Carbon implications of marginal oils from market-derived demand shocks.

Expanded use of novel oil extraction technologies has increased the variability of petroleum resources and diversified the carbon footprint of the global oil supply1. Past life-cycle assessment (LCA) studies overlooked upstream emission heterogeneity by assuming that a decline in oil demand will displace average crude oil2. We explore the life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions impacts of marginal crude sources, identifying the upstream carbon intensity (CI) of the producers most sensitive to an oil demand decline (for example, due to a shift to alternative vehicles). We link econometric models of production profitability of 1,933 oilfields (~90% of the 2015 world supply) with their production CI. Then, we examine their response to a decline in demand under three oil market structures. According to our estimates, small demand shocks have different upstream CI implications than large shocks. Irrespective of the market structure, small shocks (-2.5% demand) displace mostly heavy crudes with ~25-54% higher CI than that of the global average. However, this imbalance diminishes as the shocks become bigger and if producers with market power coordinate their response to a demand decline. The carbon emissions benefits of reduction in oil demand are systematically dependent on the magnitude of demand drop and the global oil market structure.

Environmental plastics in the context of UV radiation, climate change, and the Montreal Protocol.

There are close links between solar UV radiation, climate change, and plastic pollution. UV-driven weathering is a key process leading to the degradation of plastics in the environment but also the formation of potentially harmful plastic fragments such as micro- and nanoplastic particles. Estimates of the environmental persistence of plastic pollution, and the formation of fragments, will need to take in account plastic dispersal around the globe, as well as projected UV radiation levels and climate change factors.

Plastics in the environment in the context of UV radiation, climate change and the Montreal Protocol: UNEP Environmental Effects Assessment Panel, Update 2023.

This Assessment Update by the Environmental Effects Assessment Panel (EEAP) of the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) considers the interactive effects of solar UV radiation, global warming, and other weathering factors on plastics. The Assessment illustrates the significance of solar UV radiation in decreasing the durability of plastic materials, degradation of plastic debris, formation of micro- and nanoplastic particles and accompanying leaching of potential toxic compounds. Micro- and nanoplastics have been found in all ecosystems, the atmosphere, and in humans. While the potential biological risks are not yet well-established, the widespread and increasing occurrence of plastic pollution is reason for continuing research and monitoring. Plastic debris persists after its intended life in soils, water bodies and the atmosphere as well as in living organisms. To counteract accumulation of plastics in the environment, the lifetime of novel plastics or plastic alternatives should better match the functional life of products, with eventual breakdown releasing harmless substances to the environment.

Large Decreases in Tailpipe Criteria Pollutant Emissions from the U.S. Light-Duty Vehicle Fleet Expected in 2020-2040.

The U.S. EPA MOVES3 model was used to assess the impact of the large-scale introduction of electric vehicles on emissions of criteria pollutants (CO, hydrocarbons [HC], NOx, and particulate matter [PM]) and CO2 from the U.S. light-duty vehicle fleet. Large reductions in emissions of these criteria pollutants occurred in 2000-2020. These trends are expected to continue through 2040 driven by turnover of the conventional fleet with old vehicles being replaced by battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and by new internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs) with modern emission control systems. Without the introduction of BEVs, the absolute emissions of CO, NOx, HC, and PM2.5 from the U.S. light-duty vehicle fleet are expected to decrease by approximately 61, 88, 55, and 20% from 2020 to 2040. Introduction of BEVs with market share increasing linearly to 100% in 2040 provides additional benefits, which, combined with ICEV fleet turnover, would lead to decreases of absolute emissions of CO, NOx, HC, and PM2.5 of approximately 77, 94, 71, and 37% from 2020 to 2040. Reductions in CO2 emissions follow a similar pattern. Large decreases in criteria pollutant and CO2 emissions from light duty vehicles lie ahead.

Chemical data evaluation: general considerations and approaches for IUPAC projects and the chemistry community (IUPAC Technical Report).

