Cancer incidence, stage shift and survival during the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic: A population-based study in Belgium.

The COVID-19 pandemic was associated with a profound decline in cancer diagnoses in 2020 in Belgium. Disruption in diagnostic and screening services and patient reluctance to visit health facilities led to fewer new cases and concerns that cancers may be diagnosed at more advanced stages and hence have poorer prognosis. Using data from mandatory cancer registration covering all of Belgium, we predicted cancer incidence, stage distribution and 1-year relative survival for 2020 using a Poisson count model over the preceding years, extrapolated to 2020 for 11 common cancer types. We compared these expected values to the observed values in 2020 to specifically quantify the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, accounting for background trends. A significantly lower incidence was observed for cervical, prostate, head and neck, colorectal, bladder and breast cancer, with limited or no recovery of diagnoses in the second half of 2020 for these cancer types. Changes in stage distribution were observed for cervical, prostate, bladder and ovarian and fallopian tube tumours. Generally, changes in stage distribution mainly represented decline in early-stage than in late-stage tumours. One-year relative survival was lower than predicted for lung cancer and colorectal cancer. Stage shifts are hypothesised to result from alterations in access to diagnosis, potentially due to prioritisation of symptomatic patients, and patient reluctance to contact a physician. Since there were over 5000 fewer cancer diagnoses than expected by the end of 2020, it is critical to monitor incidence, stage distribution and survival for these cancers in the coming years.

Using Relative Survival to Estimate the Burden of Kidney Failure.

RATIONALE & OBJECTIVE: Estimates of mortality from kidney failure are misleading because the mortality from kidney failure is inseparable from the mortality attributed to comorbid conditions. We sought to develop an alternative method to reduce the bias in estimating mortality due to kidney failure using life table methods. STUDY DESIGN: Longitudinal cohort study. SETTING & PARTICIPANTS: Using data from the US Renal Data System and the Medicare 5% sample, we identified an incident cohort of patients, age 66+, who first had kidney failure in 2009 and a similar general population cohort without kidney failure. EXPOSURE: Kidney failure. OUTCOME: Death. ANALYTICAL APPROACH: We created comorbidity, age, sex, race, and year-specific life tables to estimate relative survival of patients with incident kidney failure and to attain an estimate of excess kidney failure-related deaths. Estimates were compared with those based on standard life tables (not adjusted for comorbidity). RESULTS: The analysis included 31,944 adults with kidney failure with a mean age of 77±7 years. The 5-year relative survival was 31% using standard life tables (adjusted for age, sex, race, and year) versus 36% using life tables also adjusted for comorbidities. Compared with other chronic diseases, patients with kidney failure have among the lowest relative survival. Patients with incident kidney failure ages 66-70 and 76-80 have a survival comparable to adults without kidney failure roughly 86-90 and 91-95 years old, respectively. LIMITATIONS: Relative survival estimates can be improved by narrowing the specificity of the covariates collected (eg, disease severity and ethnicity). CONCLUSIONS: Estimates of survival relative to a matched general population partition the mortality due to kidney failure from other causes of death. Results highlight the immense burden of kidney failure on mortality and the importance of disease prevention efforts among older adults. PLAIN-LANGUAGE SUMMARY: Estimates of death due to kidney failure can be misleading because death information from kidney failure is intertwined with death due to aging and other chronic diseases. Life tables are an old method, commonly used by actuaries and demographers to describe the life expectancy of a population. We developed life tables specific to a patient's age, sex, year, race, and comorbidity. Survival is derived from the life tables as the percentage of patients who are still alive in a specified period. By comparing survival of patients with kidney failure to the survival of people from the general population, we estimate that patients with kidney failure have one-third the chance of survival in 5 years compared with people with similar demographics and comorbidity but without kidney failure. The importance of this measure is that it provides a quantifiable estimate of the immense mortality burden of kidney failure.

