The Cognition/Metacognition Trade-Off.

Integration to boundary is an optimal decision algorithm that accumulates evidence until the posterior reaches a decision boundary, resulting in the fastest decisions for a target accuracy. Here, we demonstrated that this advantage incurs a cost in metacognitive accuracy (confidence), generating a cognition/metacognition trade-off. Using computational modeling, we found that integration to a fixed boundary results in less variability in evidence integration and thus reduces metacognitive accuracy, compared with a collapsing-boundary or a random-timer strategy. We examined how decision strategy affects metacognitive accuracy in three cross-domain experiments, in which 102 university students completed a free-response session (evidence terminated by the participant's response) and an interrogation session (fixed number of evidence samples controlled by the experimenter). In both sessions, participants observed a sequence of evidence and reported their choice and confidence. As predicted, the interrogation protocol (preventing integration to boundary) enhanced metacognitive accuracy. We also found that in the free-response sessions, participants integrated evidence to a collapsing boundary-a strategy that achieves an efficient compromise between optimizing choice and metacognitive accuracy.

Two-Year-Olds' Eye Movements Reflect Confidence in Their Understanding of Words.

We studied the fundamental issue of whether children evaluate the reliability of their language interpretation, that is, their confidence in understanding words. In two experiments, 2-year-olds (Experiment 1: N = 50; Experiment 2: N = 60) saw two objects and heard one of them being named; both objects were then hidden behind screens and children were asked to look toward the named object, which was eventually revealed. When children knew the label used, they showed increased postdecision persistence after a correct compared with an incorrect anticipatory look, a marker of confidence in word comprehension (Experiment 1). When interacting with an unreliable speaker, children showed accurate word comprehension but reduced confidence in the accuracy of their own choice, indicating that children's confidence estimates are influenced by social information (Experiment 2). Thus, by the age of 2 years, children can estimate their confidence during language comprehension, long before they can talk about their linguistic skills.

Knowing who knows: Metacognitive and causal learning abilities guide infants' selective social learning.

Given the widespread interest in the development of children's selective social learning, there is mounting evidence suggesting that infants prefer to learn from competent informants (Poulin-Dubois & Brosseau-Liard, Current Directions in Psychological Science, 2016, 25). However, little research has been dedicated to understanding how this selectivity develops. The present study investigated whether causal learning and precursor metacognitive abilities govern discriminant learning in a classic word-learning paradigm. Infants were exposed to a speaker who accurately (reliable condition) or inaccurately (unreliable condition) labeled familiar objects and were subsequently tested on their ability to learn a novel word from the informant. The predictive power of causal learning skills and precursor metacognition (as measured through decision confidence) on infants' word learning was examined across both reliable and unreliable conditions. Results suggest that infants are more inclined to accept an unreliable speaker's testimony on a word learning task when they also lack confidence in their own knowledge on a task measuring their metacognitive ability. Additionally, when uncertain, infants draw on causal learning abilities to better learn the association between a label and a novel toy. This study is the first to shed light on the role of causal learning and precursor metacognitive judgments in infants' abilities to engage in selective trust.

Confidence estimation as a stochastic process in a neurodynamical system of decision making.

Evaluation of confidence about one's knowledge is key to the brain's ability to monitor cognition. To investigate the neural mechanism of confidence assessment, we examined a biologically realistic spiking network model and found that it reproduced salient behavioral observations and single-neuron activity data from a monkey experiment designed to study confidence about a decision under uncertainty. Interestingly, the model predicts that changes of mind can occur in a mnemonic delay when confidence is low; the probability of changes of mind increases (decreases) with task difficulty in correct (error) trials. Furthermore, a so-called "hard-easy effect" observed in humans naturally emerges, i.e., behavior shows underconfidence (underestimation of correct rate) for easy or moderately difficult tasks and overconfidence (overestimation of correct rate) for very difficult tasks. Importantly, in the model, confidence is computed using a simple neural signal in individual trials, without explicit representation of probability functions. Therefore, even a concept of metacognition can be explained by sampling a stochastic neural activity pattern.

