Sexual Violence Trends before and after Rollout of COVID-19 Mitigation Measures, Kenya.

COVID-19 mitigation measures such as curfews, lockdowns, and movement restrictions are effective in reducing the transmission of SARS-CoV-2; however, these measures can enable sexual violence. We used data from the Kenya Health Information System and different time-series approaches to model the unintended consequences of COVID-19 mitigation measures on sexual violence trends in Kenya. We found a model-dependent 73%-122% increase in reported sexual violence cases, mostly among persons 10-17 years of age, translating to 35,688 excess sexual violence cases above what would have been expected in the absence of COVID-19-related restrictions. In addition, during lockdown, the percentage of reported rape survivors receiving recommended HIV PEP decreased from 61% to 51% and STI treatment from 72% to 61%. Sexual violence mitigation measures might include establishing comprehensive national sexual violence surveillance systems, enhancing prevention efforts during school closures, and maintaining access to essential comprehensive services for all ages and sexes.

Methods for conducting trends analysis: roadmap for comparing outcomes from three national HIV Population-based household surveys in Kenya (2007, 2012, and 2018).

BACKGROUND: For assessing the HIV epidemic in Kenya, a series of independent HIV indicator household-based surveys of similar design can be used to investigate the trends in key indicators relevant to HIV prevention and control and to describe geographic and sociodemographic disparities, assess the impact of interventions, and develop strategies. We developed methods and tools to facilitate a robust analysis of trends across three national household-based surveys conducted in Kenya in 2007, 2012, and 2018. METHODS: We used data from the 2007 and 2012 Kenya AIDS Indicator surveys (KAIS 2007 and KAIS 2012) and the 2018 Kenya Population-based HIV Impact Assessment (KENPHIA 2018). To assess the design and other variables of interest from each study, variables were recoded to ensure that they had equivalent meanings across the three surveys. After assessing weighting procedures for comparability, we used the KAIS 2012 nonresponse weighting procedure to revise normalized KENPHIA weights. Analyses were restricted to geographic areas covered by all three surveys. The revised analysis files were then merged into a single file for pooled analysis. We assessed distributions of age, sex, household wealth, and urban/rural status to identify unexpected changes between surveys. To demonstrate how a trend analysis can be carried out, we used continuous, binary, and time-to-event variables as examples. Specifically, temporal trends in age at first sex and having received an HIV test in the last 12 months were used to demonstrate the proposed analytical approach. These were assessed with respondent-specific variables (age, sex, level of education, and marital status) and household variables (place of residence and wealth index). All analyses were conducted in SAS 9.4, but analysis files were created in Stata and R format to support additional analyses. RESULTS: This study demonstrates trends in selected indicators to illustrate the approach that can be used in similar settings. The incidence of early sexual debut decreased from 11.63 (95% CI: 10.95-12.34) per 1,000 person-years at risk in 2007 to 10.45 (95% CI: 9.75-11.2) per 1,000 person-years at risk in 2012 and to 9.58 (95% CI: 9.08-10.1) per 1,000 person-years at risk in 2018. HIV-testing rates increased from 12.6% (95% CI: 11.6%-13.6%) in 2007 to 56.1% (95% CI: 54.6%-57.6%) in 2012 but decreased slightly to 55.6% [95% CI: 54.6%-56.6%) in 2018. The decrease in incidence of early sexual debut could be convincingly demonstrated between 2007 and 2012 but not between 2012 and 2018. Similarly, there was virtually no difference between HIV Testing rates in 2012 and 2018. CONCLUSIONS: Our approach can be used to support trend comparisons for variables in HIV surveys in low-income settings. Independent national household surveys can be assessed for comparability, adjusted as appropriate, and used to estimate trends in key indicators. Analyzing trends over time can not only provide insights into Kenya's progress toward HIV epidemic control but also identify gaps.

Development and Validation of a Sociodemographic and Behavioral Characteristics-Based Risk-Score Algorithm for Targeting HIV Testing Among Adults in Kenya.