Penile cancer care in the Netherlands: increased incidence, centralisation, and improved survival.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate penile squamous cell carcinoma (PSCC) incidence and centralisation trends in the Netherlands over the past three decades, as well as the effect of centralisation of PSCC care on survival. PATIENTS AND METHODS: In the Netherlands PSCC care is largely centralised in one national centre of expertise (Netherlands Cancer Institute [NCI], Amsterdam). For this study, the Netherlands Cancer Registry, an independent nationwide cancer registry, provided per-patient data on age, clinical and pathological tumour staging, follow-up, and vital status. Patients with treatment at the NCI were identified and compared to patients who were treated at all other centres. The age-standardised incidence rate was calculated with the European Standard Population. The probability of death due to PSCC was estimated using the relative survival. Multivariable Cox regression analysis was performed to evaluate predictors of survival. RESULTS: A total of 3160 patients were diagnosed with PSCC between 1990 and 2020, showing a rising incidence (P < 0.001). Annual caseload increased at the NCI (1% in 1990, 65% in 2020) and decreased at other (regional) centres (99% to 35%). Despite a relatively high percentage of patients with T2-4 (64%) and N+ (33%) at the NCI, the 5-year relative survival was higher (86%, 95% confidence interval [CI] 82-91%) compared to regional centres (76%, 95% CI 73-80%, P < 0.001). Patients with a pathological T2 tumour were treated with glans-sparing treatment more often at the reference centre than at the regional centres (16% vs 5.0%, P < 0.001). After adjusting for age, histological grading, T-stage, presence of lymph node involvement and year of diagnosis, treatment at regional centres remained a predictor for worse survival (hazard ratio 1.22, 95% CI 1.05-1.39; P = 0.006). CONCLUSION: The incidence of PSCC in the Netherlands has been gradually increasing over the past three decades, with a noticeable trend towards centralisation of PSCC care and improved relative survival rate.

Relative survival in patients with cancer and kidney failure.

BACKGROUND AND HYPOTHESIS: The population with kidney failure is at increased risk of cancer and associated mortality. Relative survival can provide insight into the excess mortality, directly or indirectly, attributed to cancer in the population with kidney failure. METHODS: We estimated relative survival for people all ages receiving dialysis (n = 4089) and kidney transplant recipients (n = 3253) with de novo cancer, and for the general population with cancer in Australia and New Zealand (n = 3 043 166) over the years 1980-2019. The entire general population was the reference group for background mortality, adjusted for sex, age, calendar year and country. We used Poisson regression to quantify excess mortality ratios. RESULTS: Five-year relative survival for all-site cancer was markedly lower than the general population for people receiving dialysis (0.25, 95%CI:0.23-0.26) and kidney transplant recipients (0.55, 95%CI:0.53-0.57). In dialysis, excess mortality was more than double (2.16, 95%CI:2.08-2.25) that of the general population with cancer and for kidney transplant recipients 1.34 higher (95%CI:1.27-2.41). There was no difference in excess mortality from lung cancer between people with kidney failure and the general population with cancer. Comparatively, there was a significant survival deficit for people with kidney failure, compared to the general population with cancer, for melanoma, breast cancer and prostate cancers. CONCLUSION: Decreased cancer survival in kidney failure may reflect differences in multi-morbidity burden, reduced access to treatment, or greater harm from or reduced efficacy of treatments. Our findings support research aimed at investigating these hypotheses.

Evaluation of Flexible Parametric Relative Survival Approaches for Enforcing Long-Term Constraints When Extrapolating All-Cause Survival.

OBJECTIVES: Parametric models are used to estimate the lifetime benefit of an intervention beyond the range of trial follow-up. Recent recommendations have suggested more flexible survival approaches and the use of external data when extrapolating. Both of these can be realized by using flexible parametric relative survival modeling. The overall aim of this article is to introduce and contrast various approaches for applying constraints on the long-term disease-related (excess) mortality including cure models and evaluate the consequent implications for extrapolation. METHODS: We describe flexible parametric relative survival modeling approaches. We then introduce various options for constraining the long-term excess mortality and compare the performance of each method in simulated data. These methods include fitting a standard flexible parametric relative survival model, enforcing statistical cure, and forcing the long-term excess mortality to converge to a constant. We simulate various scenarios, including where statistical cure is reasonable and where the long-term excess mortality persists. RESULTS: The compared approaches showed similar survival fits within the follow-up period. However, when extrapolating the all-cause survival beyond trial follow-up, there is variation depending on the assumption made about the long-term excess mortality. Altering the time point from which the excess mortality is constrained enables further flexibility. CONCLUSIONS: The various constraints can lead to applying explicit assumptions when extrapolating, which could lead to more plausible survival extrapolations. The inclusion of general population mortality directly into the model-building process, which is possible for all considered approaches, should be adopted more widely in survival extrapolation in health technology assessment.