You'd better think twice: post-decision perceptual confidence.

Current findings suggest that confidence emerges only after decision making. However, the temporal and neural dynamics of the emergence of post-decision confidence--a metacognitive judgement--are not fully explored. To gain insight into the dynamics of post-decision confidence processing and to disentangle the processes underlying confidence judgements and decision making, we applied a tactile discrimination task during functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI). Our results revealed that reaction times to post-decision confidence depend on the level of confidence, suggesting that post-decision confidence in a perceptual choice is not processed in parallel to perceptual decision making. Moreover, we demonstrated by the parametric analysis of fMRI data that post-decisionally modelled confidence processing can be distinguished from processes related to decision making through anatomical location and through the pattern of neural activity. In contrast to perceptual decision making, post-decision confidence appears to be strictly allocated to a prefrontal network of brain regions, primarily the anterior and dorsolateral prefrontal cortex, areas that have been related to metacognition. Moreover, the processes underlying decision making and post-decision confidence may share recruitment of the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex, although the former probably has distinct functions with regard to processing of perceptual choices and post-decision confidence. Thus, this is the first fMRI study to disentangle the processes underlying post-decision confidence and decision making on behavioural, neuroanatomical, and neurofunctional levels. With regard to the temporal evolution of post-decision confidence, results of the present study provide strong support for the most recent theoretical models of human perceptual decision making, and thus provide implications for investigating confidence in perceptual paradigms.

Decision made, good feelings fade? How noise and multitasking affect decision confidence and well-being.

Objectives. This study aimed to examine the influence of office noise and multitasking on decision confidence, overconfidence, satisfaction, calibration and affective well-being. Detrimental effects of noise and multitasking on perceived annoyance and concentration are well documented. Little is known about whether decision confidence and well-being during decisions are also affected. Methods. The study was a between-subjects laboratory experiment (n = 109) involving a noise condition with office noise presented through headphones (A-weighted equivalent sound pressure level of LAeq = 60 dB), a multitasking condition with an email-sorting task as the primary task and a control condition. Results. Compared to the control condition, subjects in the noise and multitasking conditions exhibited overestimation of confidence. There was also a significant decrease in well-being for people in the noise condition. Calibration was not affected. Conclusion. In the case of noise, well-being is affected even before the thresholds of workplace legislation are reached. Undue overconfidence can have detrimental effects upon subsequent decisions and risk-taking. Findings suggest that there should be greater consideration of environmental influences during decision-making in work environments.

The late positive event-related potential component is time locked to the decision in recognition memory tasks.

Two event-related potential (ERP) components are commonly observed in recognition memory tasks: the Frontal Negativity (FN400) and the Late Positive Component (LPC). These components are widely interpreted as neural correlates of familiarity and recollection, respectively. However, the interpretation of LPC effects is complicated by inconsistent results regarding the timing of ERP amplitude differences. There are also mixed findings regarding how LPC amplitudes covary with decision confidence. Critically, LPC effects have almost always been measured using fixed time windows relative to memory probe stimulus onset, yet it has not been determined whether LPC effects are time locked to the stimulus or the recognition memory decision. To investigate this, we analysed a large (n = 132) existing dataset recorded during recognition memory tasks with old/new decisions followed by post-decisional confidence ratings. We used ERP deconvolution to disentangle contributions to LPC effects (defined as differences between hits and correct rejections) that were time locked to either the stimulus or the vocal old/new response. We identified a left-lateralised parietal LPC effect that was time locked to the vocal response rather than probe stimulus onset. We also isolated a response-locked, midline parietal ERP correlate of confidence that influenced measures of LPC amplitudes at left parietal electrodes. Our findings demonstrate that, contrary to widespread assumptions, the LPC effect is time locked to the recognition memory decision and is best measured using response-locked ERPs. By extension, differences in response time distributions across conditions of interest may lead to substantial measurement biases when analysing stimulus-locked ERPs. Our findings highlight important confounding factors that further complicate the interpretation of existing stimulus-locked LPC effects as neural correlates of recollection. We recommend that future studies adopt our analytic approach to better isolate LPC effects and their sensitivity to manipulations in recognition memory tasks.

