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1.
Arq. bras. cardiol ; 118(1): 24-32, jan. 2022. tab, graf
Article in English, Portuguese | LILACS | ID: biblio-1360124

ABSTRACT

Resumo Fundamento O paradoxo do fumante tem sido motivo de debate para pacientes com infarto agudo do miocárdio (IM) há mais de duas décadas. Embora haja muitas evidências demonstrando que não existe tal paradoxo, publicações defendendo desfechos melhores em fumantes pós-IM ainda são lançadas. Objetivo Explorar o efeito do fumo na mortalidade de longo prazo após infarto do miocárdio por elevação de ST (STEMI). Métodos Este estudo incluiu pacientes com STEMI que foram diagnosticados entre 2004 e 2006 em três centros terciários. Os pacientes foram categorizados de acordo com a exposição ao tabaco (Grupo 1: não-fumantes; Grupo 2: <20 pacotes*anos; Grupo 3: 2-040 pacotes*anos; Grupo 4: >40 pacotes*anos). Um modelo de regressão de Cox foi utilizado para estimar os riscos relativos para mortalidade de longo prazo. O valor de p <0,05 foi considerado como estatisticamente significativo. Resultados Trezentos e treze pacientes (201 fumantes e 112 não-fumantes) foram acompanhados por um período médio de 174 meses. Os fumantes eram mais novos (54±9 vs. 62±11, p: <0,001), e a presença de fatores de risco cardiometabólicos foi mais prevalente entre os não-fumantes. Uma análise univariada do impacto do hábito de fumar na mortalidade revelou uma curva de sobrevivência melhor no Grupo 2 do que no Grupo 1. Porém, após ajustes para fatores de confusão, observou-se que os fumantes tinham um risco de morte significativamente maior. O risco relativo tornou-se maior de acordo com a maior exposição (Grupo 2 vs. Grupo 1: RR: 1,141; IC95%: 0,599 a 2.171; Grupo 3 vs. Grupo 1: RR: 2,130; IC95%: 1,236 a 3,670; Grupo 4 vs. Grupo 1: RR: 2,602; IC95%: 1,461 a 4,634). Conclusão O hábito de fumar gradualmente aumenta o risco de mortalidade por todas as causas após STEMI.


Abstract Background The smoking paradox has been a matter of debate for acute myocardial infarction patients for more than two decades. Although there is huge evidence claiming that is no real paradox, publications supporting better outcomes in post-MI smokers are still being released. Objective To explore the effect of smoking on very long-term mortality after ST Elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI). Methods This study included STEMI patients who were diagnosed between the years of 2004-2006 at three tertiary centers. Patients were categorized according to tobacco exposure (Group 1: non-smokers; Group 2: <20 package*years users, Group 3: 20-40 package*years users, Group 4: >40 package*years users). A Cox regression model was used to estimate the relative risks for very long-term mortality. P value <0.05 was considered as statistically significant. Results There were 313 patients (201 smokers, 112 non-smokers) who were followed-up for a median period of 174 months. Smokers were younger (54±9 vs. 62±11, p: <0.001), and the presence of cardiometabolic risk factors were more prevalent in non-smokers. A univariate analysis of the impact of the smoking habit on mortality revealed a better survival curve in Group 2 than in Group 1. However, after adjustment for confounders, it was observed that smokers had a significantly increased risk of death. The relative risk became higher with increased exposure (Group 2 vs. Group 1; HR: 1.141; 95% CI: 0.599 to 2.171, Group 3 vs Group 1; HR: 2.130; 95% CI: 1.236 to 3.670, Group 4 vs Group 1; HR: 2.602; 95% CI: 1.461 to 4.634). Conclusion Smoking gradually increases the risk of all-cause mortality after STEMI.


Subject(s)
Humans , Percutaneous Coronary Intervention , ST Elevation Myocardial Infarction , Myocardial Infarction/diagnosis , Smoking/adverse effects , Proportional Hazards Models , Risk Factors , Treatment Outcome
2.
Rev. Nac. (Itauguá) ; 13(2): 5-17, DICIEMBRE, 2021.
Article in Spanish | LILACS-Express | LILACS, BDNPAR | ID: biblio-1348665

ABSTRACT

RESUMEN Introducción: en cirugía cardiovascular, el EuroSCORE I, EuroSCORE II y STS score son herramientas que brindan pronóstico e información para la toma de decisiones. Es imperativo evaluar el valor predictivo real de los mismos en nuestro medio. Objetivo: evaluar el valor predictivo de los citados scores en pacientes sometidos a cirugía cardíaca en el área de cardiología del Hospital Nacional. Metodología: estudio de cohortes, retrospectivo, con muestreo no probabilístico de casos consecutivos. La población estuvo constituida por pacientes sometidos a cirugía cardiaca en el periodo comprendido entre enero 2020 a julio 2021. Fueron evaluadas 60 historias clínicas, excluidas 6, quedando finalmente 54 expedientes. Resultado: predominó el sexo masculino 57,14 %, la edad media fue de 60 ± 12 años (rango 26 - 82 años). El EuroSCORE II presentó un riesgo relativo de 10 (IC 95 % 1,3 ­ 90), p=0,004, sensibilidad 80 %, especificidad 78,43 %, VPP 26,67 % (IC 95 % 0,95 a 52,38) y VPN 97,56 % (IC 95 % 91,62 a 100 %). El EuroSCORE I presentó riesgo relativo de 1,6 (IC 95 % 0,2 ­ 10,9) p=0,50, sensibilidad 60 %, especificidad 52,94 %, VPP 11,11 % (IC 95 % 0,00 a 24,82) y VPN 93,10 % (IC 95 % 82,16 a 100 %). El STS score arrojó un riesgo relativo de 3,5 (IC 95 % 0,07 ­ 35), p=0,10, sensibilidad del 20 %, especificidad 93,33 %, valor predictivo positivo del 25 % (IC 95 % 0,00 a 79,93) y valor predictivo negativo 91,30 % (IC 95 % 82,07 a 100 %). La mortalidad global fue 8,93 % y morbilidad 93 %. Conclusión: se demostró un alto valor predictivo negativo en los scores, lo que determinó que pacientes con riesgo bajo e intermedio tuvieran una mortalidad baja.