Trends in incidence and survival of childhood cancers in Khon Kaen, Thailand (2000-2019): a population-based Khon Kaen Cancer Registry study.

BACKGROUND: In Thailand, the national health care system and nationwide standard treatment protocols have evolved over time, potentially influencing the trends in the incidence and survival rates of childhood cancers. However, further investigations are required to comprehensively study these trends in Khon Kaen, Thailand. METHODS: Childhood cancer patients aged 0-14 years (n = 541) who were diagnosed with one of the five most common cancers between 2000 and 2019 from the population-based Khon Kaen Cancer Registry were enrolled. Descriptive statistics were used to analyse the demographic data, which are presented as numbers, percentages, means, and standard deviations. The trends in incidence between 2000 and 2019, including age-standardized incidence rates (ASRs) and annual percent changes (APCs), were analysed using the Joinpoint regression model. Survival analysis was performed for 5-year relative survival rates (RSRs) according to the Pohar Perme estimator and Kaplan-Meier survival curves. RESULTS: The ASRs of the overall top 5 childhood cancer groups were 67.96 and 106.12 per million person-years in 2000 and 2019, respectively. Overall, the APC significantly increased by 2.37% each year for both sexes. The overall 5-year RSRs were 60.5% for both sexes, 58.2% for males, and 63.9% for females. The highest 5-year RSR was for germ cell tumours (84.3%), whereas the lowest 5-year RSR was for neuroblastoma (29.1%). CONCLUSIONS: The incidence and survival rates of childhood cancers in Khon Kaen, Thailand, varied according to sex. The incidence trends increased over time, meanwhile, the relative survival rates rose to satisfactory levels and were comparable to those of other nations with similar financial status. The implementation of national health policies and adherence to national treatment guidelines have improved cancer diagnosis and treatment outcomes.

Long-term survival trends in solid cancers in the Nordic countries marking timing of improvements.

Survival studies are an important indicator of the success of cancer control. We analyzed the 5-year relative survival in 23 solid cancers in Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden over a 50-year period (1970-2019) at the NORDCAN database accessed from the International Agency for Research on Cancer website. We plotted survival curves in 5-year periods and showed 5-year periodic survival. The survival results were summarized in four groups: (1) cancers with historically good survival (>50% in 1970-1974) which include melanoma and breast, endometrial and thyroid cancers; (2) cancers which constantly improved survival at least 20% units over the 50 year period, including cancers of the stomach, colon, rectum, kidney, brain and ovary; (3) cancer with increase in survival >20% units with changes taking place in a narrow time window, including oral, oropharyngeal, testicular and prostate cancers; (4) the remaining cancers with <20% unit improvement in survival including lung, esophageal, liver, pancreatic, bladder, soft tissue, penile, cervical and vulvar cancers. For cancers in groups 1 and 2, the constant development implied multiple improvements in therapy, diagnosis and patient care. Cancers in group 3 included testicular cancers with known therapeutic improvements but for the others large incidence changes probably implied that cancer stage (prostate) or etiology (oropharynx) changed into a more tractable form. Group 4 cancers included those with dismal survival 50 years ago but a clear tendency upwards. In 17 cancers 5-year survival reached between 50% and 100% while in only six cancers it remained at below 50%.

Conditional relative survival in nonmetastatic esophagogastric cancer between 2006 and 2020: A population-based study.

Conditional relative survival (CRS) is useful for communicating prognosis to patients as it provides an estimate of the life expectancy after having survived a certain time after treatment. Our study estimates the 3-year relative survival conditional on having survived a certain period for patients with esophageal or gastric cancer. Patients with nonmetastatic esophageal or gastric cancer diagnosed between 2006 and 2020 treated with curative intent (resection with or without [neo]adjuvant therapy, or chemoradiotherapy) were selected from the Netherlands Cancer Registry. CRS was calculated since resection or last day of chemoradiotherapy. The probability of surviving an additional 3 years (ie, 3-year CRS), if the patients survived 1, 3 and 5 years after diagnosis was 62%, 79%, 87% and 69%, 84%, 90% for esophageal and gastric cancer, respectively. The 3-year CRS after having survived 3 years for patients with esophageal cancer who underwent a resection (n = 12 204) was 91%, 88%, 77% and 60% for pathological Stage 0, I, II and III, and for patients with esophageal cancer who received chemoradiotherapy (n = 4158) was 51% and 66% for clinical Stage II and III, respectively. The 3-year CRS after having survived 3 years for patients with gastric cancer who underwent a resection (n = 6531) was 99%, 90%, 73% and 59% for pathological Stage 0, I, II and III, respectively. Despite poor prognosis of patients with esophageal or gastric cancer, life expectancy increases substantially after patients have survived several years after treatment. Our study provides valuable information for communication of prognosis to patients during follow-up after treatment.

