That's not the Mona Lisa! How to interpret spatial capture-recapture density surface estimates.

Spatial capture-recapture methods are often used to produce density surfaces, and these surfaces are often misinterpreted. In particular, spatial change in density is confused with spatial change in uncertainty about density. We illustrate correct and incorrect inference visually by treating a grayscale image of the Mona Lisa as an activity center intensity or density surface and simulating spatial capture-recapture survey data from it. Inferences can be drawn about the intensity of the point process generating activity centers, and about the likely locations of activity centers associated with the capture histories obtained from a single survey of a single realization of this process. We show that treating probabilistic predictions of activity center locations as estimates of the intensity of the process results in invalid and misleading ecological inferences, and that predictions are highly dependent on where the detectors are placed and how much survey effort is used. Estimates of the activity center density surface should be obtained by estimating the intensity of a point process model for activity centers. Practitioners should state explicitly whether they are estimating the intensity or making predictions of activity center location, and predictions of activity center locations should not be confused with estimates of the intensity.

Spatial correlation structures for detections of individuals in spatial capture-recapture models.

Spatial capture-recapture (SCR) models are commonly used to estimate animal density from surveys on which detectors passively detect animals without physical capture, for example, using camera traps, hair snares, or microphones. An individual is more likely to be recorded by detectors close to its activity center, the centroid of its movement throughout the survey. Existing models to account for this spatial heterogeneity in detection probabilities rely on an assumption of independence between detection records at different detectors conditional on the animals' activity centers, which are treated as latent variables. In this paper, we show that this conditional independence assumption may be violated due to the way animals move around the survey region and encounter detectors, such that additional spatial correlation is almost inevitable. We highlight the links between the well-studied issue of unmodeled temporal heterogeneity in nonspatial capture-recapture and this variety of unmodeled spatial heterogeneity in SCR, showing that the latter causes predictable bias in the same way as the former. We address this by introducing a latent detection field into the model, and illustrate the resulting approach with a simulation study and an application to a camera-trap survey of snow leopards Panthera uncia. Our method is a unifying model for several existing SCR approaches, with special cases including standard SCR, models that account for nonspatial individual heterogeneity, and models with overdispersed detection counts.

Genome report: chromosome-level draft assemblies of the snow leopard, African leopard, and tiger (Panthera uncia, Panthera pardus pardus, and Panthera tigris).

The big cats (genus Panthera) represent some of the most popular and charismatic species on the planet. Although some reference genomes are available for this clade, few are at the chromosome level, inhibiting high-resolution genomic studies. We assembled genomes from 3 members of the genus, the tiger (Panthera tigris), the snow leopard (Panthera uncia), and the African leopard (Panthera pardus pardus), at chromosome or near-chromosome level. We used a combination of short- and long-read technologies, as well as proximity ligation data from Hi-C technology, to achieve high continuity and contiguity for each individual. We hope that these genomes will aid in further evolutionary and conservation research of this iconic group of mammals.

Spatial variation in population-density of snow leopards in a multiple use landscape in Spiti Valley, Trans-Himalaya.

The endangered snow leopard Panthera uncia occurs in human use landscapes in the mountains of South and Central Asia. Conservationists generally agree that snow leopards must be conserved through a land-sharing approach, rather than land-sparing in the form of strictly protected areas. Effective conservation through land-sharing requires a good understanding of how snow leopards respond to human use of the landscape. Snow leopard density is expected to show spatial variation within a landscape because of variation in the intensity of human use and the quality of habitat. However, snow leopards have been difficult to enumerate and monitor. Variation in the density of snow leopards remains undocumented, and the impact of human use on their populations is poorly understood. We examined spatial variation in snow leopard density in Spiti Valley, an important snow leopard landscape in India, via spatially explicit capture-recapture analysis of camera trap data. We camera trapped an area encompassing a minimum convex polygon of 953 km2. Our best model estimated an overall density of 0.5 (95% CI: 0.31-0.82) mature snow leopards per 100 km2. Using AIC, our best model showed the density of snow leopards to depend on estimated wild prey density, movement about activity centres to depend on altitude, and the expected number of encounters at the activity centre to depend on topography. Models that also used livestock biomass as a density covariate ranked second, but the effect of livestock was weak. Our results highlight the importance of maintaining high density pockets of wild prey populations in multiple-use landscapes to enhance snow leopard conservation.