ABSTRACT Introduction: in cardiovascular surgery, the EuroSCORE I, EuroSCORE II and STS score are tools that provide prognosis and information for decision making. It is imperative to evaluate their real predictive value in our environment. Objective: to evaluate the predictive value of the aforementioned scores in patients undergoing cardiac surgery in the Hospital Nacional cardiology area. Methodology: retrospective cohort study, with non-probabilistic sampling of consecutive cases. The population consisted of patients undergoing cardiac surgery in the period from January 2020 to July 2021. 60 medical records were evaluated, 6 excluded, finally leaving 54 records. Result: male sex predominated 57,14 %, the mean age was 60 ± 12 years (range 26 - 82 years old). The EuroSCORE II presented a relative risk of 10 (95 % CI 1.3 - 90), p = 0.004, sensitivity 80 %, specificity 78,43 %, PPV 26,67 % (95 % CI 0,95 to 52,38) and NPV 97,56 % (95 % CI 91,62 to 100 %). The EuroSCORE I presented a relative risk of 1.6 (95 % CI 0.2 - 10.9) p = 0.50, sensitivity 60 %, specificity 52,94 %, PPV 11,11 % (95 % CI 0.00 a 24,82) and NPV 93,10 % (95 % CI 82.16 to 100 %). The STS score yielded a relative risk of 3,5 (95 % CI 0.07 - 35), p = 0.10, sensitivity of 20 %, specificity 93,33 %, positive predictive value of 25 % (CI 95 % 0 .00 to 79.93) and negative predictive value 91,30 % (95 % CI 82.07 to 100 %). Overall mortality was 8,93 % and morbidity 93 %. Conclusion: a high negative predictive value was demonstrated in the scores, which determined that patients with low and intermediate risk had a low mortality.


Subject(s)
Humans , Male , Female , Adolescent , Adult , Middle Aged , Aged , Young Adult , Prognosis , Proportional Hazards Models , Predictive Value of Tests , Cohort Studies , Heart Disease Risk Factors , Cardiac Surgical Procedures/adverse effects , Cardiac Surgical Procedures/mortality
3.
Arq. bras. cardiol ; 117(5): 978-985, nov. 2021. graf
Article in English, Portuguese | LILACS | ID: biblio-1350017

ABSTRACT

Resumo Fundamento O prognóstico de longo prazo pós síndrome coronária aguda (SCA) no cuidado secundário não é bem conhecido. A gravidade da doença arterial coronariana (DAC) como preditor de mortalidade no longo prazo foi avaliada em um hospital público no Brasil. Objetivo O objetivo deste estudo foi comparar o prognóstico de curto e longo prazo após um evento de SCA, de acordo com a gravidade da doença obstrutiva, em pacientes atendidos em um hospital público secundário para um coorte prospectivo sobre DAC no Brasil (o Estudo de Registro de Insuficiência Coronariana, estudo ERICO) Métodos Foram realizadas análises de sobrevida por curvas de Kaplan-Meier e modelo de risco proporcional de Cox [razão de risco (RR) com o respectivo intervalo de confiança (IC) de 95% para avaliar mortalidade cumulativa global, por DCV e DAC, de acordo com a obstrução arterial coronária: sem obstrução (grupo de referência), doença de um vaso, doença de dois vasos, doença de múltiplos vasos] entre 800 adultos do estudo ERICO durante 4 anos de monitoramento. As RR são apresentadas como dados brutos e posteriormente padronizadas quanto a possíveis fatores de confusão, no período de 180 dias até 4 anos de monitoramento após a SCA. O p-valor <0.05 foi considerado estatisticamente significativo. Resultados Taxas de sobrevida mais baixas foram detectadas entre indivíduos com a doença de múltiplos vasos (global, DCV e DAC, p de teste de Log-rank <0,0001). Depois da padronização multivariada, a doença de múltiplos vasos [RR; 2,33 (IC 95%; 1,10-4,95)] e doença de um vaso obstruído [RR; 2,44 (IC 95%; 1,11-5,34)] tiveram o risco mais alto de mortalidade global comparadas aos índices dos sujeitos sem obstrução no monitoramento de 4 anos. Conclusões Não só os pacientes com doença de múltiplos vasos como também os com doença de um vaso tiveram alto risco de mortalidade no longo prazo pós-SCA. Esses achados destacam a importância de se ter uma abordagem melhor no tratamento e no controle de fatores de risco cardiovascular, mesmo em indivíduos com risco aparentemente baixo, atendidos em cuidado secundário.


