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1.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A ; 119(14): e2106005119, 2022 04 05.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35344423

RESUMO

SignificanceSome viruses that infect bacteria, temperate bacteriophages, can confer immunity to infection by the same virus. Here we report λ-immune bacteria could protect λ-sensitive bacteria from killing by phage λ in mixed culture. The protection depended on the extent to which the immune bacteria were able to adsorb the phage. Reconciling modeling with experiment led to identifying a decline in protection as bacteria stopped growing. Adsorption of λ was compromised by inhibition of bacterial energy metabolism, explaining the loss of protection as bacterial growth ceased.


Assuntos
Bacteriófagos , Bacteriófago lambda/genética , Escherichia coli/metabolismo
2.
J Infect Dis ; 229(1): 59-63, 2024 Jan 12.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37402631

RESUMO

Many countries affected by the global outbreak of mpox in 2022 have observed a decline in cases. Our mathematical model accounting for heavy-tailed sexual partnership distributions suggests that mpox epidemics can hit the infection-derived herd immunity threshold and begin to decline, with <1% of sexually active men who have sex with men infected regardless of interventions or behavioral changes. We consistently found that many countries and US states experienced an epidemic peak, with cumulative cases of around 0.1% to 0.5% among men who have sex with men. The observed decline in cases may not necessarily be attributable to interventions or behavioral changes primarily.


Assuntos
Mpox , Minorias Sexuais e de Gênero , Masculino , Humanos , Homossexualidade Masculina , Comportamento Sexual , Surtos de Doenças
3.
Clin Infect Dis ; 78(4): 976-982, 2024 Apr 10.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37738564

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Widespread outbreaks of person-to-person transmitted hepatitis A virus (HAV), particularly among people who inject drugs (PWID), continue across the United States and globally. However, the herd immunity threshold and vaccination coverage required to prevent outbreaks are unknown. We used surveillance data and dynamic modeling to estimate herd immunity thresholds among PWID in 16 US states. METHODS: We used a previously published dynamic model of HAV transmission calibrated to surveillance data from outbreaks involving PWID in 16 states. Using state-level calibrated models, we estimated the basic reproduction number (R0) and herd immunity threshold for PWID in each state. We performed a meta-analysis of herd immunity thresholds to determine the critical vaccination coverage required to prevent most HAV outbreaks among PWID. RESULTS: Estimates of R0 for HAV infection ranged from 2.2 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.9-2.5) for North Carolina to 5.0 (95% CI, 4.5-5.6) for West Virginia. Corresponding herd immunity thresholds ranged from 55% (95% CI, 47%-61%) for North Carolina to 80% (95% CI, 78%-82%) for West Virginia. Based on the meta-analysis, we estimated a pooled herd immunity threshold of 64% (95% CI, 61%-68%; 90% prediction interval, 52%-76%) among PWID. Using the prediction interval upper bound (76%) and assuming 95% vaccine efficacy, we estimated that vaccination coverage of 80% could prevent most HAV outbreaks. CONCLUSIONS: Hepatitis A vaccination programs in the United States may need to achieve vaccination coverage of at least 80% among PWID in order to prevent most HAV outbreaks among this population.


Assuntos
Usuários de Drogas , Vírus da Hepatite A , Abuso de Substâncias por Via Intravenosa , Humanos , Estados Unidos/epidemiologia , Imunidade Coletiva , Abuso de Substâncias por Via Intravenosa/complicações , Abuso de Substâncias por Via Intravenosa/epidemiologia , Vacinação
4.
J Theor Biol ; 587: 111815, 2024 Jun 21.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38614211