The Effect of Asymmetric Intersexual Selection Power Perception on the Choice Deferral Behavior of Men and Women.

Consumers always delay their choices, which can cause companies to suffer tremendous losses. One reason for such delay is a lack of confidence. Confidence in consumer decision-making can stem from many sources, including social power. In this research, we find that selection power with regard to choosing a romantic mate increases consumers' decision confidence and, in turn, decreases choice deferral. We define the concept of intersexual selection power (ISP), and propose certain factors that can induce individuals' asymmetric ISP. We conducted four studies to explore four factors that could influence consumers' ISP perceptions (sex, mating cues, sex ratio, and mate value) and the effects of such power perception on choice deferral. The results showed that individuals with high ISP perception have more decision confidence and a lower choice deferral rate than individuals with low ISP perception regardless of the way in which choice deferral is measured.

I know that I know. But do I know that I do not know?

Metacognition-the ability of individuals to monitor one's own cognitive performance and decisions-is often studied empirically based on the retrospective confidence ratings. In experimental research, participants are asked to report how sure they are in their response, or to report how well their performance in high-level cognitive or low-level perceptual tasks is. These retrospective confidence ratings are used as a measure of monitoring effectiveness: larger difference in confidence ratings assigned to correct and incorrect responses reflects better ability to estimate the likelihood of making an error by an experiment participant, or better metacognitive monitoring ability. We discuss this underlying assumption and provide some methodological consideration that might interfere with interpretation of results, depending on what is being asked to evaluate, how the confidence response is elicited, and the overall proportion of different trial types within one experimental session. We conclude that mixing trials on which decision confidence is assigned when positive evidence needs to be evaluated and the trials on which absence of positive evidence needs to be evaluated should be avoided. These considerations might be important when designing experimental work to explore metacognitive efficiency using retrospective confidence ratings.

Changing Decisions: The Interaction between Framing and Decoy Effects.

BACKGROUND: Cognitive biases are popular topics in psychology and marketing, as they refer to systematic cognitive tendencies in human thinking that deviate from logical and rational reasoning. The framing effect (FE) and the decoy effect (DE) are examples of cognitive biases that can influence decision making and consumer preferences. The FE involves how options are presented, while the DE involves the addition of a third option that influences the choice between the other two options. METHODS: We investigated the interaction between the FE and the DE in the case of both incongruent (ID) and congruent (CD) decoys in a sample of undergraduates (n = 471). The study had a two (positive vs. negative valence) × three (original, congruent decoy, incongruent decoy) within-subject design. RESULTS: The ID option reduces the FE in both positive- and negative-framed conditions compared to the controls, while adding the CD option increases the FE only in the positive-framed condition. Additionally, the inclusion of the CD option enhances the level of decision confidence, whereas no significant differences were found in the ID condition. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings gave new insights into the interplay between two of the most frequent cognitive biases.

The effect of incentives on intertemporal choice: Choice, confidence, and eye movements.

Despite various studies examining intertemporal choice with hypothetical rewards due to problematic real reward delivery, there remains no substantial evidence on the effect of the incentives on the decision confidence and cognitive process in intertemporal choice and no comprehensive exploration on the loss domain. Hence, this study conducts an eye-tracking experiment to examine the effect of incentive approach and measure participants' decision confidence using a between-subject design in both gain and loss domains. Results replicated previous findings which show incentives do not affect intertemporal choice in the gain domain. In contrast, in the loss domain, participants in the incentivized group were more likely to choose the larger-later options than those in the non-incentivized group. Furthermore, the decision confidence and the mean fixation duration differed between the incentivized and non-incentivized groups in both gain and loss domains. These findings allow for a better understanding of the effect of incentives on intertemporal choice and provide valuable information for the design of incentives in future intertemporal experiments.

Elite Players Invest Additional Time for Making Better Embodied Choices.