Abstract Background Long-term prognosis post-acute coronary syndrome (ACS) in secondary care is not well-known. The severity of coronary artery disease (CAD) as a predictor of long-term mortality was evaluated in a community hospital in Brazil. Objective We aimed to compare short and long-term prognosis after an ACS event according to severity of obstructive disease in patients attended in a secondary community hospital from prospective CAD cohort in Brazil (the Strategy of Registry of Acute Coronary Syndrome, ERICO study). Methods Survival analyses were performed by Kaplan-Meier curves and Cox proportional hazard models (hazard ratios (HR) with respective 95% confidence interval (CI) to evaluate cumulative all-cause, CVD and CAD mortality according the coronary artery obstruction: no-obstruction (reference group), 1-vessel-disease, 2-vessel-disease, multivessel-disease) among 800 adults from an ERICO study during a 4-year-follow-up. HR are presented as crude and further adjusted for potential confounders from 180 days to 4-year follow-up after ACS. A p-value <0.05 was considered statistically significant. Results Poorer survival rates were detected among individuals with multivessel-disease (all-cause, CVD and CAD, p-log rank< 0.0001). After multivariate adjustments, multivessel-disease -(HR; 2.33 (CI 95%; 1.10-4.95)) and 1-vessel-disease obstructed (HR; 2.44 (CI 95%; 1.11-5.34)) had the highest risk for all-cause mortality compared to those with no obstruction at 4-year follow-up. Conclusions Not only multivessel-disease, but also 1-vessel-disease patients showed a high long-term mortality risk post-ACS. These findings highlight the importance of having a better approach in the treatment and control of cardiovascular risk even in apparently low-risk individuals attended to in secondary care.


Subject(s)
Humans , Coronary Artery Disease , Prognosis , Brazil/epidemiology , Proportional Hazards Models , Prospective Studies , Risk Factors , Hospitals, Community
4.
Rev. colomb. cardiol ; 28(3): 269-273, mayo-jun. 2021. tab, graf
Article in Spanish | LILACS, COLNAL | ID: biblio-1341295

ABSTRACT

Resumen Objetivo: Los modelos de predicción de mortalidad intrahospitalaria en pacientes con falla cardiaca aguda pueden ser útiles para la toma de decisiones, situación que hace necesario evaluar la capacidad predictiva y de discriminación en la población colombiana. Método: Estudio de cohorte retrospectiva de pacientes con falla cardiaca aguda. Se evaluó el desempeño de los modelos de predicción de mortalidad intrahospitalaria ADHERE, OPTIMIZE-HF, GWTG-HF y PROTECT, durante los años 2013 a 2015. Se realizó el cálculo de la puntuación para cada uno de los modelos y se determinó la capacidad de predicción y discriminación. Resultados: Se incluyeron 776 pacientes con una edad promedio de 71.5 años (desviación estándar: 14.3), el 56% hombres, con fracción de eyección del ventrículo izquierdo del 39%. La mortalidad global fue del 6.1%. El área bajo la curva para ADHERE fue de 0.56 (intervalo de confianza del 95% [IC95%]: 0.49-0.64), para EHMRG de 0.63 (IC95%: 0.55-0.71], para GWTG-HF de 0.63 (IC95%: 0.55-0.70), para OPTIMIZE de 0.65 (IC95%: 0.56-0.74) y para PROTECT de 0.69 (IC95%: 0.60-0.77). Conclusiones: Los modelos de predicción de muerte intrahospitalaria en pacientes con falla cardiaca aguda muestran pobre desempeño y baja capacidad de predicción y discriminación en población colombiana, lo cual sugiere el desarrollo de escalas de predicción de mortalidad en pacientes con falla cardiaca aguda específicas para dicha población.


Abstract Objective: In-hospital mortality prediction models on acute heart failure can be beneficial for decision-making, a situation necessary to evaluate, our goal was to compare predictive and discriminatory capacity of Colombian population. Method: A retrospective cohort study in patients with acute heart failure was conducted. The following performance evaluation of in-hospital mortality prediction models were conducted from 2013 to 2015: ADHERE, EHMRG, OPTIMIZE-HF, GWTG-HF and PROTECT. Data was calculated for each model, prediction and discriminatory capacity was evaluated. Results: A sample of 776 patients, 56% male, with an average age of 71.5 (standard deviation: 14.3) and with left ventricle ejection fraction rate of 39% was studied. Global mortality was of 6.1%. The area under curve for ADHERE was of 0.56 (95% confidence interval [95% CI]: 0.49-0.64), for EHMRG 0.63 (95% CI: 0.55-0.71), for GWTG-HF 0.63 (95% CI: 0.55-0.70), for OPTIMIZE 0.65 (95% CI: 0.56-0.74) and for PROTECT 0.69 (95% CI: 0.60-0.77). Conclusions: The models for predicting in-hospital death in patients with acute heart failure show poor performance, predictability and discrimination in the Colombian population, suggesting the development of mortality prediction scales in patients with acute heart failure specific to our population.