The International Union of Pure and Applied Chemistry (IUPAC) has a long tradition of supporting the compilation of chemical data and their evaluation through direct projects, nomenclature and terminology work, and partnerships with international scientific bodies, government agencies and other organizations. The IUPAC Interdivisional Subcommittee on Critical Evaluation of Data (ISCED) has been established to provide guidance on issues related to the evaluation of chemical data. In this first report we define the general principles of the evaluation of scientific data and describe best practices and approaches to data evaluation in chemistry.

Cradle-to-Gate and Use-Phase Carbon Footprint of a Commercial Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle Lithium-Ion Battery.

Increased use of vehicle electrification to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions has led to the need for an accurate and comprehensive assessment of the carbon footprint of traction batteries. Unfortunately, there are few lifecycle assessments (LCAs) of commercial lithium-ion batteries available in the literature, and those that are available focus on the cradle-to-gate stage, often with little or no consideration of the use phase. To address this shortfall, we report both cradle-to-gate and use-phase GHG emissions for the 2020 Model Year Ford Explorer plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) NMC622 battery. Using primary industry data for battery design and manufacturing, cradle-to-gate emissions are estimated to be 1.38 t CO2e (101 kg CO2e/kWh), with 78% from materials and parts production and 22% from cell, module, and pack manufacturing. Using mass-induced energy consumptions of 0.6 and 1.6 kWh/(100 km 100 kg) for charge-depleting and -sustaining modes, respectively, the mass-induced use-phase emission of the battery is estimated to be 1.04 t CO2e. We show that battery emissions during the cradle-to-gate and use phases are comparable and that both phases need to be considered. A holistic and harmonized LCA approach that includes battery use is required to reduce carbon footprint uncertainties and guide future battery designs.

Correction: Atmospheric chemistry of (Z)- and (E)-1,2-dichloroethene: kinetics and mechanisms of the reactions with Cl atoms, OH radicals, and O3.

Correction for 'Atmospheric chemistry of (Z)- and (E)-1,2-dichloroethene: kinetics and mechanisms of the reactions with Cl atoms, OH radicals, and O3' by Mads P. Sulbaek Andersen et al., Phys. Chem. Chem. Phys., 2022, 24, 7356-7373, https://doi.org/10.1039/D1CP04877E.

Carbon Footprint of Alternative Grocery Shopping and Transportation Options from Retail Distribution Centers to Customer.

The COVID-19 pandemic has accelerated the growth of e-commerce and automated warehouses, vehicles, and robots and has created new options for grocery supply chains. We report and compare the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for a 36-item grocery basket transported along 72 unique paths from a centralized warehouse to the customer, including impacts of micro-fulfillment centers, refrigeration, vehicle automation, and last-mile transportation. Our base case is in-store shopping with last-mile transportation using an internal combustion engine (ICE) SUV (6.0 kg CO2e). The results indicate that emissions reductions could be achieved by e-commerce with micro-fulfillment centers (16-54%), customer vehicle electrification (18-42%), or grocery delivery (22-65%) compared to the base case. In-store shopping with an ICE pick-up truck has the highest emissions of all paths investigated (6.9 kg CO2e) while delivery using a sidewalk automated robot has the least (1.0 kg CO2e). Shopping frequency is an important factor for households to consider, e.g. halving shopping frequency can reduce GHG emissions by 44%. Trip chaining also offers an opportunity to reduce emissions with approximately 50% savings compared to the base case. Opportunities for grocers and households to reduce grocery supply chain carbon footprints are identified and discussed.

Atmospheric chemistry of (Z)- and (E)-1,2-dichloroethene: kinetics and mechanisms of the reactions with Cl atoms, OH radicals, and O3.