RESUMO

In the current paper we analyse an extended SIRS epidemic model in which immunity at the individual level wanes gradually at exponential rate, but where the waning rate may differ between individuals, for instance as an effect of differences in immune systems. The model also includes vaccination schemes aimed to reach and maintain herd immunity. We consider both the informed situation where the individual waning parameters are known, thus allowing selection of vaccinees being based on both time since last vaccination as well as on the individual waning rate, and the more likely uninformed situation where individual waning parameters are unobserved, thus only allowing vaccination schemes to depend on time since last vaccination. The optimal vaccination policies for both the informed and uniformed heterogeneous situation are derived and compared with the homogeneous waning model (meaning all individuals have the same immunity waning rate), as well as to the classic SIRS model where immunity at the individual level drops from complete immunity to complete susceptibility in one leap. It is shown that the classic SIRS model requires least vaccines, followed by the SIRS with homogeneous gradual waning, followed by the informed situation for the model with heterogeneous gradual waning. The situation requiring most vaccines for herd immunity is the most likely scenario, that immunity wanes gradually with unobserved individual heterogeneity. For parameter values chosen to mimic COVID-19 and assuming perfect initial immunity and cumulative immunity of 12 months, the classic homogeneous SIRS epidemic suggests that vaccinating individuals every 15 months is sufficient to reach and maintain herd immunity, whereas the uninformed case for exponential waning with rate heterogeneity corresponding to a coefficient of variation being 0.5, requires that individuals instead need to be vaccinated every 4.4 months.


Assuntos
COVID-19 , Epidemias , Imunidade Coletiva , Vacinação , Humanos , Imunidade Coletiva/imunologia , COVID-19/imunologia , COVID-19/epidemiologia , COVID-19/prevenção & controle , SARS-CoV-2/imunologia
5.
Stat Med ; 43(15): 2853-2868, 2024 Jul 10.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38726590

RESUMO

Assessing population-level effects of vaccines and other infectious disease prevention measures is important to the field of public health. In infectious disease studies, one person's treatment may affect another individual's outcome, that is, there may be interference between units. For example, the use of bed nets to prevent malaria by one individual may have an indirect effect on other individuals living in close proximity. In some settings, individuals may form groups or clusters where interference only occurs within groups, that is, there is partial interference. Inverse probability weighted estimators have previously been developed for observational studies with partial interference. Unfortunately, these estimators are not well suited for studies with large clusters. Therefore, in this paper, the parametric g-formula is extended to allow for partial interference. G-formula estimators are proposed for overall effects, effects when treated, and effects when untreated. The proposed estimators can accommodate large clusters and do not suffer from the g-null paradox that may occur in the absence of interference. The large sample properties of the proposed estimators are derived assuming no unmeasured confounders and that the partial interference takes a particular form (referred to as 'weak stratified interference'). Simulation studies are presented demonstrating the finite-sample performance of the proposed estimators. The Demographic and Health Survey from the Democratic Republic of the Congo is then analyzed using the proposed g-formula estimators to assess the effects of bed net use on malaria.


Assuntos
Malária , Estudos Observacionais como Assunto , Humanos , Malária/prevenção & controle , Mosquiteiros Tratados com Inseticida/estatística & dados numéricos , Modelos Estatísticos , Simulação por Computador , República Democrática do Congo/epidemiologia
6.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A ; 118(1)2021 01 05.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33443183

RESUMO

Vaccination yields the direct individual benefit of protecting recipients from infectious diseases and also the indirect social benefit of reducing the transmission of infections to others, often referred to as herd immunity This research examines how prosocial concern for vaccination, defined as people's preoccupation with infecting others if they do not vaccinate themselves, motivates vaccination in more and less populated regions of the United States. A nationally representative, longitudinal survey of 2,490 Americans showed that prosocial concern had a larger positive influence on vaccination against influenza in sparser regions, as judged by a region's nonmetropolitan status, lesser population density, and lower proportion of urban land area. Two experiments (total n = 800), one preregistered, provide causal evidence that drawing attention to prosocial (vs. individual) concerns interacted with social density to affect vaccination intentions. Specifically, prosocial concern led to stronger intentions to vaccinate against influenza and COVID-19 but only when social density was low (vs. high). Moderated mediation analyses show that, in low-density conditions, the benefits of inducing prosocial concern were due to greater perceived impact of one's vaccination on others. In this light, public health communications may reap more benefits from emphasizing the prosocial aspects of vaccination in sparser environments.