Subject(s)
Humans , Male , Female , Aged , Heart Failure , Proportional Hazards Models , Mortality
6.
Clinics ; 76: e2258, 2021. tab, graf
Article in English | LILACS | ID: biblio-1153995

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVES: Geriatric nutritional risk index (GNRI) might predict the all-cause mortality in patients with heart failure (HF). We performed a meta-analysis to evaluate the correlation between GNRI and all-cause mortality in patients with HF. METHODS: We searched the PubMed, Medline, Cochrane Library, and Embase databases for clinical trials investigating the association between GNRI and all-cause mortality in patients with HF, having the primary endpoint as all-cause mortality. RESULTS: In total, nine studies involving 7,659 subjects were included in the systematic review and meta-analysis. The results indicated that major risk and moderate risk GNRI (GNRI<92) was associated with an increased risk of all-cause mortality in elderly patients with HF (hazard ratios [HR] 1.59, 95% confidence intervals [CI] 1.37-1.85). Low risk GNRI (GNRI<98) group predicted all-cause mortality in elderly HF patients (HR 1.56, 95%CI 1.12-2.18) when compared with the high GNRI value group. A subgroup analysis indicated that the relationship between GNRI and HF might differ based on the subtype of heart failure. CONCLUSIONS: GNRI is a simple and well-established nutritional assessment tool to predict all-cause mortality in patients with HF.


Subject(s)
Humans , Aged , Malnutrition , Heart Failure , Geriatric Assessment , Nutrition Assessment , Proportional Hazards Models , Nutritional Status , Risk Factors
7.
Chinese Medical Journal ; (24): 2073-2080, 2021.
Article in English | WPRIM | ID: wpr-887629

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND@#Whether there is an association between serum uric acid (SUA) level and risk of mortality in the general population remains unclear. Based on the China National Survey of Chronic Kidney Disease linked to mortality data, a population-based cohort study was performed to investigate the association between SUA level and all-cause mortality, cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality, and cancer mortality in China.@*METHODS@#The survival status of participants in the cross-sectional survey was identified from January 1, 2006 to December 31, 2017. Only 33,268 individuals with complete SUA data among the 47,204 participants were included in the analysis. We determined the rates of all-cause mortality, CVD mortality, and cancer mortality. We used Cox proportional hazards regression models to evaluate the effect of the SUA level on mortality.@*RESULTS@#During a total of 297,538.4 person-years of follow-up, 1282 deaths occurred. In the Cox proportional hazards regression model, the rate of all-cause mortality, CVD mortality, and cancer mortality had a U-shaped association with SUA levels only in men, whereas no significant associations were detected in women. For all-cause mortality in men, the multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) in the first, second, and fourth quartiles compared with the third quartile were 1.31 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.04-1.67), 1.17 (95% CI 0.92-1.47), and 1.55 (95% CI 1.24-1.93), respectively. For CVD mortality, the corresponding HRs were 1.47 (95% CI 1.00-2.18), 1.17 (95% CI 0.79-1.75), and 1.67 (95% CI 1.16-2.43), respectively. For the cancer mortality rate, only a marginally significant association was detected in the fourth quartile compared with the third quartile with an HR of 1.43 (95% CI 0.99-2.08).@*CONCLUSIONS@#The association between SUA and mortality differed by sex. We demonstrated a U-shaped association with SUA levels for all-cause and CVD mortalities among men in China.


Subject(s)
Cause of Death , China/epidemiology , Cohort Studies , Cross-Sectional Studies , Female , Humans , Male , Proportional Hazards Models , Risk Factors , Uric Acid
8.
Chinese Medical Journal ; (24): 1701-1708, 2021.
Article in English | WPRIM | ID: wpr-887586

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND@#The basis of individualized treatment should be individualized mortality risk predictive information. The present study aimed to develop an online individual mortality risk predictive tool for acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) patients based on a random survival forest (RSF) algorithm.@*METHODS@#The current study retrospectively enrolled ACLF patients from the Department of Infectious Diseases of The First People's Hospital of Foshan, Shunde Hospital of Southern Medical University, and Jiangmen Central Hospital. Two hundred seventy-six consecutive ACLF patients were included in the present study as a model cohort (n = 276). Then the current study constructed a validation cohort by drawing patients from the model dataset based on the resampling method (n = 276). The RSF algorithm was used to develop an individual prognostic model for ACLF patients. The Brier score was used to evaluate the diagnostic accuracy of prognostic models. The weighted mean rank estimation method was used to compare the differences between the areas under the time-dependent ROC curves (AUROCs) of prognostic models.@*RESULTS@#Multivariate Cox regression identified hepatic encephalopathy (HE), age, serum sodium level, acute kidney injury (AKI), red cell distribution width (RDW), and international normalization index (INR) as independent risk factors for ACLF patients. A simplified RSF model was developed based on these previous risk factors. The AUROCs for predicting 3-, 6-, and 12-month mortality were 0.916, 0.916, and 0.905 for the RSF model and 0.872, 0.866, and 0.848 for the Cox model in the model cohort, respectively. The Brier scores were 0.119, 0.119, and 0.128 for the RSF model and 0.138, 0.146, and 0.156 for the Cox model, respectively. The nonparametric comparison suggested that the RSF model was superior to the Cox model for predicting the prognosis of ACLF patients.@*CONCLUSIONS@#The current study developed a novel online individual mortality risk predictive tool that could predict individual mortality risk predictive curves for individual patients. Additionally, the current online individual mortality risk predictive tool could further provide predicted mortality percentages and 95% confidence intervals at user-defined time points.