Smog chambers interfaced with in situ FT-IR detection were used to investigate the kinetics and mechanisms of the Cl atom, OH radical, and O3 initiated oxidation of (Z)- and (E)-1,2-dichloroethene (CHClCHCl) under atmospheric conditions. Relative and absolute rate methods were used to measure k(Cl + (Z)-CHClCHCl) = (8.80 ± 1.75) × 10-11, k(Cl + (E)-CHClCHCl) = (8.51 ± 1.69) × 10-11, k(OH + (Z)-CHClCHCl) = (2.02 ± 0.43) × 10-12, k(OH + (E)-CHClCHCl) = (1.94 ± 0.43) × 10-12, k(O3 + (Z)-CHClCHCl) = (4.50 ± 0.45) × 10-21, and k(O3 + (E)-CHClCHCl) = (1.02 ± 0.10) × 10-19 cm3 molecule-1 s-1 in 700 Torr of N2/air diluent at 298 ± 2 K. Pressure dependencies for the Cl atom reaction kinetics were observed for both isomers, consistent with isomerization occurring via Cl atom elimination from the chemically activated CHCl-CHCl-Cl adduct. The observed products from Cl initiated oxidation were HC(O)Cl (117-133%), CHCl2CHO (29-30%), and the corresponding CHClCHCl isomer (11-20%). OH radical initiated oxidation gives HC(O)Cl as a major product. For reaction of OH with (E)-CHClCHCl, (Z)-CHClCHCl was also observed as a product. A significant chlorine atom elimination channel was observed experimentally (HCl yield) and supported by computational results. Photochemical ozone creation potentials of 12 and 11 were estimated for (Z)- and (E)-CHClCHCl, respectively. Finally, an empirical kinetic relationship is explored for the addition of OH radicals or Cl atoms to small alkenes. The results are discussed in the context of the atmospheric chemistry of (Z)- and (E)-CHClCHCl.

Asia Pacific road transportation emissions, 1900-2050.

Asia Pacific (AP) is the largest regional vehicle market and accounted for 48% of global sales in 2019. Air quality is a pressing issue in many AP countries and together with increased vehicle sales has led to intense scrutiny of vehicle emissions. The heterogeneity of socio-economic features and transportation patterns in AP countries has resulted in different emission levels and control policies. We present an assessment of the historical and future emissions of on-road transportation and strategies to tackle emission challenges. First, we collected historical country-level population, economic development, vehicle ownership, and transportation policy data from 1900 to 2020, and forecast future development of on-road transportation activity (both passenger and freight) based on its historical relationship with socio-economic development through 2050. We considered major countries (China, India, Japan, South Korea, Australia) individually and other AP countries as a group. Second, we generated a series of emission control scenarios with various stringency levels after a comprehensive review of vehicle control measures implemented in AP countries. The control packages included transportation mode shifts, pollutant emission standards, fuel consumption standards, fuel and powertrain diversification, improvement in fuel quality, and economic and transportation policies. Localized emission factors for greenhouse gases (GHGs) and criteria air pollutants (carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen oxides (NOx), and particulate matter (PM)) were collected and estimated in line with the emission control measures. Third, we estimated historical and future emissions of AP on-road transportation from 1900 to 2050. The results showed that major air pollutants (NOx, CO, and PM2.5) from on-road vehicles peaked in 2000-2010 and are now declining despite increasing vehicle population. Control of GHGs is more challenging than for criteria air pollutants. In our reference scenario where existing policies and emission standards are implemented and new technologies are adopted according to national plans, road transportation GHG emissions in AP peak in approximately 2040.

Characterizing the Changes in Material Use due to Vehicle Electrification.

Modern automobiles are composed of more than 2000 different compounds comprising 76 different elements. Identifying supply risks across this palette of materials is important to ensure a smooth transition to more sustainable transportation technologies. This paper provides insight into how electrification is changing vehicle composition and how that change drives supply risk vulnerability by providing the first comprehensive, high-resolution (elemental and compound level) snapshot of material use in both conventional and hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) using a consistent methodology. To make these contributions, we analyze part-level data of material use for seven current year models, ranging from internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEV) to plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEVs). With this data set, we apply a novel machine learning algorithm to estimate missing or unreported composition data. We propose and apply a metric of vulnerability, referred to as exposure, which captures economic importance and susceptibility to price changes. We find that exposure increases from $874 per vehicle for ICEV passenger vehicles to $2344 per vehicle for SUV PHEVs. The shift to a PHEV fleet would double automaker exposure adding approximately $1 billion per year of supply risk to a hypothetical fleet of a million vehicles. The increase in exposure is largely not only due to the increased use of battery elements like cobalt, graphite, and nickel but also some more commonly used materials, most notably copper.