Assuntos
Vacinas contra COVID-19/administração & dosagem , COVID-19/epidemiologia , Vacinas contra Influenza/administração & dosagem , Influenza Humana/epidemiologia , Adolescente , Adulto , COVID-19/prevenção & controle , COVID-19/transmissão , COVID-19/virologia , Feminino , Humanos , Influenza Humana/prevenção & controle , Influenza Humana/transmissão , Influenza Humana/virologia , Estudos Longitudinais , Masculino , Orthomyxoviridae/genética , Orthomyxoviridae/imunologia , Densidade Demográfica , Probabilidade , Saúde Pública , SARS-CoV-2/genética , SARS-CoV-2/imunologia , Estados Unidos/epidemiologia , Vacinação , Adulto Jovem
7.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A ; 118(36)2021 09 07.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34413212

RESUMO

Recent evidence suggests that vaccination hesitancy is too high in many countries to sustainably contain COVID-19. Using a factorial survey experiment administered to 20,500 online respondents in Germany, we assess the effectiveness of three strategies to increase vaccine uptake, namely, providing freedoms, financial remuneration, and vaccination at local doctors. Our results suggest that all three strategies can increase vaccination uptake on the order of two to three percentage points (PP) overall and five PP among the undecided. The combined effects could be as high as 13 PP for this group. The returns from different strategies vary across age groups, however, with older cohorts more responsive to local access and younger cohorts most responsive to enhanced freedoms for vaccinated citizens.


Assuntos
Vacinas contra COVID-19/administração & dosagem , COVID-19/prevenção & controle , COVID-19/psicologia , Vacinação em Massa/psicologia , Motivação/ética , Recusa de Vacinação/psicologia , Adulto , Fatores Etários , Idoso , COVID-19/epidemiologia , COVID-19/virologia , Feminino , Alemanha/epidemiologia , Humanos , Masculino , Vacinação em Massa/economia , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Modelos Psicológicos , SARS-CoV-2/patogenicidade , Inquéritos e Questionários
8.
Cent Eur J Public Health ; 32(1): 58-62, 2024 Mar.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38669159

RESUMO

Regarding the vaccination of children, it can be said that there are basically three vaccination policies in the world, one of which is usually used in particular country depending on the national legislation. These are the mandatory vaccination policy, mandatory vaccination policy for school entry and recommended vaccination policy. The mandatory vaccination policy and the mandatory vaccination policy for school entry face obstacles consisting of conflicts between fundamental human rights and freedoms. This is, for example, a conflict between the right to health and the right to life on the one hand and the right to protect the inviolability of the person and body integrity or the right to personal freedom, freedom of movement, residence, etc., on the other. Another issue is the right to undisrupted school attendance, based on both compulsory schooling and the right to education. This article looks at different approaches to the vaccination of children in different countries. It provides an illustrative comparison of approaches to vaccination of children in selected countries. It is obvious that the essential problems with organizing and ensuring the vaccination of children are and will be associated with the indicated conflicts of fundamental human rights. It is therefore necessary to search and try to find the optimal policy for undergoing the necessary vaccinations and thereby creating herd immunity, of course for those infectious diseases where this is possible. These efforts are necessary for sufficiently effective protection of individual and public health.