Subject(s)
Acute-On-Chronic Liver Failure , Humans , Prognosis , Proportional Hazards Models , ROC Curve , Retrospective Studies
9.
Braz. J. Vet. Res. Anim. Sci. (Online) ; 58: e183270, 2021. mapas, graf, ilus, tab
Article in English | LILACS, VETINDEX | ID: biblio-1344760

ABSTRACT

Livestock rabies is endemic in Peru. Hence, its persistence and annual dissemination represent an important economic impact, especially for impoverished farming communities. The disease is mostly transmitted by the hematophagous bat Desmodus rotundus. The present study aimed to adapt an existing predictive model of the occurrence of livestock rabies to Peru, in which the risk of rabies transmission from bats to livestock was estimated using decision-tree models of receptivity and vulnerability. Official rabies surveillance data between 2010 and 2015 were used along with possible risk factors, such as livestock biomass, environmental changes, and geomorphological characteristics. Several scenarios were established to evaluate the prediction of the occurrence of livestock rabies cases by determining more than one cut-off point of the receptivity variables. During the study period, the precision of the model was estimated through the sensitivity (39.46%) and specificity (98.64%) by using confusion matrices. Targeting control efforts, especially in districts with a high estimated risk, could represent the prevention of a significant proportion of livestock rabies cases, which would optimize the human and economic resources of the Peruvian surveillance service. However, the quality of data produced by the surveillance should be improved not only to obtain higher model precision but also to allow the adequate planning of control actions.(AU)


Raiva de herbívoros é endêmica no Peru. Consequentemente, sua disseminação persistente e anual representa um importante impacto econômico, especialmente às comunidades rurais empobrecidas. A doença é principalmente transmitida pelo morcego hematófago Desmodus rotundus. Este estudo tem por objetivo adaptar um modelo preditivo pré-existente às ocorrências de raiva de herbívoros no Peru, no qual o risco de transmissão de morcegos para os herbívoros foi estimado por meio de árvores de cenários de receptividade e vulnerabilidade. Foram usados os dados oficiais de vigilância da raiva entre 2010 e 2015, assim como os possíveis fatores de risco, tais quais a biomassa de animais, alterações ambientais e características geomorfológicas. Diversos cenários foram criados para avaliar a predição da ocorrência da raiva por meio da determinação de diversos pontos de corte das variáveis de receptividade. Durante o período de estudo, a precisão do modelo foi estimada por meio da sensibilidade (39,46%) e especificidade (98,64%), utilizando matrizes de confusão. Focando em esforços de controle, especialmente em distritos com elevado risco estimado, seria possível prevenir uma proporção significativa dos focos, o que poderia otimizar os recursos humanos e econômicos do serviço oficial peruano. Entretanto, a qualidade dos dados produzidos pelo sistema de vigilância deveria ser melhorada não somente para obter maior precisão do modelo, mas também para possibilitar o melhor planejamento das ações de controle desta doença.(AU)


Subject(s)
Animals , Rabies virus , Proportional Hazards Models , Chiroptera/virology , Infections/diagnosis
10.
Article in English | WPRIM | ID: wpr-880372

ABSTRACT

INTRODUCTION@#The survival of HIV/AIDS patients on antiretroviral therapy (ART) is determined by a number of factors, including economic, demographic, behavioral, and institutional factors. Understanding the survival time and its trend is crucial to developing policies that will result in changes. The aim of this study was to compare the survival estimates of different subgroups and look into the predictors of HIV/AIDS patient survival.@*METHODS@#A retrospective cohort study of HIV/AIDS patients receiving ART at the University of Gondar teaching hospital was carried out. To compare the survival of various groups, a Kaplan-Meier survival analysis was performed. The Cox proportional hazards model was used to identify factors influencing HIV/AIDS patient survival rates.@*RESULTS@#In the current study, 5.91% of the 354 HIV/AIDS patients under ART follow-up were uncensored or died. Age (HR = 1.051) and lack of formal education (HR = 5.032) were associated with lower survival rate, whereas family size of one to two (HR = 0.167), three to four (HR = 0.120), no alcoholic consumption (HR = 0.294), no smoking and chat use (HR = 0.101), baseline weight (HR = 0.920), current weight (HR = 0.928), baseline CD4 cell count (HR = 0.990), baseline hemoglobin (HR = 0.800), and no TB diseases were associated with longer survival rate.@*CONCLUSIONS@#Fewer deaths were reported in a study area due to high patient adherence, compared to previous similar studies. Age, educational status, family size, alcohol consumption, tobacco and chat usage, baseline and current weight, baseline CD4 cell count, baseline hemoglobin, and tuberculosis (TB) diseases were all significant predictors of survival of HIV/AIDS patients.