Life Cycle Greenhouse Gas Emissions for Last-Mile Parcel Delivery by Automated Vehicles and Robots.

Increased E-commerce and demand for contactless delivery during the COVID-19 pandemic have fueled interest in robotic package delivery. We evaluate life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for automated suburban ground delivery systems consisting of a vehicle (last-mile) and a robot (final-50-feet). Small and large cargo vans (125 and 350 cubic feet; V125 and V350) with an internal combustion engine (ICEV) and battery electric (BEV) powertrains were assessed for three delivery scenarios: (i) conventional, human-driven vehicle with human delivery; (ii) partially automated, human-driven vehicle with robot delivery; and (iii) fully automated, connected automated vehicle (CAV) with robot delivery. The robot's contribution to life cycle GHG emissions is small (2-6%). Compared to the conventional scenario, full automation results in similar GHG emissions for the V350-ICEV but 10% higher for the V125-BEV. Conventional delivery with a V125-BEV provides the lowest GHG emissions, 167 g CO2e/package, while partially automated delivery with a V350-ICEV generates the most at 486 g CO2e/package. Fuel economy and delivery density are key parameters, and electrification of the vehicle and carbon intensity of the electricity have a large impact. CAV power requirements and efficiency benefits largely offset each other, and automation has a moderate impact on life cycle GHG emissions.

China Electricity Generation Greenhouse Gas Emission Intensity in 2030: Implications for Electric Vehicles.

Electrification of transportation offers clear national energy security benefits but unclear climate benefits. With the current heterogeneity of grid electricity mix in China, greenhouse gas (GHG) benefits of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) vary dramatically with location. Currently, compared to baseline conventional gasoline vehicles, BEVs in north and northeastern Chinese provinces have very modest (∼10-20%) well-to-wheel (WTW) GHG benefits, whereas BEVs in southern provinces have substantial benefits (∼50%). With the expected transition to a more renewable electricity mix documented here, regional effects will largely disappear and the benefits of BEVs will be substantial (∼60-70% lower than current internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs) and ∼10-40% lower than 2030 advanced hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs)) across the whole of China by 2030. GHG emissions from BEVs in Chinese cities (Beijing, Shanghai, Chongqing, and Pearl River Delta) and United States cities and regions (New York; Washington, DC; Chicago; New England; Texas; and California) in 2015 and 2030 are evaluated and compared. BEVs in Chinese cities will still have substantially higher WTW GHG emissions than those in New York, New England, and California in 2030.

Regional Heterogeneity in the Emissions Benefits of Electrified and Lightweighted Light-Duty Vehicles.

Electrification and lightweighting technologies are important components of greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction strategies for light-duty vehicles. Assessments of GHG emissions from light-duty vehicles should take a cradle-to-grave life cycle perspective and capture important regional effects. We report the first regionally explicit (county-level) life cycle assessment of the use of lightweighting and electrification for light-duty vehicles in the U.S. Regional differences in climate, electric grid burdens, and driving patterns compound to produce significant regional heterogeneity in the GHG benefits of electrification. We show that lightweighting further accentuates these regional differences. In fact, for the midsized cars considered in our analysis, model results suggest that aluminum lightweight vehicles with a combustion engine would have similar emissions to hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) in about 25% of the counties in the US and lower than battery electric vehicles (BEVs) in 20% of counties. The results highlight the need for a portfolio of fuel efficient offerings to recognize the heterogeneity of regional climate, electric grid burdens, and driving patterns.

A Dynamic Fleet Model of U.S Light-Duty Vehicle Lightweighting and Associated Greenhouse Gas Emissions from 2016 to 2050.