Assuntos
Direitos Humanos , Vacinação Compulsória , Criança , Humanos , Política de Saúde , Direitos Humanos/legislação & jurisprudência , Programas de Imunização/legislação & jurisprudência , Vacinação Compulsória/legislação & jurisprudência , Instituições Acadêmicas/legislação & jurisprudência
9.
Annu Rev Microbiol ; 72: 521-549, 2018 09 08.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30200849

RESUMO

Streptococcus pneumoniae (the pneumococcus) is a nasopharyngeal commensal and respiratory pathogen. Most isolates express a capsule, the species-wide diversity of which has been immunologically classified into ∼100 serotypes. Capsule polysaccharides have been combined into multivalent vaccines widely used in adults, but the T cell independence of the antibody response means they are not protective in infants. Polysaccharide conjugate vaccines (PCVs) trigger a T cell-dependent response through attaching a carrier protein to capsular polysaccharides. The immune response stimulated by PCVs in infants inhibits carriage of vaccine serotypes (VTs), resulting in population-wide herd immunity. These were replaced in carriage by non-VTs. Nevertheless, PCVs drove reductions in infant pneumococcal disease, due to the lower mean invasiveness of the postvaccination bacterial population; age-varying serotype invasiveness resulted in a smaller reduction in adult disease. Alternative vaccines being tested in trials are designed to provide species-wide protection through stimulating innate and cellular immune responses, alongside antibodies to conserved antigens.


Assuntos
Infecções Pneumocócicas/microbiologia , Infecções Pneumocócicas/prevenção & controle , Vacinas Pneumocócicas/imunologia , Streptococcus pneumoniae/classificação , Streptococcus pneumoniae/imunologia , Anticorpos Antibacterianos/sangue , Cápsulas Bacterianas/imunologia , Portador Sadio/imunologia , Portador Sadio/microbiologia , Portador Sadio/prevenção & controle , Humanos , Imunidade Celular , Imunidade Coletiva , Imunidade Inata , Infecções Pneumocócicas/imunologia , Vacinas Pneumocócicas/administração & dosagem , Vacinas Pneumocócicas/isolamento & purificação , Dinâmica Populacional , Sorogrupo , Vacinas Conjugadas/administração & dosagem , Vacinas Conjugadas/imunologia , Vacinas Conjugadas/isolamento & purificação
10.
Theor Popul Biol ; 152: 23-38, 2023 08.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37150257

RESUMO

Health perceptions and health-related behaviors can change at the population level as cultures evolve. In the last decade, despite the proven efficacy of vaccines, the developed world has seen a resurgence of vaccine-preventable diseases (VPDs) such as measles, pertussis, and polio. Vaccine hesitancy, which is influenced by historical, political, and socio-cultural forces, is believed to be a primary factor responsible for decreasing vaccine coverage, thereby increasing the risk and occurrence of VPD outbreaks. Behavior change models have been increasingly employed to understand disease dynamics and intervention effectiveness. However, since health behaviors are culturally influenced, it is valuable to examine them within a cultural evolution context. Here, using a mathematical modeling framework, we explore the effects of cultural evolution on vaccine hesitancy and vaccination behavior. With this model, we shed light on facets of cultural evolution (vertical transmission, community influences, homophily, etc.) that promote the spread of vaccine hesitancy, ultimately affecting levels of vaccination coverage and VPD outbreak risk in a population. In addition, we present our model as a generalizable framework for exploring cultural evolution when humans' beliefs influence, but do not strictly dictate, their behaviors. This model offers a means of exploring how parents' potentially conflicting beliefs and cultural traits could affect their children's health and fitness. We show that vaccine confidence and vaccine-conferred benefits can both be driving forces of vaccine coverage. We also demonstrate that an assortative preference among vaccine-hesitant individuals can lead to increased vaccine hesitancy and lower vaccine coverage.