Subject(s)
Adolescent , Adult , Aged , Aged, 80 and over , Anti-HIV Agents/therapeutic use , Cohort Studies , Ethiopia/epidemiology , Female , HIV Infections/mortality , Hospitals , Humans , Male , Middle Aged , Proportional Hazards Models , Retrospective Studies , Survival Rate , Young Adult
11.
Article in English | WPRIM | ID: wpr-880355

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND@#Among former Olympic-level athletes, engagement in different sport disciplines has been associated with mortality risk in subsequent years. However, limited evidence is available on whether engagement in different sport disciplines at a young age is associated with locomotive syndrome (LS) risk later in life. This study examined the relationship between engagement in different sport disciplines during university years and LS risk in older age among former university athletes.@*METHODS@#Participants were 274 middle-aged and 294 older men alumni who graduated from a school of physical education in Japan. LS risk was defined as answering "yes" to any of the Loco-check questions. Data on university sports club membership were collected using questionnaires. University clubs were classified into three groups of cardiovascular intensity (low, moderate, high), following the classification system of sport disciplines by the American College of Cardiology. This classification considers the static and dynamic components of an activity, which correspond to the estimated percent of maximal voluntary contraction reached and maximal oxygen uptake achieved, respectively. University clubs were grouped based on the risk of bodily collision (no, yes) and extent of physical contact (low, moderate, high). Relationships between engagement in different sport disciplines and LS risk were analyzed using Cox proportional hazards models, and adjusted for age, height, weight, joint disease, habitual exercise, and smoking and drinking status.@*RESULTS@#Adjusted hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals associated with the low, moderate, and high cardiovascular intensity sports were 1.00 (reference), 0.48 (0.22-1.06, P = 0.070), and 0.44 (0.20-0.97, P = 0.042) in older men, respectively; however, there was no significant association between these parameters among middle-aged men. Engagement in sports associated with physical contact and collision did not affect LS risk in either group.@*CONCLUSIONS@#Engagement in sports associated with high cardiovascular intensity during university years may reduce the risk of LS in later life. Encouraging young people to participate in such activities might help reduce LS prevalence among older populations.


Subject(s)
Adult , Aged , Aged, 80 and over , Athletes/statistics & numerical data , Exercise , Geriatric Assessment , Humans , Japan/epidemiology , Locomotion , Male , Middle Aged , Mobility Limitation , Motor Disorders/etiology , Postural Balance , Prevalence , Proportional Hazards Models , Risk Factors , Sports/statistics & numerical data , Syndrome , Young Adult
12.
Article in Chinese | WPRIM | ID: wpr-880041

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE@#To investigate the effect of clinical baseline data on prognosis in patients with multiple myeloma (MM) complicated by extramedullary disease (EMD).@*METHODS@#The clinical data of 46 MM patients with EMD were retrospectively analyzed. The clinical data and survival prognosis of MM patients in primary EMD group and recurrent EMD group were analyzed. The classified baseline data were expressed by the number of cases (percentage), the χ@*RESULTS@#β @*CONCLUSION@#The remission depth of primary EMD group≥VGPR is lower than that of recurrent EMD group,and the OS time of patients in primary EMD group is shorter than that in recurrent EMD group. Bortezomib-based chemotherapy could not improve the prognosis of patients with primary EMD and recurrent EMD, and the prognosis of patients with primary EMD is even worse.


Subject(s)
Bortezomib , Disease-Free Survival , Humans , Multiple Myeloma , Prognosis , Proportional Hazards Models , Retrospective Studies
13.
Article in Chinese | WPRIM | ID: wpr-880037

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE@#To explore the relationship between Treg cells level in peripheral blood and prognosis of patients with diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL).@*METHODS@#The percentage and absolute value of Treg cells in peripheral blood of DLBCL patients were detected by flow lytometry, and their correlation to prognosis was analyzed by survival analysis. The absolute count of Treg cells was detected by using maximally selected Log-rank statistic, and it was used as cutoff point to distinguish difference survival. The new group of Treg based on cutoff point was combined with age, sex, pathological subtype, risk stratification, treatment plan, and other indicators to include in the single factor survival analysis of Kaplan-Meier. Finally, the COX proportional risk model was used to verify the effect of the above indicators on progression-free survival.@*RESULTS@#The absolute count of Treg cells in DLBCL patients was significantly lower in the disease progressed group than those in the remission group. The cutoff point of absolute value of the Treg cell was 19 cells /μl. The absolute count of Treg cells was an independent prognostic factor of the risk stratification.@*CONCLUSION@#At the beginning of diagnosis, the reduction of the absolute count of Treg cells in peripheral blood of DLBCL patients show a poor prognosis.


Subject(s)
Humans , Lymphoma, Large B-Cell, Diffuse , Monocytes , Prognosis , Proportional Hazards Models , Retrospective Studies , T-Lymphocytes, Regulatory
14.
Article in English | WPRIM | ID: wpr-922196

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND@#Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is an independent risk factor for progression to an end-stage renal disease requiring dialysis or kidney transplantation. We investigated the association of lifestyle behaviors with the initiation of renal replacement therapy (RRT) among CKD patients using an employment-based health insurance claims database linked with specific health checkup (SHC) data.@*METHODS@#This retrospective cohort study included 149,620 CKD patients aged 40-74 years who underwent a SHC between April 2008 and March 2016. CKD patients were identified using ICD-10 diagnostic codes and SHC results. We investigated lifestyle behaviors recorded at SHC. Initiation of RRT was defined by medical procedure claims. Lifestyle behaviors related to the initiation of RRT were identified using a Cox proportional hazards regression model with recency-weighted cumulative exposure as a time-dependent covariate.@*RESULTS@#During 384,042 patient-years of follow-up by the end of March 2016, 295 dialysis and no kidney transplantation cases were identified. Current smoking (hazard ratio: 1.87, 95% confidence interval, 1.04─3.36), skipping breakfast (4.80, 1.98─11.62), and taking sufficient rest along with sleep (2.09, 1.14─3.85) were associated with the initiation of RRT.@*CONCLUSIONS@#Among CKD patients, the lifestyle behaviors of smoking, skipping breakfast, and sufficient rest along with sleep were independently associated with the initiation of RRT. Our study strengthens the importance of monitoring lifestyle behaviors to delay the progression of mild CKD to RRT in the Japanese working generation. A substantial portion of subjects had missing data for eGFR and drinking frequency, warranting verification of these results in prospective studies.