To inform targeted HIV testing, we developed and externally validated a risk-score algorithm that incorporated behavioral characteristics. Outpatient data from five health facilities in western Kenya, comprising 19,458 adults ≥ 15 years tested for HIV from September 2017 to May 2018, were included in univariable and multivariable analyses used for algorithm development. Data for 11,330 adults attending one high-volume facility were used for validation. Using the final algorithm, patients were grouped into four risk-score categories: ≤ 9, 10-15, 16-29 and ≥ 30, with increasing HIV prevalence of 0.6% [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.46-0.75], 1.35% (95% CI 0.85-1.84), 2.65% (95% CI 1.8-3.51), and 15.15% (95% CI 9.03-21.27), respectively. The algorithm's discrimination performance was modest, with an area under the receiver-operating-curve of 0.69 (95% CI 0.53-0.84). In settings where universal testing is not feasible, a risk-score algorithm can identify sub-populations with higher HIV-risk to be prioritized for HIV testing.

Mapping geographic clusters of new HIV diagnoses to inform granular-level interventions for HIV epidemic control in western Kenya.

BACKGROUND: As countries make progress towards HIV epidemic control, there is increasing need to identify finer geographic areas to target HIV interventions. We mapped geographic clusters of new HIV diagnoses, and described factors associated with HIV-positive diagnosis, in order to inform targeting of HIV interventions to finer geographic areas and sub-populations. METHODS: We analyzed data for clients aged > 15 years who received home-based HIV testing as part of a routine public health program between May 2016 and July 2017 in Siaya County, western Kenya. Geospatial analysis using Kulldorff's spatial scan statistic was used to detect geographic clusters (radius < 5 kilometers) of new HIV diagnoses. Factors associated with new HIV diagnosis were assessed in a spatially-integrated Bayesian hierarchical model. RESULTS: Of 268,153 clients with HIV test results, 2906 (1.1%) were diagnosed HIV-positive. We found spatial variation in the distribution of new HIV diagnoses, and identified nine clusters in which the number of new HIV diagnoses was significantly (1.56 to 2.64 times) higher than expected. Sub-populations with significantly higher HIV-positive yield identified in the multivariable spatially-integrated Bayesian model included: clients aged 20-24 years [adjusted relative risk (aRR) 3.45, 95% Bayesian Credible Intervals (CI) 2.85-4.20], 25-35 years (aRR 4.76, 95% CI 3.92-5.81) and > 35 years (aRR 2.44, 95% CI 1.99-3.00); those in polygamous marriage (aRR 1.84, 95% CI 1.55-2.16), or separated/divorced (aRR 3.36, 95% CI 2.72-4.08); and clients who reported having never been tested for HIV (aRR 2.35, 95% CI 2.02-2.72), or having been tested > 12 months ago (aRR 1.53, 95% CI 1.41-1.66). CONCLUSION: Our study used routine public health program data to identify granular geographic clusters of higher new HIV diagnoses, and sub-populations with higher HIV-positive yield in the setting of a generalized HIV epidemic. In order to target HIV testing and prevention interventions to finer granular geographic areas for maximal epidemiologic impact, integrating geospatial analysis into routine public health programs can be useful.

Predictors of health workers' knowledge about artesunate-based severe malaria treatment recommendations in government and faith-based hospitals in Kenya.