Assuntos
Evolução Cultural , Vacinas , Criança , Humanos , Hesitação Vacinal , Aceitação pelo Paciente de Cuidados de Saúde , Modelos Teóricos , Vacinação
11.
BMC Infect Dis ; 23(1): 265, 2023 Apr 26.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37101126

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Viral acute gastroenteritis (AG) is detected worldwide annually. Outbreaks caused by viruses associated with gastroenteritis have been reported repeatedly at the same facilities in Yokohama, Japan over several years. We investigated the statuses of these repeated outbreaks to consider herd immunity at the facility level. METHODS: Between September 2007 and August 2017, 1459 AG outbreaks were reported at 1099 facilities. Stool samples were collected for virological testing, and the norovirus gene was amplified and sequenced to determine the genotype using the N-terminal region of the capsid. RESULTS: The outbreaks were caused by norovirus, sapovirus, rotavirus A, and rotavirus C. Norovirus was consistently predominant over the 10-year period. Of 1099 facilities, 227 reported multiple outbreaks, of which norovirus-only combinations accounted for 76.2%. More outbreaks were due to different genotype combinations than the same genotype combinations. For facilities that experienced two norovirus outbreaks, the average interval between outbreaks was longer for groups with the same combinations than for groups with different genogroup or genotype combinations, although no statistically significant differences were observed. At 44 facilities, outbreaks occurred repeatedly during the same AG season, and most exhibited combinations of different norovirus genotypes or viruses. Among 49 combinations with the same norovirus genotype at the same facilities over 10 years, the most prevalent genotypes were combinations of genogroup II genotype 4 (GII.4), followed by GII.2, GII.6, GII.3, GII.14, and GI.3. The mean interval between outbreaks was 31.2 ± 26.8 months for all combinations, and the mean intervals were longer for non-GII.4 genotype cases than for GII.4 cases, and statistically significant differences were observed (t-test, P < 0.05). Additionally, these average intervals were longer for kindergarten/nursery schools and primary schools than for nursing homes for older adults (t-test, P < 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: Repeated AG outbreaks at the same facilities in Yokohama during the 10-year study period included mainly norovirus combinations. Herd immunity at the facility level was maintained for at least the same AG season. Norovirus genotype-specific herd immunity was maintained for an average of 31.2 months during the study period, and these intervals differed depending on genotype.


Assuntos
Infecções por Caliciviridae , Enterite , Gastroenterite , Norovirus , Vírus , Humanos , Idoso , Norovirus/genética , Imunidade Coletiva , Infecções por Caliciviridae/epidemiologia , Gastroenterite/epidemiologia , Enterite/epidemiologia , Vírus/genética , Genótipo , Surtos de Doenças , Filogenia , RNA Viral/genética , Fezes
12.
Eur J Epidemiol ; 38(3): 237-242, 2023 Mar.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36738380

RESUMO

Neither vaccination nor natural infection result in long-lasting protection against SARS-COV-2 infection and transmission, but both reduce the risk of severe COVID-19. To generate insights into optimal vaccination strategies for prevention of severe COVID-19 in the population, we extended a Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed (SEIR) mathematical model to compare the impact of vaccines that are highly protective against severe COVID-19 but not against infection and transmission, with those that block SARS-CoV-2 infection. Our analysis shows that vaccination strategies focusing on the prevention of severe COVID-19 are more effective than those focusing on creating of herd immunity. Key uncertainties that would affect the choice of vaccination strategies are: (1) the duration of protection against severe disease, (2) the protection against severe disease from variants that escape vaccine-induced immunity, (3) the incidence of long-COVID and level of protection provided by the vaccine, and (4) the rate of serious adverse events following vaccination, stratified by demographic variables.


Assuntos
COVID-19 , Vacinas , Humanos , SARS-CoV-2 , Síndrome de COVID-19 Pós-Aguda , COVID-19/epidemiologia , COVID-19/prevenção & controle , Vacinação
13.
J Math Biol ; 87(6): 83, 2023 11 08.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37938449