Cause of death and excess mortality in patients with lower-risk myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS): A report from the European MDS registry.

Information on causes of death (CoDs) and the impact of myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS) on survival in patients with lower-risk MDS (LR-MDS) is limited. A better understanding of the relationship between disease characteristics, clinical interventions and CoDs may improve outcomes of patients with LR-MDS. We prospectively collected data on patients with LR-MDS in the European MDS registry from 2008 to 2019. Clinical, laboratory and CoDs data were obtained. To examine MDS-specific survival, relative survival (RS) was estimated using national life tables. Of 2396 evaluated subjects, 900 died (median overall survival [OS]: 4.7 years; median follow-up: 3.5 years). The most common CoDs were acute myeloid leukaemia/MDS (20.1%), infection (17.8%) and cardiovascular disease (CVD; 9.8%). Patients with isolated del(5q) and with red cell transfusion needed during the disease course, had a higher risk of fatal CVD. The 5-year OS was 47.3% and the 5-year RS was 59.6%, indicating that most patients died due to their underlying MDS. Older patients (aged >80 years) and the lowest-risk patients were more likely to die from competing causes. This study shows that MDS and its related complications play crucial role in the outcome of patients with LR-MDS.

Early progression in follicular lymphoma in the absence of histological transformation or high-risk Follicular Lymphoma International Prognostic Index still has a favourable outcome.

Although follicular lymphoma (FL) patients relapsing within 24 months after first-line treatment (POD24) have a poor prognosis, some cases show notable survival after first relapse (SF1R). We aimed to characterize the POD24 FL population and to identify the main prognostic factors at progression. We selected 162 POD24 patients (80F; median age at first relapse 59 years) from a cohort of 1067 grades 1-3a FL-treated patients. The remaining 905 patients treated with first-line immunochemotherapy and diagnosed during the same period were used to compare outcomes in terms of survival. After a median follow-up of 11.0 years, 96 patients died (10y-SF1R of 40%). Age over 60 years (p < 0.001), high lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) (p < 0.001), haemoglobin (Hb) less than 120 g/L (p < 0.001), advanced stage (p < 0.001), high-risk Follicular Lymphoma International Prognostic Index (FLIPI) (p < 0.001), histological transformation (HT) (p < 0.001) and reaching less than complete response (CR) after salvage therapy (p < 0.001), predicted poor SF1R at relapse. In multivariate analysis only high-risk FLIPI and HT maintained prognostic significance for SF1R. POD24 patients not transformed and with low/intermediate FLIPI at relapse behaved better than the remaining cases. POD24 patients showed an excess mortality of 38% compared to the general population. Although outcome of POD24 FL patients is poor, a considerable group of them (low/intermediate FLIPI and not transformed at first relapse) behave better.

Direct modeling of the crude probability of cancer death and the number of life years lost due to cancer without the need of cause of death: a pseudo-observation approach in the relative survival setting.

In population-based cancer studies, net survival is a crucial measure for population comparison purposes. However, alternative measures, namely the crude probability of death (CPr) and the number of life years lost (LYL) due to death according to different causes, are useful as complementary measures for reflecting different dimensions in terms of prognosis, treatment choice, or development of a control strategy. When the cause of death (COD) information is available, both measures can be estimated in competing risks setting using either cause-specific or subdistribution hazard regression models or with the pseudo-observation approach through direct modeling. We extended the pseudo-observation approach in order to model the CPr and the LYL due to different causes when information on COD is unavailable or unreliable (i.e., in relative survival setting). In a simulation study, we assessed the performance of the proposed approach in estimating regression parameters and examined models with different link functions that can provide an easier interpretation of the parameters. We showed that the pseudo-observation approach performs well for both measures and we illustrated their use on cervical cancer data from the England population-based cancer registry. A tutorial showing how to implement the method in R software is also provided.

Use of period analysis to provide a timely assessment of 5-year relative survival for pancreatic cancer patients from Taizhou, eastern China.