BACKGROUND: Health workers' knowledge deficiencies about artesunate-based severe malaria treatment recommendations have been reported. However, predictors of the treatment knowledge have not been examined. In this paper, predictors of artesunate-based treatment knowledge among inpatient health workers in two hospital sectors in Kenya are reported. METHODS: Secondary analysis of 367 and 330 inpatient health workers randomly selected and interviewed at 47 government hospitals in 2016 and 43 faith-based hospitals in 2017 respectively, was undertaken. Multilevel ordinal and binary logistic regressions examining the effects of 11 factors on five knowledge outcomes in government and faith-based hospital sectors were performed. RESULTS: Among respective government and faith-based health workers, about a third of health workers had high knowledge of artesunate treatment policies (30.8% vs 32.9%), a third knew all dosing intervals (33.5% vs 33.3%), about half knew preparation solutions (49.9% vs 55.8%), half to two-thirds knew artesunate dose for both weight categories (50.8% vs 66.7%) and over three-quarters knew the preferred route of administration (78.7% vs 82.4%). Eight predictors were significantly associated with at least one of the examined knowledge outcomes. In the government sector, display of artesunate administration posters, paediatric ward allocation and repeated surveys were significantly associated with more than one of the knowledge outcomes. In the faith-based hospitals, availability of artesunate at hospitals and health worker pre-service training were associated with multiple outcomes. Exposure to in-service malaria case-management training and access to malaria guidelines were only associated with higher knowledge about artesunate treatment policy. CONCLUSION: Programmatic interventions ensuring display of artesunate administration posters in the wards, targeting of health workers managing adult patients in the medical wards, and repeated knowledge assessments are likely to be beneficial for improving the knowledge of government health workers about artesunate-based severe malaria treatment recommendations. The availability of artesunate and focus on improvements of nurses' knowledge should be prioritized at the faith-based hospitals.

Bayesian modeling of spatiotemporal patterns of TB-HIV co-infection risk in Kenya.

BACKGROUND: Tuberculosis (TB) and Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) diseases are globally acknowledged as a public health challenge that exhibits adverse bidirectional relations due to the co-epidemic overlap. To understand the co-infection burden we used the case notification data to generate spatiotemporal maps that described the distribution and exposure hypotheses for further epidemiologic investigations in areas with unusual case notification levels. METHODS: We analyzed the TB and TB-HIV case notification data from the Kenya national TB control program aggregated for forty-seven counties over a seven-year period (2012-2018). Using spatiotemporal poisson regression models within the Integrated Nested Laplace Approach (INLA) paradygm, we modeled the risk of TB-HIV co-infection. Six competing models with varying space-time formulations were compared to determine the best fit model. We then assessed the geographic patterns and temporal trends of coinfection risk by mapping the posterior marginal from the best fit model. RESULTS: Of the total 608,312 TB case notifications, 194,129 were HIV co-infected. The proportion of TB-HIV co-infection was higher in females (39.7%) than in males (27.0%). A significant share of the co-infection was among adults aged 35 to 44 years (46.7%) and 45 to 54 years (42.1%). Based on the Bayesian Defiance Information (DIC) and the effective number of parameters (pD) comparisons, the spatiotemporal model allowing space-time interaction was the best in explaining the geographical variations in TB-HIV coinfection. The model results suggested that the risk of TB-HIV coinfection was influenced by infrastructure index (Relative risk (RR) = 5.75, Credible Interval (Cr.I) = (1.65, 19.89)) and gender ratio (RR = 5.81e-04, Cr. I = (1.06e-04, 3.18e-03). The lowest and highest temporal relative risks were in the years 2016 at 0.9 and 2012 at 1.07 respectively. The spatial pattern presented an increased co-infection risk in a number of counties. For the spatiotemporal interaction, only a few counties had a relative risk greater than 1 that varied in different years. CONCLUSIONS: We identified elevated risk areas for TB/HIV co-infection and fluctuating temporal trends which could be because of improved TB case detection or surveillance bias caused by spatial heterogeneity in the co-infection dynamics. Focused interventions and continuous TB-HIV surveillance will ensure adequate resource allocation and significant reduction of HIV burden amongst TB patients.

Time series non-Gaussian Bayesian bivariate model applied to data on HMPV and RSV: a case of Dadaab in Kenya.