Every hill has its leopard: patterns of space use by leopards (Panthera pardus) in a mixed use landscape in India.

Understanding abundance and distribution of species is often necessary for wildlife conservation. However, elusive species such as the leopard (Panthera pardus) that have wide geographical distribution and typically low abundance pose a constant challenge to conservationists due to logistical and methodological constraints. Although leopard abundance has been estimated at the scale of protected areas or other smaller regions, reliable information describing leopard distribution over large spatial scales remains largely unavailable. Knowledge about space use by leopards within landscapes could help improve conservation management, reduce human-wildlife conflict, and also facilitate population status monitoring. We carried out occupancy surveys across c. 24,000 km2 in southern India in a landscape that consisted a mosaic of leopards' natural habitats and highly human-dominated areas. We investigated the effects of key ecological and anthropogenic variables in determining leopard space use patterns. We addressed imperfect detections obtained using sign surveys conducted on spatially replicated transects within sampling units by modeling detection as a function of spatial auto-correlation and covariates. Our results show that the probability of site-use by leopards across the landscape varied between 0.02 (95% CI [0.01-0.09]) and 0.99 (95% CI [0.99-1.0]) across the study area. The best model (AIC weight = 0.97) showed that the probability of leopard space use was affected by the proportion of natural habitats and the presence of large wild prey in the sampling unit. Given that India is undergoing rapid modifications due to economic changes and demand for natural resources, we emphasize the need for landscape-based approach for conserving and monitoring leopards. We argue that leopards are an indicator of functional ecosystems represented by scrub, deciduous forest and rocky outcrops that do not always get prioritized for conservation, unlike densely forested habitats. Similarly, conservation of natural large wild prey, especially outside the protected area system, should assume greater importance, which could also have a positive impact on reducing human-leopard conflict.

Non heamoptytic massive Rasmussen's pulmonary artery aneurysm caused by aggressive cavitating squamous cell carcinoma metastasis.

The authors report an extremely rare occurrence of a massive aneurysm of a major pulmonary artery branch vessel caused by adjacent necrotizing aggressive squamous cell carcinoma metastatic mediastinal nodes. Despite the huge size, there was no hemoptysis due to the walling off effect by the necrotic nodes.

Vigorous dynamics underlie a stable population of the endangered snow leopard Panthera uncia in Tost Mountains, South Gobi, Mongolia.

Population monitoring programmes and estimation of vital rates are key to understanding the mechanisms of population growth, decline or stability, and are important for effective conservation action. We report, for the first time, the population trends and vital rates of the endangered snow leopard based on camera trapping over four years in the Tost Mountains, South Gobi, Mongolia. We used robust design multi-season mark-recapture analysis to estimate the trends in abundance, sex ratio, survival probability and the probability of temporary emigration and immigration for adult and young snow leopards. The snow leopard population remained constant over most of the study period, with no apparent growth (λ = 1.08+-0.25). Comparison of model results with the "known population" of radio-collared snow leopards suggested high accuracy in our estimates. Although seemingly stable, vigorous underlying dynamics were evident in this population, with the adult sex ratio shifting from being male-biased to female-biased (1.67 to 0.38 males per female) during the study. Adult survival probability was 0.82 (SE+-0.08) and that of young was 0.83 (SE+-0.15) and 0.77 (SE +-0.2) respectively, before and after the age of 2 years. Young snow leopards showed a high probability of temporary emigration and immigration (0.6, SE +-0.19 and 0.68, SE +-0.32 before and after the age of 2 years) though not the adults (0.02 SE+-0.07). While the current female-bias in the population and the number of cubs born each year seemingly render the study population safe, the vigorous dynamics suggests that the situation can change quickly. The reduction in the proportion of male snow leopards may be indicative of continuing anthropogenic pressures. Our work reiterates the importance of monitoring both the abundance and population dynamics of species for effective conservation.