beyond the prevention of its direct consequences.

A supportive school environment may reduce the risk of non-medical prescription opioid use due to impaired mental health among students.

Canada is in the midst of an ongoing, escalating opioid crisis, with significant impacts on adolescents and young adults. Accordingly, mental health impairment was examined as a risk factor for non-medical prescription opioid use (NMPOU) among high school students. In addition, the moderating effects of the school environment, in terms of the availability of mental health services and substance use policies, were characterized. Self-reported, cross-sectional data were obtained from the COMPASS study, including 61,239 students (grades 9-12) in 121 secondary schools across Canada. Current and lifetime NMPOU were ascertained. Categorical indicators of mental health impairment and school environment were derived. The main analytical strategy encompassed hierarchal multilevel logistic regression, including the addition of interaction terms to characterize the moderation effects. Current and lifetime NMPOU were reported by 5.8% and 7.2% of the students, respectively. After adjusting for confounders, students in the highest quintile of mental health impairment had odds ratios (OR) of 2.60 (95% confidence interval [CI] 2.29-2.95) and 2.96 (95% CI 2.64-3.33) for current and lifetime NMPOU, respectively when compared to students in the lowest quintile of mental health impairment. A significant interaction between mental health impairment and school environment indicated relatively lower risks of NMPOU in students from schools that provide more mental health services and have stricter substance use policies. Mental health impairment increased the risk of NMPOU, but the associations were moderated by the school environment. These findings underscore the importance of mental health services and substance use regulations in schools.

Alcohol use disorders.

Alcohol use disorders consist of disorders characterised by compulsive heavy alcohol use and loss of control over alcohol intake. Alcohol use disorders are some of the most prevalent mental disorders globally, especially in high-income and upper-middle-income countries; and are associated with high mortality and burden of disease, mainly due to medical consequences, such as liver cirrhosis or injury. Despite their high prevalence, alcohol use disorders are undertreated partly because of the high stigma associated with them, but also because of insufficient systematic screening in primary health care, although effective and cost-effective psychosocial and pharmacological interventions do exist. Primary health care should be responsible for most treatment, with routine screening for alcohol use, and the provision of a staggered treatment response, from brief advice to pharmacological treatment. Clinical interventions for these disorders should be embedded in a supportive environment, which can be bolstered by the creation of alcohol control policies aimed at reducing the overall level of consumption.

Global alcohol exposure between 1990 and 2017 and forecasts until 2030: a modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Alcohol use is a leading risk factor for global disease burden, and data on alcohol exposure are crucial to evaluate progress in achieving global non-communicable disease goals. We present estimates on the main indicators of alcohol exposure for 189 countries from 1990-2017, with forecasts up to 2030. METHODS: Adult alcohol per-capita consumption (the consumption in L of pure alcohol per adult [≥15 years]) in a given year was based on country-validated data up to 2016. Forecasts up to 2030 were obtained from multivariate log-normal mixture Poisson distribution models. Using survey data from 149 countries, prevalence of lifetime abstinence and current drinking was obtained from Dirichlet regressions. The prevalence of heavy episodic drinking (30-day prevalence of at least one occasion of 60 g of pure alcohol intake among current drinkers) was estimated with fractional response regressions using survey data from 118 countries. FINDINGS: Between 1990 and 2017, global adult per-capita consumption increased from 5·9 L (95% CI 5·8-6·1) to 6·5 L (6·0-6·9), and is forecasted to reach 7·6 L (6·5-10·2) by 2030. Globally, the prevalence of lifetime abstinence decreased from 46% (42-49) in 1990 to 43% (40-46) in 2017, albeit this was not a significant reduction, while the prevalence of current drinking increased from 45% (41-48) in 1990 to 47% (44-50) in 2017. We forecast both trends to continue, with abstinence decreasing to 40% (37-44) by 2030 (annualised 0·2% decrease) and the proportion of current drinkers increasing to 50% (46-53) by 2030 (annualised 0·2% increase). In 2017, 20% (17-24) of adults were heavy episodic drinkers (compared with 1990 when it was estimated at 18·5% [15·3-21·6%], and this prevalence is expected to increase to 23% (19-27) in 2030. INTERPRETATION: Based on these data, global goals for reducing the harmful use of alcohol are unlikely to be achieved, and known effective and cost-effective policy measures should be implemented to reduce alcohol exposure. FUNDING: Centre for Addiction and Mental Health and the WHO Collaborating Center for Addiction and Mental Health at the Centre for Addiction and Mental Health.

