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Stochastic modeling approaches have attracted many researchers to the field. However, fire hotspot detection suffers from not using a Markov chain quasi-Monte Carlo (MCQMC) as a forecasting methodology. This paper proposes improvements to the computational time by combining the strengths of the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and quasi-Monte Carlo (QMC) methods. The proposed method can lead to more precise and stable results, particularly in problems with high-dimensional integration or complex probability distributions. The proposed method is applied to a case study of fire hotspot detection in Sarawak, Malaysia. The outcome of this study reveals that the MCQMC method is more computationally efficient, taking only 0.0746 seconds compared to MCMC's 0.0914 seconds and QMC's 0.0994 seconds. It is shown that the best option derived by the proposed method is effective in predicting fire hotspots and providing quick solutions to protect the environment and communities from forest fires.
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Incendios , Cadenas de Markov , Método de Montecarlo , Malasia , PredicciónRESUMEN
Covalent organic frameworks (COFs) are class of porous coordination polymers made up of organic building blocks joined together by covalent bonding through thermodynamic and controlled reversible polymerization reactions. This review discussed versatile applications of COFs for remediation of wastewater containing dyes, emphasizing the advantages of both pristine and modified materials in adsorption, membrane separation, and advanced oxidations processes. The excellent performance of COFs towards adsorption and membrane filtration has been centered to their higher crystallinity and porosity, exhibiting exceptionally high surface area, pore size and pore volumes. Thus, they provide more active sites for trapping the dye molecules. On one hand, the photocatalytic performance of the COFs was attributed to their semiconducting properties, and when coupled with other functional semiconducting materials, they achieve good mechanical and thermal stabilities, positive light response, and narrow band gap, a typical characteristic of excellent photocatalysts. As such, COFs and their composites have demonstrated excellent potentialities for the elimination of the dyes.
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Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is the current worldwide pandemic as declared by the World Health Organization (WHO) in March 2020. Being part of the ongoing global pandemic, Malaysia has recorded a total of 8639 COVID-19 cases and 121 deaths as of 30th June 2020. This study aims to detect spatial clusters of COVID-19 in Malaysia using the Spatial Scan Statistic (SaTScan™) to guide control authorities on prioritizing locations for targeted interventions. The spatial analyses were conducted on a monthly basis at the state-level from March to September 2020. The results show that the most likely cluster of COVID-19 occurred in West Malaysia repeatedly from March to June, covering three counties (two federal territories and one neighbouring state) and moved to East Malaysia in July covering two other counties. The most likely cluster shows a tendency of having moved from the western part to the eastern part of the country. These results provide information that can be used for the evidence- based interventions to control the spread of COVID-19 in Malaysia. A Correction has been published: https://doi.org/10.4081/gh.2023.1233
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COVID-19 , Análisis por Conglomerados , Humanos , Malasia/epidemiología , SARS-CoV-2 , Análisis EspacialRESUMEN
The state of Selangor, in Malaysia consist of urban and peri-urban centres with good transportation system, and suitable temperature levels with high precipitations and humidity which make the state ideal for high number of dengue cases, annually. This study investigates if districts within the Selangor state do influence each other in determining pattern of dengue cases. Study compares two different models; the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Ensemble ARIMA models, using the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) measurement to gauge their performance tools. ARIMA model is developed using the epidemiological data of dengue cases, whereas ensemble ARIMA incorporates the neighbouring regions' dengue models as the exogenous variable (X), into traditional ARIMA model. Ensemble ARIMA models have better model fit compared to the basic ARIMA models by incorporating neighbuoring effects of seven districts which made of state of Selangor. The AIC and BIC values of ensemble ARIMA models to be smaller compared to traditional ARIMA counterpart models. Thus, study concludes that pattern of dengue cases for a district is subject to spatial effects of its neighbouring districts and number of dengue cases in the surrounding areas.
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Dengue/epidemiología , Modelos Estadísticos , Algoritmos , Clima , Geografía , Humanos , Malasia/epidemiologíaRESUMEN
The number of tuberculosis (TB) cases in Pakistan ranks fifth in the world. The National TB Control Program (NTP) has recently reported more than 462,920 TB patients in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, Pakistan from 2002 to 2017. This study aims to identify spatial and space-time clusters of TB cases in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province Pakistan during 2015-2019 to design effective interventions. The spatial and space-time cluster analyses were conducted at the district-level based on the reported TB cases from January 2015 to April 2019 using space-time scan statistics (SaTScan). The most likely spatial and space-time clusters were detected in the northern rural part of the province. Additionally, two districts in the west were detected as the secondary space-time clusters. The most likely space-time cluster shows a tendency of spread toward the neighboring districts in the central part, and the most likely spatial cluster shows a tendency of spread toward the neighboring districts in the south. Most of the space-time clusters were detected at the start of the study period 2015-2016. The potential TB clusters in the remote rural part might be associated to the dry-cool climate and lack of access to the healthcare centers in the remote areas.