BACKGROUND: Human metapneumovirus (HMPV) have similar symptoms to those caused by the respiratory syncytial virus (RSV). The modes of transmission and dynamics of time series data still remain poorly understood. Climatic factors have long been suspected to be implicated in impacting on the number of cases for these epidemics. Currently, only a few models satisfactorily capture the dynamics of time series data of these two viruses. Our objective was to assess the presence of influence of high incidences between the viruses and to ascertain whether higher incidences of one virus are influenced by the other. METHODS: In this study, we used a negative binomial model to investigate the relationship between RSV and HMPV while adjusting for climatic factors. We specifically aimed at establishing the heterogeneity in the autoregressive effect to account for the influence between these viruses. RESULTS: In this study, our findings showed that RSV incidence contributed to the severity of HMPV incidence. This was achieved through comparison of 12 models with different structures, including those with and without interaction between climatic factors. The models with climatic factors out-performed those without. CONCLUSIONS: The study has improved our understanding of the dynamics of RSV and HMPV in relation to climatic cofactors thereby setting a platform to devise better intervention measures to combat the epidemics. We conclude that preventing and controlling RSV infection subsequently reduces the incidence of HMPV.

Noncommunicable disease burden among HIV patients in care: a national retrospective longitudinal analysis of HIV-treatment outcomes in Kenya, 2003-2013.

BACKGROUND: Over the last decade, the Kenyan HIV treatment program has grown exponentially, with improved survival among people living with HIV (PLHIV). In the same period, noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) have become a leading contributor to disease burden. We sought to characterize the burden of four major NCDs (cardiovascular diseases, cancer, chronic respiratory diseases and diabetes mellitus) among adult PLHIV in Kenya. METHODS: We conducted a nationally representative retrospective medical chart review of HIV-infected adults aged ≥15 years enrolled in HIV care in Kenya from October 1, 2003 through September 30, 2013. We estimated proportions of four NCD categories among PLHIV at enrollment into HIV care, and during subsequent HIV care visits. We compared proportions and assessed distributions of co-morbidities using the Chi-Square test. We calculated NCD incidence rates and their confidence intervals in assessing cofactors for developing NCDs. RESULTS: We analyzed 3170 records of HIV-infected patients; 2115 (66.3%) were from women. Slightly over half (51.1%) of patient records were from PLHIVs aged above 35 years. Close to two-thirds (63.9%) of PLHIVs were on ART. Proportion of any documented NCD among PLHIV was 11.5% (95% confidence interval [CI] 9.3, 14.1), with elevated blood pressure as the most common NCD 343 (87.5%) among PLHIV with a diagnosed NCD. Despite this observation, only 17 (4.9%) patients had a corresponding documented diagnosis of hypertension in their medical record. Overall NCD incidence rates for men and women were (42.3 per 1000 person years [95% CI 35.8, 50.1] and 31.6 [95% CI 27.7, 36.1], respectively. Compared to women, the incidence rate ratio for men developing an NCD was 1.3 [95% CI 1.1, 1.7], p = 0.0082). No differences in NCD incidence rates were seen by marital or employment status. At one year of follow up 43.8% of PLHIV not on ART had been diagnosed with an NCD compared to 3.7% of patients on ART; at five years the proportions with a diagnosed NCD were 88.8 and 39.2% (p < 0.001), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: PLHIV in Kenya have a high prevalence of NCD diagnoses. In the absence of systematic, effective screening, NCD burden is likely underestimated in this population. Systematic screening and treatment for NCDs using standard guidelines should be integrated into HIV care and treatment programs in sub-Saharan Africa.

Factors associated with malaria microscopy diagnostic performance following a pilot quality-assurance programme in health facilities in malaria low-transmission areas of Kenya, 2014.