Why Is Per Capita Consumption Underestimated in Alcohol Surveys? Results from 39 Surveys in 23 European Countries.

AIMS: The aims of the article are (a) to estimate coverage rates (i.e. the proportion of 'real consumption' accounted for by a survey compared with more reliable aggregate consumption data) of the total, the recorded and the beverage-specific annual per capita consumption in 23 European countries, and (b) to investigate differences between regions, and other factors which might be associated with low coverage (prevalence of heavy episodic drinking [HED], survey methodology). METHODS: Survey data were derived from the Standardised European Alcohol Survey and Harmonising Alcohol-related Measures in European Surveys (number of surveys: 39, years of survey: 2008-2015, adults aged 20-64 years). Coverage rates were calculated at the aggregated level by dividing consumption estimates derived from the surveys by alcohol per capita estimates from a recent global modelling study. Fractional response regression models were used to examine the relative importance of the predictors. RESULTS: Large variation in coverage across European countries was observed (average total coverage: 36.5, 95% confidence interval [CI] [33.2; 39.8]), with lowest coverage found for spirits consumption (26.3, 95% CI [21.4; 31.3]). Regarding the second aim, the prevalence of HED was associated with wine- and spirits-specific coverage, explaining 10% in the respective variance. However, neither the consideration of regions nor survey methodology explained much of the variance in coverage estimates, regardless of the scenario. CONCLUSION: The results reiterate that alcohol survey data should not be used to compare or estimate aggregate consumption levels, which may be better reflected by statistics on recorded or total per capita consumption.

Unrecorded Alcohol Consumption in Seven European Union Countries.

INTRODUCTION: Unrecorded alcohol, that is, alcohol not reflected in official statistics of the country where it is consumed, contributes markedly to overall consumption of alcohol. However, empirical data on unrecorded alcohol consumption are scarce, especially in high-income countries. This study measures the contribution of unrecorded alcohol in 7 member states of the European Union. METHODS: Two categories of unrecorded consumption were assessed in general population surveys (reducing alcohol related harm Standardized European Alcohol Survey; n = 11,224): home-made alcohol and cross-border shopping. Country-specific logistic regressions were used to link respondent characteristics to odds of acquisition of unrecorded alcohol. Total per capita alcohol consumption was estimated under different assumptions of calculating unrecorded alcohol consumption. RESULTS: Individuals with higher drinking levels were more likely to acquire unrecorded alcohol in all 7 countries. In some countries, male sex and more affluent social class were also positively linked to acquisition of unrecorded alcohol. There was a substantial contribution of unrecorded alcohol to overall consumption in 5 out of 7 member states (Croatia, Finland, Greece, Hungary, Portugal), but not in Poland or Spain. In Greece, up to two-thirds of all alcohol consumed was estimated to be unrecorded. CONCLUSION: Unrecorded alcohol contributes to overall consumption even in high-income countries, and thus needs to be monitored. In monitoring, as many categories of unrecorded alcohol as possible should be clearly defined (e.g., surrogate alcohol) and included in future surveys.

Lifetime Prevalence of Cervical Cancer Screening in 55 Low- and Middle-Income Countries.

Importance: The World Health Organization is developing a global strategy to eliminate cervical cancer, with goals for screening prevalence among women aged 30 through 49 years. However, evidence on prevalence levels of cervical cancer screening in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) is sparse. Objective: To determine lifetime cervical cancer screening prevalence in LMICs and its variation across and within world regions and countries. Design, Setting, and Participants: Analysis of cross-sectional nationally representative household surveys carried out in 55 LMICs from 2005 through 2018. The median response rate across surveys was 93.8% (range, 64.0%-99.3%). The population-based sample consisted of 1 136 289 women aged 15 years or older, of whom 6885 (0.6%) had missing information for the survey question on cervical cancer screening. Exposures: World region, country; countries' economic, social, and health system characteristics; and individuals' sociodemographic characteristics. Main Outcomes and Measures: Self-report of having ever had a screening test for cervical cancer. Results: Of the 1 129 404 women included in the analysis, 542 475 were aged 30 through 49 years. A country-level median of 43.6% (interquartile range [IQR], 13.9%-77.3%; range, 0.3%-97.4%) of women aged 30 through 49 years self-reported to have ever been screened, with countries in Latin America and the Caribbean having the highest prevalence (country-level median, 84.6%; IQR, 65.7%-91.1%; range, 11.7%-97.4%) and those in sub-Saharan Africa the lowest prevalence (country-level median, 16.9%; IQR, 3.7%-31.0%; range, 0.9%-50.8%). There was large variation in the self-reported lifetime prevalence of cervical cancer screening among countries within regions and among countries with similar levels of per capita gross domestic product and total health expenditure. Within countries, women who lived in rural areas, had low educational attainment, or had low household wealth were generally least likely to self-report ever having been screened. Conclusions and Relevance: In this cross-sectional study of data collected in 55 low- and middle-income countries from 2005 through 2018, there was wide variation between countries in the self-reported lifetime prevalence of cervical cancer screening. However, the median prevalence was only 44%, supporting the need to increase the rate of screening.