Substituting conventional materials with lightweight materials is an effective way to reduce the life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from light-duty vehicles. However, estimated GHG emission reductions of lightweighting depend on multiple factors including the vehicle powertrain technology and efficiency, lightweight material employed, and end-of-life material recovery. We developed a fleet-based life cycle model to estimate the GHG emission changes due to lightweighting the U.S. light-duty fleet from 2016 to 2050, using either high strength steel or aluminum as the lightweight material. Our model estimates that implementation of an aggressive lightweighting scenario using aluminum reduces 2016 through 2050 cumulative life cycle GHG emissions from the fleet by 2.9 Gt CO2 eq (5.6%), and annual emissions in 2050 by 11%. Lightweighting has the greatest GHG emission reduction potential when implemented in the near-term, with two times more reduction per kilometer traveled if implemented in 2016 rather than in 2030. Delaying implementation by 15 years sacrifices 72% (2.1 Gt CO2 eq) of the cumulative GHG emission mitigation potential through 2050. Lightweighting is an effective solution that could provide important near-term GHG emission reductions especially during the next 10-20 years when the fleet is dominated by conventional powertrain vehicles.

Reaction of Perfluorooctanoic Acid with Criegee Intermediates and Implications for the Atmospheric Fate of Perfluorocarboxylic Acids.

The reaction of perfluorooctanoic acid with the smallest carbonyl oxide Criegee intermediate, CH2OO, has been measured and is very rapid, with a rate coefficient of (4.9 ± 0.8) × 10-10 cm3 s-1, similar to that for reactions of Criegee intermediates with other organic acids. Evidence is shown for the formation of hydroperoxymethyl perfluorooctanoate as a product. With such a large rate coefficient, reaction with Criegee intermediates can be a substantial contributor to atmospheric removal of perfluorocarboxylic acids. However, the atmospheric fates of the ester product largely regenerate the initial acid reactant. Wet deposition regenerates the perfluorocarboxylic acid via condensed-phase hydrolysis. Gas-phase reaction with OH is expected principally to result in formation of the acid anhydride, which also hydrolyzes to regenerate the acid, although a minor channel could lead to destruction of the perfluorinated backbone.

Economic and Climate Benefits of Electric Vehicles in China, the United States, and Germany.

Mass adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) is widely viewed as essential to address climate change and requires a compelling case for ownership worldwide. While the manufacturing costs and technical capabilities of EVs are similar across regions, customer needs and economic contexts vary widely. Assessments of the all-electric-range required to cover day-to-day driving demand, and the climate and economic benefits of EVs, need to account for differences in regional characteristics and individual travel patterns. To meet this need travel profiles for 1681 light-duty passenger vehicles in China, the U.S., and Germany were used to make the first consistent multiregional comparison of customer and greenhouse gas (GHG) emission benefits of EVs. We show that despite differences in fuel prices, driving patterns, and subsidies, the economic benefits/challenges of EVs are generally similar across regions. Individuals who are economically most likely to adopt EVs have GHG benefits that are substantially greater than for average drivers. Such "priority" EV customers have large (32%-63%) reductions in cradle-to-grave GHG emissions. It is shown that low battery costs (below approximately $100/kWh) and a portfolio of EV offerings are required for mass adoption of electric vehicles.

Life Cycle Assessment of Connected and Automated Vehicles: Sensing and Computing Subsystem and Vehicle Level Effects.

Although recent studies of connected and automated vehicles (CAVs) have begun to explore the potential energy and greenhouse gas (GHG) emission impacts from an operational perspective, little is known about how the full life cycle of the vehicle will be impacted. We report the results of a life cycle assessment (LCA) of Level 4 CAV sensing and computing subsystems integrated into internal combustion engine vehicle (ICEV) and battery electric vehicle (BEV) platforms. The results indicate that CAV subsystems could increase vehicle primary energy use and GHG emissions by 3-20% due to increases in power consumption, weight, drag, and data transmission. However, when potential operational effects of CAVs are included (e.g., eco-driving, platooning, and intersection connectivity), the net result is up to a 9% reduction in energy and GHG emissions in the base case. Overall, this study highlights opportunities where CAVs can improve net energy and environmental performance.