Subject(s)
Aged , Cohort Studies , Databases, Factual , Disease Progression , Female , Health Benefit Plans, Employee , Humans , Japan/epidemiology , Life Style , Male , Meals , Middle Aged , Proportional Hazards Models , Renal Insufficiency, Chronic/therapy , Renal Replacement Therapy , Retrospective Studies , Sleep , Smoking/epidemiology
15.
Article in English | WPRIM | ID: wpr-878336

ABSTRACT

Objective@#Evidence is lacking regarding the combined effects of smoking and obesity on mortality from coronary heart disease in male veterans. This study aimed to explore the combined effect of smoking and obesity on coronary heart disease mortality in male veterans in China.@*Methods@#A cohort of 1,268 male veterans from 22 veteran centers in Xi'an (Shaanxi Province, China) were followed up once every 2 years from February 1, 1987 to October 30, 2016. The endpoint was death from any cause. The hazard ratio ( @*Results@#The total follow-up was 24394.21 person-years; each subject was followed up for a mean duration of 19.24 years. By the end of the study, of the 1,268 veterans, 889 had died, 363 were alive, and 16 were lost to follow-up. Cox regression analysis results revealed that current smoking ( @*Conclusion@#Our results suggest that obese veterans who smoke might be an important target population for coronary heart disease mortality control.


Subject(s)
Aged , China/epidemiology , Coronary Disease/mortality , Humans , Male , Middle Aged , Obesity/complications , Proportional Hazards Models , Risk Factors , Smoking , Veterans/statistics & numerical data
16.
Article in English | WPRIM | ID: wpr-878315

ABSTRACT

Objective@#To investigate the association between blood pressure and all-cause mortality in Shanxi, China.@*Methods@#The '2002 China Nutrition and Health Survey' baseline data in Shanxi province was used. A retrospective investigation was performed in 2015. The effects of SBP and DBP on the all-cause mortality were analyzed using the Cox regression model. The hazard ratio ( @*Results@#The follow-up rate was 76.52% over 13 years, while the cumulative mortality rate for all participants was 917.12/100,000 person-years. The mortality rose with an increasing SBP ( @*Conclusion@#Adults with SBP > 160 mmHg and DBP > 100 mmHg had a higher mortality risk. Sex and age difference was noted in both DBP and mortality risk.


Subject(s)
Adolescent , Adult , Aged , Blood Pressure , China , Cohort Studies , Female , Health Surveys , Humans , Hypertension/mortality , Male , Middle Aged , Mortality/trends , Proportional Hazards Models , Young Adult
17.
Chinese Medical Journal ; (24): 1431-1440, 2021.
Article in English | WPRIM | ID: wpr-878193

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND@#The impacts of previous cardio-cerebrovascular disease (pre-CCVD) on the outcomes of hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT) are not well described. Patients with pre-CCVD may often be poor candidates for HCT. This study aimed to investigate the impact of pre-CCVD on transplant outcomes.@*METHODS@#A retrospective study was conducted between patients with and without pre-CCVD who consecutively received allogeneic or autologous HCT between November 2013 and January 2020 with a matching of age and disease status. The cardiovascular complications and HCT outcomes of the two groups were evaluated and compared. The primary endpoints were post-transplant cardio-cerebrovascular disease (post-CCVD) and non-relapse mortality (NRM). We used a multivariable Cox proportional hazard model and the Fine-Gray competing risk regressions for analyses to estimate the hazard ratios (HRs).@*RESULTS@#The outcomes of 23 HCT recipients with pre-CCVD were compared with those of 107 patients in the control group. No significant differences were noted in terms of engraftment, overall survival (OS) (67.00% vs. 67.90%, P = 0.983), or relapse (29.78% vs. 28.26%, P = 0.561) between the pre-CCVD group and the control group. The cumulative incidences of 2-year NRM were similar between patients with pre-CCVD and the controls (14.68% vs. 17.08%, P = 0.670). However, pre-CCVD was associated with an increased incidence of post-CCVD (HR: 12.50, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 3.88-40.30, P < 0.001), which was an independent risk factor for increased NRM (HR: 10.29, 95% CI: 3.84-27.62, P < 0.001) and inferior OS (HR: 10.29, 95% CI: 3.84-27.62, P < 0.001).@*CONCLUSIONS@#These findings suggest that the existence of pre-CCVD before transplantation might not result in increased mortality directly but superpose the toxicity of the transplantation procedure, leading to a risk of post-CCVD. Post-CCVD was a powerful predictor for high NRM and inferior OS. Further risk stratification of pre-CCVD is needed to reduce NRM in various transplantation settings.