A software architecture for mechanism-based social systems modelling in agent-based simulation models.

This paper introduces the MBSSM (Mechanism-Based Social Systems Modelling) software architecture that is designed for expressing mechanisms of social theories with individual behaviour components in a unified way and implementing these mechanisms in an agent-based simulation model. The MBSSM architecture is based on a middle-range theory approach most recently expounded by analytical sociology and is designed in the object-oriented programming paradigm with Unified Modelling Language diagrams. This paper presents two worked examples of using the architecture for modelling individual behaviour mechanisms that give rise to the dynamics of population-level alcohol use: a single-theory model of norm theory and a multi-theory model that combines norm theory with role theory. The MBSSM architecture provides a computational environment within which theories based on social mechanisms can be represented, compared, and integrated. The architecture plays a fundamental enabling role within a wider simulation model-based framework of abductive reasoning in which families of theories are tested for their ability to explain concrete social phenomena.

What about drinking is associated with shorter life in poorer people?

In a Perspective, Jürgen Rehm and Charlotte Probst examine the links between socioeconomic status, alcohol use, and cardiovascular mortality and discuss implications for policy.

Global prevalence of alcohol use and binge drinking during pregnancy, and fetal alcohol spectrum disorder.

Alcohol use during pregnancy is an established cause of fetal alcohol spectrum disorder (FASD), with heavy drinking during pregnancy being explicitly linked to fetal alcohol syndrome (FAS). This paper presents recent estimates of the prevalence of: (i) any amount of alcohol use during pregnancy; (ii) one or more binge drinking episode(s) (4 or more standard drinks on a single occasion) during pregnancy; (iii) FAS; and (iv) FASD among the general population globally and by World Health Organization region. It is apparent, based on the presented estimates, that alcohol use and binge drinking occur frequently among pregnant women in many countries and as a result, FASD is a prevalent alcohol-related developmental disability. Urgent action is required around the globe to eliminate prenatal alcohol exposure and prevent future children, adolescents, and adults from having FASD.

The socioeconomic profile of alcohol-attributable mortality in South Africa: a modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Globally, illness and life expectancy follow a social gradient that puts people of lower socioeconomic status (SES) at higher risk of dying prematurely. Alcohol consumption has been shown to be a factor contributing to socioeconomic differences in mortality. However, little evidence is available from low- and middle-income countries. The objective of this study was to quantify mortality attributable to alcohol consumption in the adult (15+ years) general population of South Africa in 2015 by SES, age, and sex. METHODS: A comparative risk assessment was performed using individual and aggregate data from South Africa and risk relations reported in the literature. Alcohol-attributable fractions (AAFs) and alcohol-attributable mortality rates were estimated for cause-specific mortality by SES, sex, and age. Monte Carlo simulation techniques were used to calculate 95% uncertainty intervals (UI). RESULTS: Overall, approximately 62,300 (95% UI 27,000-103,000) adults died from alcohol-attributable causes in South Africa in 2015, with 60% of deaths occurring in people in the low and 15% in the high SES groups. Age-standardized, alcohol-attributable mortality rates per 100,000 adults were highest for the low SES group (727 deaths, 95% UI 354-1208 deaths) followed by the middle (377 deaths, 95% UI 165-687 deaths) and high SES groups (163 deaths, 95% UI 71-289 deaths). The socioeconomic differences were highest for mortality from infectious diseases. People of low SES had a lower prevalence of current alcohol use but heavier drinking patterns among current drinkers. Among men, AAFs were elevated at low and middle SES, particularly for the middle and higher age groups (35+). Among women, AAFs differed less across SES groups and, in the youngest age group (15-34), women of high SES had elevated AAFs. CONCLUSIONS: Alcohol use contributed to vast socioeconomic differences in mortality. Where observed, elevated AAFs for people of low and middle SES arose from higher levels of consumption among current drinkers and not from the prevalence of current alcohol use per se. The findings can direct preventive measures and interventions on those at highest risk. Future research is needed to investigate socioeconomic differences in the risk functions relating alcohol use to cause-specific mortality.