Current and Future United States Light-Duty Vehicle Pathways: Cradle-to-Grave Lifecycle Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Economic Assessment.

This article presents a cradle-to-grave (C2G) assessment of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and costs for current (2015) and future (2025-2030) light-duty vehicles. The analysis addressed both fuel cycle and vehicle manufacturing cycle for the following vehicle types: gasoline and diesel internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs), flex fuel vehicles, compressed natural gas (CNG) vehicles, hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs), hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs), battery electric vehicles (BEVs), and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs). Gasoline ICEVs using current technology have C2G emissions of ∼450 gCO2e/mi (grams of carbon dioxide equivalents per mile), while C2G emissions from HEVs, PHEVs, H2 FCEVs, and BEVs range from 300-350 gCO2e/mi. Future vehicle efficiency gains are expected to reduce emissions to ∼350 gCO2/mi for ICEVs and ∼250 gCO2e/mi for HEVs, PHEVs, FCEVs, and BEVs. Utilizing low-carbon fuel pathways yields GHG reductions more than double those achieved by vehicle efficiency gains alone. Levelized costs of driving (LCDs) are in the range $0.25-$1.00/mi depending on time frame and vehicle-fuel technology. In all cases, vehicle cost represents the major (60-90%) contribution to LCDs. Currently, HEV and PHEV petroleum-fueled vehicles provide the most attractive cost in terms of avoided carbon emissions, although they offer lower potential GHG reductions. The ranges of LCD and cost of avoided carbon are narrower for the future technology pathways, reflecting the expected economic competitiveness of these alternative vehicles and fuels.

Atmospheric chemistry of (Z)-CF3CH[double bond, length as m-dash]CHCl: products and mechanisms of the Cl atom, OH radical and O3 reactions, and role of (E)-(Z) isomerization.

The chemical mechanisms of the OH radical, Cl-atom and O3 initiated oxidation of (Z)-CF3CH[double bond, length as m-dash]CHCl were studied at 296 ± 1 K in 10-700 Torr air of N2/O2 diluent. Cl atoms add to the [double bond splayed left]C[double bond, length as m-dash]C[double bond splayed right] double bond: 12 ± 5% to the terminal carbon and 85 ± 5% to the central carbon. In 700 Torr of air the products are CF3CHClCHO, HCOCl, CF3COCl, CF3CHO, (E)-CF3CH[double bond, length as m-dash]CHCl, CF3C(O)CHCl2, and CF3CHClCOCl. The yield of (E) isomer was dependent on total pressure, but independent of O2 partial pressure; consistent with isomerization occurring via Cl atom elimination from the chemically activated rather than the thermalized CF3CHCHCl-Cl adduct. The rate constant for (Z)-CF3CH[double bond, length as m-dash]CHCl + Cl was measured at low pressure (10-15 Torr) and found to be indistinguishable from that determined at 700 Torr total pressure, whereas the low pressure rate constant for (E)-CF3CH[double bond, length as m-dash]CHCl was 36% smaller. G4MP2 ab initio calculations showed that the (E) isomer is 1.2 kcal mol-1 more stable than the (Z) isomer. Cl atom elimination from the adduct will preferentially form the (E) isomer and hence the rate of CF3CH[double bond, length as m-dash]CHCl loss will be more sensitive to pressure for the (Z) than the (E) isomer. Reaction of (Z)-CF3CH[double bond, length as m-dash]CHCl with OH radicals gives CF3CHO, HCOCl, (E)-CF3CH[double bond, length as m-dash]CHCl, and HCl. A significant chlorine atom elimination channel was observed experimentally, and supported by computational results. The oxidation products of the reaction of O3 with (Z)- and (E)-CF3CH[double bond, length as m-dash]CHCl were determined with no evidence of isomerization. The results are discussed with respect to the atmospheric chemistry and environmental impact of (Z)- and (E)-CF3CH[double bond, length as m-dash]CHCl.