Subject(s)
Cerebrovascular Disorders/etiology , Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplantation/adverse effects , Humans , Proportional Hazards Models , Retrospective Studies , Transplantation Conditioning , Transplantation, Autologous
18.
Chinese Medical Journal ; (24): 2857-2864, 2021.
Article in English | WPRIM | ID: wpr-921246

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUNDS@#Physical activity (PA) and sedentary behavior (SB) have been associated with mortality, while the joint association with mortality is rarely reported among Chinese population. We aimed to examine the independent and joint association of PA and SB with all-cause mortality in southern China.@*METHODS@#A cohort of 12,608 China Hypertension Survey participants aged ≥35 years were enrolled in 2013 to 2014, with a follow-up period of 5.4 years. Baseline self-reported PA and SB were collected via the questionnaire. Kaplan-Meier curves (log-rank test) and Cox proportional hazards regression were performed to evaluate the associations of PA and SB on all-cause mortality.@*RESULTS@#A total of 11,744 eligible participants were included in the analysis. Over an average of 5.4 years of follow-up, 796 deaths occurred. The risk of all-cause mortality was lower among participants with high PA than those with low to moderate level (5.2% vs. 8.9%; hazards ratio [HR]: 0.75, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.61-0.87). Participants with SB ≥ 6 h had a higher risk of all-cause mortality than those with SB <6 h (7.8% vs. 6.0%; HR: 1.37, 95% CI: 1.17-1.61). Participants with prolonged SB (≥6 h) and inadequate PA (low to moderate) had a higher risk of all-cause mortality compared to those with SB < 6 h and high PA (11.2% vs. 4.9%; HR: 1.67, 95% CI: 1.35-2.06). Even in the participants with high PA, prolonged SB (≥6 h) was still associated with the higher risk of all-cause mortality compared with SB < 6 h (7.0% vs. 4.9%; HR: 1.33, 95% CI: 1.12-1.56).@*CONCLUSIONS@#Among Chinese population, PA and SB have a joint association with the risk of all-cause mortality. Participants with inadequate PA and prolonged SB had the highest risk of all-cause mortality compared with others.


Subject(s)
Exercise , Humans , Proportional Hazards Models , Sedentary Behavior , Self Report , Surveys and Questionnaires
19.
Chinese Medical Journal ; (24): 2976-2984, 2021.
Article in English | WPRIM | ID: wpr-921232

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND@#Prospective analyses have yet to identify a consistent relationship between sleep duration and the incidence of gastrointestinal (GI) cancers. The effect of changes in sleep duration on GI cancer incidence has scarcely been studied. Therefore, we aimed to examine the association between baseline sleep duration and annual changes in sleep duration and GI cancer risk in a large population-based cohort study.@*METHODS@#A total of 123,495 participants with baseline information and 83,511 participants with annual changes in sleep duration information were prospectively observed from 2006 to 2015 for cancer incidence. Cox proportional-hazards models were used to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) and their confidence intervals (CIs) for GI cancers according to sleep duration and annual changes in sleep duration.@*RESULTS@#In baseline sleep duration analyses, short sleep duration (≤5 h) was significantly associated with a lower risk of GI cancer in females (HR: 0.31, 95% CI: 0.10-0.90), and a linear relationship between baseline sleep duration and GI cancer was observed (P = 0.010), especially in males and in the >50-year-old group. In the annual changes in sleep duration analyses, with stable category (0 to -15 min/year) as the control group, decreased sleep duration (≤-15 min/year) was significantly associated with the development of GI cancer (HR: 1.29; 95% CI: 1.04-1.61), especially in the >50-year-old group (HR: 1.32; 95% CI: 1.01-1.71), and increased sleep duration (>0 min/year) was significantly associated with GI cancer in females (HR: 2.89; 95% CI: 1.14-7.30).@*CONCLUSIONS@#Both sleep duration and annual changes in sleep duration were associated with the incidence of GI cancer.


Subject(s)
Cohort Studies , Female , Gastrointestinal Neoplasms/etiology , Humans , Incidence , Male , Middle Aged , Proportional Hazards Models , Prospective Studies , Risk Factors , Sleep
20.
Chinese Medical Journal ; (24): 2231-2236, 2021.
Article in English | WPRIM | ID: wpr-921111

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND@#Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) is a fatal neurodegenerative disorder associated with loss of motor neurons. Our objective was to explore the epidemiology, clinical features, and survival factors of 1809 patients with ALS.@*METHODS@#We analyzed 1809 ALS patients, who were recruited from the Peking University Third Hospital from January 2005 to December 2015. Demographic data and disease-related parameters were collected. Kaplan-Meier curves were used to compare survival time. Cox proportional hazards function and the hazard ratio were used to identify adjusted prognostic predictors.@*RESULTS@#The results showed that the average annual incidence in Beijing alone was 0.38 cases/100,000 person-years and the mean age of onset was 48.88 ± 11.35 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 48.17-49.85) years. The median survival time from onset to death/tracheostomy was 58.89 ± 33.03 (95% CI: 51.46-63.84) months. In the adjusted Cox proportional hazard model, age of onset, diagnosis delay, rate of disease progression (Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis Functional Rating Scale Revised decline [points/month]), and body mass index all had an independent effect on survival in ALS.@*CONCLUSIONS@#Our study provides information on epidemiology, clinical features, and survival factors of patients with ALS in China. These results can be helpful in clinical practice, clinical trial design, and validation of new tools to predict disease progression.


Subject(s)
Adult , Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis/epidemiology , China/epidemiology , Cohort Studies , Disease Progression , Humans , Middle Aged , Prognosis , Proportional Hazards Models
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