Assessing long-term tumor survival rates is crucial for evaluating the effectiveness of tumor treatment and burden. However, timely assessment of long-term survival in patients with pancreatic cancer is lagging in China. In this study, we applied period analysis to estimate the long-term survival of pancreatic cancer patients using data from four population-based cancer registries in Taizhou city, eastern China. A total of 1121 patients diagnosed with pancreatic cancer between 2004 and 2018 were included. We assessed the 5-year relative survival (RS) using period analysis and further stratified by sex, age at diagnosis, and region. The 5-year RS during 2014-2018 overall reached 18.9% (14.7% for men and 23.3% for women, respectively). A decrease of the 5-year RS from 30.3% to 11.2% was observed in four diagnostic age gradients (< 55, 55-64, 65-74, and > 74 years age groups). The 5-year RS was higher in urban (24.2%) than in rural (17.4%) areas. Moreover, the 5-year RS of pancreatic cancer patients showed an overall increasing trend for the three periods (2004-2008, 2009-2013, and 2014-2018). Our study, using period analysis for the first time in China, provides the latest estimates of the survival of patients with pancreatic cancer, which provides essential evidence for the prevention and intervention of pancreatic cancer. The results also indicate the importance of further applications of the period analysis for more up-to-date and accurate survival estimates.

Time trends in survival and causes of death in multiple myeloma: a population-based study from Germany.

BACKGROUND: Steady evolution of therapies has improved prognosis of patients with multiple myeloma (MM) over the past two decades. Yet, knowledge about survival trends and causes of death in MM might play a crucial role in long-term management of this patient collective. Here, we investigate time trends in myeloma-specific survival at the population level over two decades and analyse causes of death in times of prolonged survival. METHODS: Age-standardised and age group-specific relative survival (RS) of MM patients aged < 80 years at diagnosis was estimated for consecutive time periods from 2000-2019 using data from the Cancer Registry of North Rhine-Westphalia in Germany. Conditional RS was estimated for patients who already survived one to five years post diagnosis. Causes of death in MM patients were analysed and compared to the general population using standardised mortality ratios (SMR). RESULTS: Three thousand three hundred thirty-six MM cases were included in the time trend analysis. Over two decades, age-standardised 5-year RS increased from 37 to 62%. Age-specific survival improved from 41% in period 2000-2004 to 69% in period 2015-2019 in the age group 15-69 years, and from 23 to 47% in the age group 70-79 years. Conditional 5-year RS of patients who survived five years after diagnosis slightly improved as compared to unconditional 5-year RS at diagnosis. MM patients are two times more likely to die from non-myeloma malignancies (SMR = 1.97, 95% CI 1.81-2.15) and from cardiovascular diseases (SMR = 2.01, 95% CI 1.86-2.18) than the general population. CONCLUSIONS: Prognosis of patients with MM has markedly improved since the year 2000 due to therapeutic advances. Nevertheless, late mortality remains a major concern. As survival improves, second primary malignancies and cardiovascular events deserve increased attention.

The epidemiology of multiple primary cancers in Belgium (2004-2017): Incidence, proportion, risk, stage and impact on relative survival estimates.

BACKGROUND: As both life expectancy and cancer survival improve, the incidence of multiple primary cancer has augmented and is expected to further increase. This study describes for the first time the epidemiology of multiple invasive tumours in Belgium. METHODS: This nationwide study, based on all cancers diagnosed between 2004 and 2017 in Belgium, describes the proportion of multiple primary cancer, its evolution over time, the impact of inclusion or exclusion of multiple primary cancer on relative survival estimates, the risk of developing a second primary cancer, and the difference in stage between first and second primary cancer for the same patient. RESULTS: The proportion of multiple primary cancer increases with age, varies across cancer sites (from 4% for testis cancer to 22.8% for oesophageal cancer), is higher in men than in women, and has linearly increased over time. The inclusion of multiple primary cancer resulted in smaller 5-year relative survival and this impact is more pronounced in cancer sites with high relative survival. Patients with a first primary cancer have an increased risk to develop a new primary cancer compared to the population without a previous cancer history (1.27 and 1.59 times higher in men and women, respectively) and this risk depends on cancer site. Second primary cancers are associated with more advanced stages and more unknown stages than the corresponding first cancer diagnosis. CONCLUSIONS: This study describes multiple primary cancer according to several measures (proportion, standardised incidence ratio for an second primary cancer, impact of multiple primary cancer on relative survival and differences according to stage) for the first time in Belgium. The results are based on data of a population-based cancer registry with a relatively recent onset (2004).