Expert athletes are determined to make faster and better decisions, as revealed in several simple heuristic studies using verbal reports or micro-movement responses. However, heuristic decision-making experiments that require motor responses, also being considered as the embodied-choice experiments, are still underrepresented. Furthermore, it is less understood how decision time and confidence depend on the type of embodied choices players make. To scrutinize the decision-making processes (i.e., decision time, decision confidence), this study investigated the embodied choices of male athletes with different expertise in a close-to-real-life environment; 22 elite (M age = 17.59 yrs., SD = 3.67), and 22 amateur (M age = 20.71 yrs., SD = 8.54) team handball players performed a sport-specific embodied-choice test. Attack sequences (n = 32) were shown to the players, who had to choose between four provided options by giving a respective sport-specific motor response. We analyzed the frequencies of specific choices and the best choice, as well as the respective decision time and decision confidence. Elite and amateur players differed in the frequencies of specific choices (i.e., forward/tackling; passive blocking), and elite players made the best choice more often. Slower decision times of elite players were revealed in specific choices and in best choices, the confidence of decisions was rated equally high by both player groups. Indications are provided that elite players make better choices rather slower, instead of faster. We suppose this is due to specific sensorimotor interactions and speed-accuracy-tradeoffs in favor of accuracy in elite players. Our findings extend expert decision-making research by using an embodied-choice paradigm, highlighting considerations of decision time and confidence in future experiments.

A meta-learning BCI for estimating decision confidence.

Objective.We investigated whether a recently introduced transfer-learning technique based on meta-learning could improve the performance of brain-computer interfaces (BCIs) for decision-confidence prediction with respect to more traditional machine learning methods.Approach.We adapted the meta-learning by biased regularisation algorithm to the problem of predicting decision confidence from electroencephalography (EEG) and electro-oculogram (EOG) data on a decision-by-decision basis in a difficult target discrimination task based on video feeds. The method exploits previous participants' data to produce a prediction algorithm that is then quickly tuned to new participants. We compared it with with the traditional single-subject training almost universally adopted in BCIs, a state-of-the-art transfer learning technique called domain adversarial neural networks, a transfer-learning adaptation of a zero-training method we used recently for a similar task, and with a simple baseline algorithm.Main results.The meta-learning approach was significantly better than other approaches in most conditions, and much better in situations where limited data from a new participant are available for training/tuning. Meta-learning by biased regularisation allowed our BCI to seamlessly integrate information from past participants with data from a specific user to produce high-performance predictors. Its robustness in the presence of small training sets is a real-plus in BCI applications, as new users need to train the BCI for a much shorter period.Significance.Due to the variability and noise of EEG/EOG data, BCIs need to be normally trained with data from a specific participant. This work shows that even better performance can be obtained using our version of meta-learning by biased regularisation.

The diagnostic certainty levels of junior clinicians: A retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Clinical decision-making is influenced by many factors, including clinicians' perceptions of the certainty around what is the best course of action to pursue. OBJECTIVE: To characterise the documentation of working diagnoses and the associated level of real-time certainty expressed by clinicians and to gauge patient opinion about the importance of research into clinician decision certainty. METHOD: This was a single-centre retrospective cohort study of non-consultant grade clinicians and their assessments of patients admitted from the emergency department between 01 March 2019 and 31 March 2019. De-identified electronic health record proformas were extracted that included the type of diagnosis documented and the certainty adjective used. Patient opinion was canvassed from a focus group. RESULTS: During the study period, 850 clerking proformas were analysed; 420 presented a single diagnosis, while 430 presented multiple diagnoses. Of the 420 single diagnoses, 67 (16%) were documented as either a symptom or physical sign and 16 (4%) were laboratory-result-defined diagnoses. No uncertainty was expressed in 309 (74%) of the diagnoses. Of 430 multiple diagnoses, uncertainty was expressed in 346 (80%) compared to 84 (20%) in which no uncertainty was expressed. The patient focus group were unanimous in their support of this research. CONCLUSION: The documentation of working diagnoses is highly variable among non-consultant grade clinicians. In nearly three quarters of assessments with single diagnoses, no element of uncertainty was implied or quantified. More uncertainty was expressed in multiple diagnoses than single diagnoses. IMPLICATIONS: Increased standardisation of documentation will help future studies to better analyse and quantify diagnostic certainty in both single and multiple working diagnoses. This could lead to subsequent examination of their association with important process or clinical outcome measures.