RESUMO

The disease-induced herd immunity level [Formula: see text] is the fraction of the population that must be infected by an epidemic to ensure that a new epidemic among the remaining susceptible population is not supercritical. For a homogeneously mixing population [Formula: see text] equals the classical herd immunity level [Formula: see text], which is the fraction of the population that must be vaccinated in advance of an epidemic so that the epidemic is not supercritical. For most forms of heterogeneous mixing [Formula: see text], sometimes dramatically so. For an SEIR (susceptible [Formula: see text] exposed [Formula: see text] infective [Formula: see text] recovered) model of an epidemic among a population that is partitioned into households, in which individuals mix uniformly within households and, in addition, uniformly at a much lower rate in the population at large, we show that [Formula: see text] unless variability in the household size distribution is sufficiently large. Thus, introducing household structure into a model typically has the opposite effect on disease-induced herd immunity than most other forms of population heterogeneity. We reach this conclusion by considering an approximation [Formula: see text] of [Formula: see text], supported by numerical studies using real-world household size distributions. For [Formula: see text], we prove that [Formula: see text] when all households have size n, and conjecture that this inequality holds for any common household size n. We prove results comparing [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text] for epidemics which are highly infectious within households, and also for epidemics which are weakly infectious within households.


Assuntos
Epidemias , Imunidade Coletiva , Humanos , Epidemias/prevenção & controle
14.
Simulation ; 99(2): 127-135, 2023 Feb.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36751401

RESUMO

Despite advances in clinical care for the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, population-wide interventions are vital to effectively manage the pandemic due to its rapid spread and the emergence of different variants. One of the most important interventions to control the spread of the disease is vaccination. In this study, an extended Susceptible-Infected Healed (SIR) model based on System Dynamics was designed, considering the factors affecting the rate of spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. The model predicts how long it will take to reach 70% herd immunity based on the number of vaccines administered. The designed simulation model is modeled in AnyLogic 8.7.2 program. The model was performed for three different vaccine supply scenarios and for Turkey with ~83 million population. The results show that, with a monthly supply of 15 million vaccines, social immunity reached the target value of 70% in 161 days, while this number was 117 days for 30 million vaccines and 98 days for 40 million vaccines.

15.
Nonlinear Dyn ; 111(4): 3937-3952, 2023.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36339320

RESUMO

An SVEIR SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant model is proposed to provide some insights to coordinate non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and vaccination. Mathematically, we define the basic reproduction number R 0 and the effective reproduction number R e to measure the infection potential of Omicron variant and formulate an optimal disease control strategy. Our inversion results imply that the sick period of Omicron variant in the United States is longer than that of Delta variant in India. The decrease in the infectious period of the infection with infectiousness implies that the risk of hospitalization is reduced; but the increasing period of the infection with non-infectiousness signifies that Omicron variant lengthens the period of nucleic acid test being negative. Optimistically, Omicron's death rate is only a quarter of Delta's. Moreover, we forecast that the cumulative cases will exceed 100 million in the United States on February 28, 2022, and the daily confirmed cases will reach a peak on February 2, 2022. The results of parameters sensitivity analysis imply that NPIs are helpful to reduce the number of confirmed cases. In particular, NPIs are indispensable even if all the people were vaccinated when the efficiency of vaccine is relatively low. By simulating the relationships of the effective reproduction number R e , the vaccination rate and the efficacy of vaccine, we find that it is impossible to achieve the herd immunity without NPIs while the efficiency of vaccine is lower than 88.7 % . Therefore, the herd immunity area is defined by the evolution of relationships between the vaccination rate and the efficacy of vaccine. Finally, we present that the disease-induced mortality rate demonstrates the periodic oscillation and an almost periodic function is deduced to match the curve. A discussion completes the paper.