Epidemiology of adult meningioma: Report from the Dutch Brain Tumour Registry (2000-2019).

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Meningiomas are the most common primary tumours of the central nervous system. This study aimed to provide comprehensive nationwide estimates on the incidence, prevalence and prognostic impact of meningioma diagnosis in the Netherlands. METHODS: Adult patients diagnosed with meningioma in 2000-2019 were selected from the Dutch Brain Tumour Registry (DBTR), part of the Netherlands Cancer Registry (NCR). Time trends in age-adjusted incidence and prevalence rates were evaluated using the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC). Relative survival rates were calculated using the Pohar Perme estimator. Case completeness of the DBTR/NCR was estimated through record linkage with one of the Dutch neuro-oncology centres. RESULTS: From a total of 23,454 cases of meningioma, 11,306 (48.2%) were histologically confirmed and 12,148 (51.8%) were radiological diagnoses. Over time, the incidence of diagnosis increased from 46.9 per 1,000,000 inhabitants (European Standardized Rate [ESR]) to 107.3 (EAPC 4.7%, p < 0.01), with an increase in the incidence of radiological diagnoses from 14.0 to 70.2 per 1,000,000 ESR (EAPC 9.1%, p < 0.01). The prevalence of meningioma was estimated at 1012/1,000,000 on 1 January 2020, with almost 17,800 individuals having had a diagnosis of meningioma. Relative survival rate at 10 years for grade 1 meningiomas was 91.0% (95% confidence interval [CI] 89.4%-92.3%), 71.3% (95% CI 66.8%-75.2%) for grade 2 meningiomas and 36.4% (95% CI 27.3%-45.6%) for grade 3 meningiomas. Local case completeness was estimated at 97.6% for histologically confirmed meningiomas and 84.5% for radiological diagnoses. CONCLUSION: With a near-complete registry, meningioma prevalence was estimated at over 1000 per 1,000,000 inhabitants.

Including uncertainty of the expected mortality rates in the prediction of loss in life expectancy.

PURPOSE: This study introduces a novel method for estimating the variance of life expectancy since diagnosis (LEC) and loss in life expectancy (LLE) for cancer patients within a relative survival framework in situations where life tables based on the entire general population are not accessible. LEC and LLE are useful summary measures of survival in population-based cancer studies, but require information on the mortality in the general population. Our method addresses the challenge of incorporating the uncertainty of expected mortality rates when using a sample from the general population. METHODS: To illustrate the approach, we estimated LEC and LLE for patients diagnosed with colon and breast cancer in Sweden. General population mortality rates were based on a random sample drawn from comparators of a matched cohort. Flexible parametric survival models were used to model the mortality among cancer patients and the mortality in the random sample from the general population. Based on the models, LEC and LLE together with their variances were estimated. The results were compared with those obtained using fixed expected mortality rates. RESULTS: By accounting for the uncertainty of expected mortality rates, the proposed method ensures more accurate estimates of variances and, therefore, confidence intervals of LEC and LLE for cancer patients. This is particularly valuable for older patients and some cancer types, where underestimation of the variance can be substantial when the entire general population data are not accessible. CONCLUSION: The method can be implemented using existing software, making it accessible for use in various cancer studies. The provided example of Stata code further facilitates its adoption.

Relative Survival After Adult Cardiac Surgery: Analysis of the Italian Nationwide Registry Data.

OBJECTIVE: The authors aimed to investigate life expectancy after adult cardiac surgery. SETTING: Nationwide study including University and non-University hospitals. PARTICIPANTS: Consecutive adult patients who underwent heart valve and coronary artery surgery from a nationwide administrative registry. INTERVENTIONS: Surgical procedures on the heart valves and coronary arteries. METHODS: The authors estimated the 10-year relative survival of adult patients who underwent surgery for heart valve diseases and coronary artery disease taken from a nationwide administrative registry. MEASUREMENTS AND RESULTS: Overall, data on 415,472 patients were available for this study. Among them, 394,445 (94.9%) survived 90 days after surgery, and their 10-year survival was 58.0% (95% CI 57.8-58.3); the expected survival was 70.1%, and the relative survival was 0.83 (95% CI 0.82-0.83). Patients who underwent surgical repair of the mitral valve and aortic valve had relative survival of 0.96 and 0.92, respectively. Isolated coronary artery bypass grafting had a relative survival of 0.88. Surgical replacement of the heart valves had a relative survival below 0.80. Poor results with relative survival <0.70 were observed after complex cardiac surgery. Relative survival was <0.60 in patients who underwent double- or triple-valve surgery combined with coronary artery surgery. The authors observed markedly lower relative survival among women (0.77, 95% CI 0.77-0.78) compared with men (0.86, 95% CI 0.85-0.86) at 10 years. Such a difference was observed after almost all different procedures. CONCLUSIONS: The present findings provided a picture of the real expectation in terms of the late survival of patients after having undergone adult cardiac surgery. This information should be communicated to patients and their relatives before surgery, and it may be relevant in the decision-making process and in planning tertiary prevention.