Perceptual decision confidence is sensitive to forgone physical effort expenditure.

Contemporary theoretical accounts of metacognition propose that action-related information is used in the computation of perceptual decision confidence. We investigated whether the amount of expended physical effort, or the 'motoric sunk cost' of a decision, influences perceptual decision confidence judgements in humans. In particular, we examined whether people feel more confident in decisions which required more effort to report. Forty-two participants performed a luminance discrimination task that involved identifying which of two flickering grayscale squares was brightest. Participants reported their choice by squeezing hand-held dynamometers. Across trials, the effort required to report a decision was varied across three levels (low, medium, high). Critically, participants were only aware of the required effort level on each trial once they had initiated their motor response, meaning that the varying effort requirements could not influence their initial decisions. Following each decision, participants rated their confidence in their choice. We found that participants were more confident in decisions that required greater effort to report. This suggests that humans are sensitive to motoric sunk costs and supports contemporary models of metacognition in which actions inform the computation of decision confidence.

Do performance-monitoring related cortical potentials mediate fluency and difficulty effects on decision confidence?

It remains unclear to what extent the performance-monitoring (PM) processes involved in perceptual decisions are also involved in more complex reasoning decisions. To address this problem, we examined whether PM-related cortical potentials known to correlate with confidence ratings in the context of simple perceptual decisions also correlate with confidence ratings in a more complex reasoning task. In an EEG experiment, 49 participants had to quickly decide whether an equation (e.g. 9 * 7 = 65) was correct or incorrect and then report their confidence in that decision. Task difficulty and response fluency were varied to manipulate confidence. Pooling responses across correct as well as incorrect trials, we analyzed amplitudes of Error-Related Negativity (pooled ERN) and Error Positivity (pooled Pe). We found that pooled ERN but not pooled Pe had a positive significant correlation with decision confidence and that unpooled ERN correlated with confidence for correct, but not for error trials. Further analysis indicated that although pooled ERN correlated with task difficulty, neither pooled or unpooled potentials mediated the effects of difficulty or fluency on confidence. These results suggest that pooled ERN might reflect implicit performance monitoring and that confidence for simple perceptual and complex reasoning decisions may rely on different neural mechanisms.

Dopaminergic and Prefrontal Basis of Learning from Sensory Confidence and Reward Value.

Deciding between stimuli requires combining their learned value with one's sensory confidence. We trained mice in a visual task that probes this combination. Mouse choices reflected not only present confidence and past rewards but also past confidence. Their behavior conformed to a model that combines signal detection with reinforcement learning. In the model, the predicted value of the chosen option is the product of sensory confidence and learned value. We found precise correlates of this variable in the pre-outcome activity of midbrain dopamine neurons and of medial prefrontal cortical neurons. However, only the latter played a causal role: inactivating medial prefrontal cortex before outcome strengthened learning from the outcome. Dopamine neurons played a causal role only after outcome, when they encoded reward prediction errors graded by confidence, influencing subsequent choices. These results reveal neural signals that combine reward value with sensory confidence and guide subsequent learning.

Segregated Co-activation Patterns in the Emergence of Decision Confidence During Visual Perception.