16.
Eur J Oper Res ; 304(1): 339-352, 2023 Jan 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33776195

RESUMO

Post COVID-19 vaccine development, nations are now getting ready to face another challenge: how to effectively distribute vaccines amongst the masses to quickly achieve herd immunity against the infection. According to some experts, herd immunity for COVID-19 can be achieved by inoculating 67% of the population. India may find it difficult to achieve this service level target, owing to several infrastructural deficiencies in its vaccine supply chain. Effect of these deficiencies is to cause frequent lead time disruptions. In this context, we develop a novel modelling approach to identify few nodes, which require additional inventory allocations (strategic inventory reserves) to ensure minimum service level (67%) under the possibility of lead time disruptions. Later, through an illustrative case study on distribution of Japanese Encephalitis vaccine, we identify conditions under which strategic inventory reserve policy cannot be practically implemented to meet service level targets. Nodes fulfilling these conditions are termed as critical nodes and must be overhauled structurally to make the implementation of strategic inventory policy practically viable again. Structural overhauling may entail installation of better cold storage facilities, purchasing more quality transport vans, improving reliability of transport network, and skills of cold storage manager by training. Ideally, conditions for identifying critical nodes for COVID-19 vaccine distribution must be derived separately by substituting COVID-19 specific parametric values in our model. In the absence of the required data for COVID-19 scenario, JE specific criteria can be used heuristically to identify critical nodes and structurally overhaul them later for efficiently achieving service level targets.

17.
Math Comput Simul ; 205: 600-618, 2023 Mar.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36312512

RESUMO

In this paper, a mathematical model with a standard incidence rate is proposed to assess the role of media such as facebook, television, radio and tweeter in the mitigation of the outbreak of COVID-19. The basic reproduction number R 0 which is the threshold dynamics parameter between the disappearance and the persistence of the disease has been calculated. And, it is obvious to see that it varies directly to the number of hospitalized people, asymptomatic, symptomatic carriers and the impact of media coverage. The local and the global stabilities of the model have also been investigated by using the Routh-Hurwitz criterion and the Lyapunov's functional technique, respectively. Furthermore, we have performed a local sensitivity analysis to assess the impact of any variation in each one of the model parameter on the threshold R 0 and the course of the disease accordingly. We have also computed the approximative rate at which herd immunity will occur when any control measure is implemented. To finish, we have presented some numerical simulation results by using some available data from the literature to corroborate our theoretical findings.

18.
Appl Math Model ; 114: 447-465, 2023 Feb.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36281307

RESUMO

The effectiveness of control interventions against COVID-19 is threatened by the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern. We present a mathematical model for studying the transmission dynamics of two of these variants (Delta and Omicron) in the United States, in the presence of vaccination, treatment of individuals with clinical symptoms of the disease and the use of face masks. The model is parameterized and cross-validated using observed daily case data for COVID-19 in the United States for the period from November 2021 (when Omicron first emerged) to March 2022. Rigorous qualitative analysis of the model shows that the disease-free equilibrium of the model is locally-asymptotically stable when the control reproduction number of the model (denoted by R c ) is less than one. This equilibrium is shown to be globally-asymptotically stable for a special case of the model, where disease-induced mortality is negligible and both vaccine-derived immunity in fully-vaccinated individuals and natural immunity do not wane, when the associated reproduction number is less than one. The epidemiological implication of the latter result is that the combined vaccination-boosting strategy can lead to the elimination of the pandemic if its implementation can bring (and maintain) the associated reproduction number to a value less than one. An analytical expression for the vaccine-derived herd immunity threshold is derived. Using this expression, together with the baseline values of the parameters of the parameterized model, we showed that the vaccine-derived herd immunity can be achieved in the United States (so that the pandemic will be eliminated) if at least 68 % of the population is fully-vaccinated with two of the three vaccines approved for use in the United States (Pfizer or Moderna vaccine). Furthermore, this study showed (as of the time of writing in March 2022) that the control reproduction number of the Omicron variant was approximately 3.5 times that of the Delta variant (the reproduction of the latter is computed to be ≈ 0.2782 ), indicating that Delta had practically died out and that Omicron has competitively-excluded Delta (to become the predominant variant in the United States). Based on our analysis and parameterization at the time of writing of this paper (March 2022), our study suggests that SARS-CoV-2 elimination is feasible by June 2022 if the current baseline level of the coverage of fully-vaccinated individuals is increased by about 20 % . The prospect of pandemic elimination is significantly improved if vaccination is combined with a face mask strategy that prioritizes moderately effective and high-quality masks. Having a high percentage of the populace wearing the moderately-effective surgical mask is more beneficial to the community than having low percentage of the populace wearing the highly-effective N95 masks. We showed that waning natural and vaccine-derived immunity (if considered individually) offer marginal impact on disease burden, except for the case when they wane at a much faster rate (e.g., within three months), in comparison to the baseline (estimated to be within 9 months to a year). Treatment of symptomatic individuals has marginal effect in reducing daily cases of SARS-CoV-2, in comparison to the baseline, but it has significant impact in reducing daily hospitalizations. Furthermore, while treatment significantly reduces daily hospitalizations (and, consequently, deaths), the prospects of COVID-19 elimination in the United States are significantly enhanced if investments in control resources are focused on mask usage and vaccination rather than on treatment.