Expected life years compared to the general population.

For cohorts with long-term follow-up, the number of years lost due to a certain disease yields a measure with a simple and appealing interpretation. Recently, an overview of the methodology used for this goal has been published, and two measures have been proposed. In this work, we consider a third option that may be useful in settings in which the other two are inappropriate. In all three measures, the survival of the given dataset is compared to the expected survival in the general population which is calculated using external mortality tables. We thoroughly analyze the differences between the three measures, their assumptions, interpretation, and the corresponding estimators. The first measure is defined in a competing risk setting and assumes an excess hazard compared to the population, while the other two measures also allow estimation for groups that live better than the general population. In this case, the observed survival of the patients is compared to that in the population. The starting point of this comparison depends on whether the entry into the study is a hazard changing event (e.g., disease diagnosis or the age at which the inclusion criteria were met). Focusing on the newly defined life years difference measure, we study the estimation of the variance and consider the possible challenges (e.g., extrapolation) that occur in practice. We illustrate its use with a dataset of French Olympic athletes. Finally, an efficient R implementation has been developed for all three measures which make this work easily available to subsequent users.

A censored quantile regression approach for relative survival analysis: Relative survival quantile regression.

We propose a censored quantile regression model for the analysis of relative survival data. We create a hybrid data set consisting of the study observations and counterpart randomly sampled pseudopopulation observations imputed from population life tables that adjust for expected mortality. We then fit a censored quantile regression model to the hybrid data incorporating demographic variables (e.g., age, biologic sex, calendar time) corresponding to the population life tables of demographically-similar individuals, a population versus study covariate, and its interactions with the variables of interest. These latter variables can be interpreted as relative survival parameters that depict the differences in failure quantiles between the study participants and their population counterparts.

[Survival analysis of malignant tumors in cancer registration areas of Hubei province in China, 2013 to 2015].

Objective: To analyze the survival of newly diagnosed malignant tumors in cancer registration areas of Hubei Province from 2013 to 2015. Methods: From January 1, 2013 to December 31, 2015, all newly diagnosed malignant tumors were collected from cancer registration areas in Hubei Province, and patients were followed up using a combination of active and passive methods. Cancer survival was analyzed using the strs package in Stata software. Observed and expected survival were calculated using the life table and Ederer Ⅱ methods, and the difference in survival rate of patients with different sex, age, urban and rural areas and different cancer species was compared. Results: From 2013 to 2015, 83 987 new malignant tumors were diagnosed in cancer registration areas in Hubei Province, including 45 742 males (54.46%) and 38245 females (45.54%). The overall 5-year relative survival rate was 41.46%, 34.43% for men and 49.63% for women. With the increase of age, the observed survival rate and relative survival rate of patients of different genders showed a decreasing trend. The 5-year relative survival rate of patients with malignant tumors was 47.58% in urban areas and 26.58% in rural areas. The observed survival rate and relative survival rate in rural areas were significantly lower than those in urban areas. The overall 5-year relative survival rates for common malignancies were 20.61% for lung cancer, 15.36% for liver cancer, 22.89% for esophageal cancer, 34.92% for gastric cancer, and 54.87% for colorectal cancer. In addition, the 5-year relative survival rates of common malignant tumors in women were 78.65% for breast cancer and 52.55% for cervical cancer. Conclusions: In Hubei Province, the survival rate of malignant tumors is different among different genders, regions, age groups and cancer species. Prevention and treatment and health education should be strengthened for malignant tumor patients in rural areas and those with high incidence and low survival rate such as liver cancer and lung cancer, and relevant strategies should be formulated according to the gender and age distribution characteristics of different cancer species.