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Tuberculosis/epidemiología , Clima , Humanos , Pakistán/epidemiología , Población Rural , Agrupamiento Espacio-TemporalRESUMEN
Identifying the abnormally high-risk regions in a spatiotemporal space that contains an unexpected disease count is helpful to conduct surveillance and implement control strategies. The EigenSpot algorithm has been recently proposed for detecting space-time disease clusters of arbitrary shapes with no restriction on the distribution and quality of the data, and has shown some promising advantages over the state-of-the-art methods. However, the main problem with the EigenSpot method is that it cannot be adapted to detect more than one spatiotemporal hotspot. This is an important limitation, since, in reality, we may have multiple hotspots, sometimes at the same level of importance. We propose an extension of the EigenSpot algorithm, called Multi-EigenSpot that is able to handle multiple hotspots by iteratively removing previously detected hotspots and re-running the algorithm until no more hotspots are found. In addition, a visualization tool (heatmap) has been linked to the proposed algorithm to visualize multiple clusters with different colors. We evaluated the proposed method using the monthly data on measles cases in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan (Jan 2016- Dec 2016), and the efficiency was compared with the state-of-the-art methods: EigenSpot and Space-time scan statistic (SaTScan). The results showed the effectiveness of the proposed method for detecting multiple clusters in a spatiotemporal space.
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Algoritmos , Sarampión/epidemiología , Agrupamiento Espacio-Temporal , Humanos , Pakistán/epidemiología , Estaciones del AñoRESUMEN
Ability to detect potential space-time clusters in spatio-temporal data on disease occurrences is necessary for conducting surveillance and implementing disease prevention policies. Most existing techniques use geometrically shaped (circular, elliptical or square) scanning windows to discover disease clusters. In certain situations, where the disease occurrences tend to cluster in very irregularly shaped areas, these algorithms are not feasible in practise for the detection of space-time clusters. To address this problem, a new algorithm is proposed, which uses a co-clustering strategy to detect prospective and retrospective space-time disease clusters with no restriction on shape and size. The proposed method detects space-time disease clusters by tracking the changes in space-time occurrence structure instead of an in-depth search over space. This method was utilised to detect potential clusters in the annual and monthly malaria data in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province, Pakistan from 2012 to 2016 visualising the results on a heat map. The results of the annual data analysis showed that the most likely hotspot emerged in three sub-regions in the years 2013-2014. The most likely hotspots in monthly data appeared in the month of July to October in each year and showed a strong periodic trend. A Correction has been published: https://doi.org/10.4081/gh.2023.1232
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Malaria/epidemiología , Vigilancia de la Población/métodos , Agrupamiento Espacio-Temporal , Algoritmos , Análisis por Conglomerados , Brotes de Enfermedades , Humanos , Pakistán/epidemiologíaRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: In the past few decades, a significant volume of work has been carried out on various aspects of the state estimation problem to estimate an optimum state vector of the power system. This problem has been focused on, in previous studies regarding the computational efficiency and numerical robustness in view to find point estimates for system state parameters. This current investigation, constructed confidence intervals for the unknown state parameters of the system. The research indicates that confidence intervals can yield addition useful information about the estimated parameters. METHODS: The feasible interval estimates for the system state parameters have been modelled in this study by considering the random uncertainty in the processing measurements. The statistical assumptions of the measurement errors have been utilized to characterize the probabilistic behavior of the estimated parameters in terms of confidence intervals. The Gauss-Newton algorithm has been adopted for maximizing the likelihood function of the processing measurements and obtaining the confidence intervals. RESULTS: The usage of the confidence intervals was demonstrated through Monte Carlo experiments on a real dataset of the 6-bus and IEEE 14-bus power systems for both small and large sample sizes. The confidence intervals were constructed for the test networks for the sample of measurements 18, 28, 44 and 68 based on the redundancy ratio R. The proposed interval estimates outperformed for the sample sizes of 28 in the 6 bus and 68 in the IEEE 14-bus systems, respectively. The poor performance for the constructed interval estimates have been reported even for the large sample sizes in the existence of contaminated measurements. CONCLUSIONS: The results of the study show that the method is effective and practically applicable in the state estimation of a power system. The constructed confidence intervals for the system state parameters adequately perform for the lager sample size. However, the existence of the gross errors in the processing measurements had severe effect on the performance of the proposed interval estimates.
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This is our initial response towards preparation of nano-inductors garnet for high operating frequencies strontium iron garnet (Sr3Fe5O12) denoted as SrIG and yttrium iron garnet (Y3Fe5O12) denoted as YIG. The garnet nano crystals were prepared by novel sol-gel technique. The phase and crystal structure of the prepared samples were identified by using X-ray diffraction analysis. SEM images were done to reveal the surface morphology of the samples. Raman spectra was taken for yttrium iron garnet (Y3Fe5O12). The magnetic properties of the samples namely initial permeability (micro), relative loss factor (RLF) and quality factor (Q-Factor) were done by using LCR meter. From the XRD profile, both of the Y3Fe5O12 and Sr3Fe5O12 samples showed single phase garnet and crystallization had completely occurred at 900 degrees C for the SrIG and 950 degrees C for the YIG samples. The YIG sample showed extremely low RLF value (0.0082) and high density 4.623 g/cm3. Interesting however is the high Q factor (20-60) shown by the Sr3Fe5O12 sample from 20-100 MHz. This high performance magnetic property is attributed to the homogenous and cubical-like microstructure. The YIG particles were used as magnetic feeder for EM transmitter. It was observed that YIG magnetic feeder with the EM transmitter gave 39% higher magnetic field than without YIG magnetic feeder.