19.
Biol Sport ; 40(4): 1249-1258, 2023 Oct.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37867752

RESUMO

The 2022 FIFA World Cup (FIFA-WC) held in Qatar presented unique challenges, given the potential for rapid transmission of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) among over 1.4 million international fans attending the event. This study aimed to investigate the impact of the FIFA-WC 2022 on COVID-19 cases, deaths, and reproduction rate (R0) in Qatar. Additionally, it sought to understand the implications of hosting large-scale events during a pandemic without COVID-19 restrictive measures, providing critical insights for future decision-making. Data from "Our World in Data" were analysed for three distinct periods: one week before the FIFA-WC (week-preWC), the four weeks of the event (week-1WC to week-4WC), and one week after (week-postWC). The results revealed a significant increase in COVID-19 cases during week-3WC and week-4WC (compared to week-preWC) in Qatar, followed by a subsequent decrease during the week-postWC. Notably, Qatar experienced a more pronounced surge in positive cases than the global trend. Regarding COVID-19-related deaths, Qatar's peak occurred during week-2WC, while globally deaths peaked from week-3WC to week-postWC. Nevertheless, Qatar's death toll remained relatively low compared to the global trend throughout the event. The findings highlight that the FIFA-WC 2022 in Qatar demonstrated the feasibility of organizing large-scale sporting events during a pandemic with appropriate measures in place. They emphasize the importance of high vaccination coverage, continuous monitoring, and effective collaboration between event organizers, healthcare authorities, and governments. As such, the event serves as a valuable model for future gatherings, underlining the significance of evidence-based decision-making and comprehensive public health preparedness.

20.
Cent Eur J Immunol ; 48(4): 311-321, 2023.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38558566

RESUMO

Introduction: This study aimed to evaluate the long-term effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccination in healthcare workers by analyzing the population's response to the vaccine after two years, based on anti-SARS-CoV-2 protein S antibody levels. Additionally, the study aimed to assess the impact of basic factors on antibody levels. Material and methods: A total of 4,090 healthcare workers were included in the study, and their antibody levels were measured using ELISA to detect anti-SARS-CoV-2 immunoglobulin G (IgG). Statistical analysis was conducted to examine the influence of COVID-19 infection, vaccination status, and number of vaccine doses on antibody concentrations. Results and Conclusion: The majority of participants (85.1%) received the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine, while a smaller percentage chose vector vaccines such as AstraZeneca and Johnson & Johnson. The incidence of COVID-19 among vaccinated individuals was relatively low for all vaccines, confirming their effectiveness in preventing symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection. The study observed variations in IgG antibody levels within the study population, with only 0.46% of individuals testing negative for the presence of antibodies. The average anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgG values showed significant differences across consecutive 3-month periods following infection or vaccination, with a gradual decrease over time. Notably, the most significant changes in antibody levels were observed within the first 6 months (mean values ranged from 3647.11 BAU/ml to 2601.49 BAU/ml). Subsequently, minor fluctuations were observed, with mean antibody values hovering around 2000 BAU/ml. The differences between average anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgG values between consecutive 3-month periods from disease onset were statistically significant.

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