Visual metacognition-the introspection and evaluation of one's own visual perceptual processes-is measured through both decision confidence and "metacognitive efficiency." Metacognitive efficiency refers to an individual's ability to accurately judge incorrect and correct decisions through confidence ratings given their task performance. Previous imaging studies in humans and nonhuman primates reported widely distributed brain regions being involved in decision confidence and metacognition. However, the neural correlates of metacognition are remarkably inconsistent across studies concerning spatial outline. Therefore, this study investigates the neural correlates of visual metacognition by examining co-activation across regions that scale with visual decision confidence. We hypothesized that interacting processes of perceptual and metacognitive performance contribute to the arising decision confidence in distributed, but segregable co-activating brain regions. To test this hypothesis, we performed task-fMRI in healthy humans during a visual backward masking task with four-scale, post-decision confidence ratings. We measured blood oxygenation covariation patterns, which served as a physiological proxy for co-activation across brain regions. Decision confidence ratings and an individual's metacognitive efficiency served as behavioral measures for metacognition. We found three distinct co-activation clusters involved in decision confidence: the first included right-centered fronto-temporal-parietal regions, the second included left temporal and parietal regions, and the left basal forebrain (BF), and the third included cerebellar regions. The right fronto-temporal-parietal cluster including the supplementary eye field and the right basal forebrain showed stronger co-activation in subjects with higher metacognitive efficiency. Our results provide novel evidence for co-activation of widely distributed fronto-parieto-temporal regions involved in visual confidence. The supplementary eye field was the only region that activated for both decision confidence and metacognitive efficiency, suggesting the supplementary eye field plays a key role in visual metacognition. Our results link findings in electrophysiology studies and human fMRI studies and provide evidence that confidence estimates arise from the integration of multiple information processing pathways.

Metacognition-related regions modulate the reactivity effect of confidence ratings on perceptual decision-making.

Prompting confidence ratings following perceptual decision-making could significantly affect the decision-making per se, a phenomenon known as the reactivity effect. The current study aimed to explore the neural substrates underlying the reactivity effect by comparing behavioral and functional magnetic imaging data between when participants making decisions with prompted confidence ratings (DCR+) and when without providing confidence ratings (DCR-). The results showed that DCR+ was associated with longer decision response times (RTs) and higher accuracy than DCR-. The analysis of fMRI data revealed significantly increased activation in the DCR+ condition, relative to the DCR- condition, in multiple metacognition-related regions including the left supplementary motor area, left dorsal anterior cingulate cortex, left opercular part of the inferior frontal gyrus, and bilateral precuneus. Changed beta values (BetaDCR+ minus BetaDCR-) of these clusters were correlated with the changed decision RTs between the two conditions (ΔRT = RTDCR+ - RTDCR-). Psychophysiological interaction analysis revealed increased functional connectivity between the left supplementary motor area and the right inferior parietal lobe in the DCR+ condition than the DCR- condition. Further multiple regression analysis found that ΔRTs was significantly associated with activities in the bilateral dorsal anterior cingulate cortex and supplementary motor area. Together, this study found that provide confidence ratings significantly changed online decision-making while activating multiple metacognition-related regions. The activity of metacognition-related regions may be a crucial part of the neural mechanisms underlying the reactivity effect of confidence ratings on perceptual decision-making.

Independent Neural Activity Patterns for Sensory- and Confidence-Based Information Maintenance during Category-Selective Visual Processing.

Several influential theories of consciousness attempt to explain how, when and where conscious perception arises in the brain. The extent of conscious perception of a stimulus is often probed by asking subjects to provide confidence estimations in their choices in challenging perceptual decision-making tasks. Here, we aimed to dissociate neural patterns of "cognitive" and "sensory" information maintenance by linking category selective visual processes to decision confidence using multivariate decoding techniques on human EEG data. Participants discriminated at-threshold masked face versus house stimuli and reported confidence in their discrimination performance. Three distinct types of category-selective neural activity patterns were observed, dissociable by their timing, scalp topography, relationship with decision confidence, and generalization profile. An early (∼150-200 ms) decoding profile was unrelated to confidence and quickly followed by two distinct decodable patterns of late neural activity (350-500 ms). One pattern was on-diagonal, global and highly related to decision confidence, likely indicating cognitive maintenance of consciously reportable stimulus representations. The other pattern however was off-diagonal, restricted to posterior electrode sites (local), and independent of decision confidence, and therefore may reflect sensory maintenance of category-specific information, possibly operating via recurrent processes within visual cortices. These results highlight that two functionally independent neural processes are operating in parallel, only one of which is related to decision confidence and conscious access.