BACKGROUND: Malaria accounts for ~21% of outpatient visits annually in Kenya; prompt and accurate malaria diagnosis is critical to ensure proper treatment. In 2013, formal malaria microscopy refresher training for microscopists and a pilot quality-assurance (QA) programme for malaria diagnostics were independently implemented to improve malaria microscopy diagnosis in malaria low-transmission areas of Kenya. A study was conducted to identify factors associated with malaria microscopy performance in the same areas. METHODS: From March to April 2014, a cross-sectional survey was conducted in 42 public health facilities; 21 were QA-pilot facilities. In each facility, 18 malaria thick blood slides archived during January-February 2014 were selected by simple random sampling. Each malaria slide was re-examined by two expert microscopists masked to health-facility results. Expert results were used as the reference for microscopy performance measures. Logistic regression with specific random effects modelling was performed to identify factors associated with accurate malaria microscopy diagnosis. RESULTS: Of 756 malaria slides collected, 204 (27%) were read as positive by health-facility microscopists and 103 (14%) as positive by experts. Overall, 93% of slide results from QA-pilot facilities were concordant with expert reference compared to 77% in non-QA pilot facilities (p < 0.001). Recently trained microscopists in QA-pilot facilities performed better on microscopy performance measures with 97% sensitivity and 100% specificity compared to those in non-QA pilot facilities (69% sensitivity; 93% specificity; p < 0.01). The overall inter-reader agreement between QA-pilot facilities and experts was κ = 0.80 (95% CI 0.74-0.88) compared to κ = 0.35 (95% CI 0.24-0.46) between non-QA pilot facilities and experts (p < 0.001). In adjusted multivariable logistic regression analysis, recent microscopy refresher training (prevalence ratio [PR] = 13.8; 95% CI 4.6-41.4), ≥5 years of work experience (PR = 3.8; 95% CI 1.5-9.9), and pilot QA programme participation (PR = 4.3; 95% CI 1.0-11.0) were significantly associated with accurate malaria diagnosis. CONCLUSIONS: Microscopists who had recently completed refresher training and worked in a QA-pilot facility performed the best overall. The QA programme and formal microscopy refresher training should be systematically implemented together to improve parasitological diagnosis of malaria by microscopy in Kenya.

Factors associated with delays in seeking post abortion care among women in Kenya.

BACKGROUND: Delays in seeking quality post abortion care services remain a major contributor to high levels of mortality and morbidity among women who experience unsafe abortion. However, little is known about the causes of and factors associated with delays in seeking care among women who suffer complications of unsafe abortion. This study looks at factors that are associated with delays in seeking post-abortion care among women in Kenya. METHODS: Data for this study were from a nationally representative sample of 350 healthcare facilities that participated in the 2012 Incidence and Magnitude of Unsafe Abortion study in Kenya. Data included socio-demographic characteristics, reproductive health and clinical histories from all women treated with PAC during a one-month data collection period. RESULTS: Delay in seeking care was associated with women's age, education level, contraceptive history, fertility intentions and referral status. CONCLUSIONS: There is need to improve women's access to quality sexual and reproductive health information and services, contraception and abortion care. Improving current PAC services at lower level facilities will also minimize delays resulting from long referral processes.

Understanding the determinants of under-five child mortality in Uganda including the estimation of unobserved household and community effects using both frequentist and Bayesian survival analysis approaches.

BACKGROUND: Infant and child mortality rates are among the health indicators of importance in a given community or country. It is the fourth millennium development goal that by 2015, all the United Nations member countries are expected to have reduced their infant and child mortality rates by two-thirds. Uganda is one of those countries in Sub-Saharan Africa with high infant and child mortality rates, therefore it is important to use sound statistical methods to determine which factors are strongly associated with child mortality which in turn will help inform the design of intervention strategies METHODS: The Uganda Demographic Health Survey (UDHS) funded by USAID, UNFPA, UNICEF, Irish Aid and the United Kingdom government provides a data set which is rich in information on child mortality or survival. Survival analysis techniques are among the well-developed methods in Statistics for analysing time to event data. These methods were adopted in this paper to examine factors affecting under-five child mortality rates (UMR) in Uganda using the UDHS data for 2011 in R and STATA software. RESULTS: Results obtained by fitting the Cox-proportional hazard model with frailty effects and drawing inference using both the frequentists and Bayesian approaches at 5 % significance level, show evidence of the existence of unobserved heterogeneity at the household level but there was not enough evidence to conclude the existence of unobserved heterogeneity at the community level. Sex of the household head, sex of the child and number of births in the past one year were found to be significant. The results further suggest that over the period of 1990-2015, Uganda reduced its UMR by 52 % . CONCLUSION: Uganda has not achieved the MDG4 target but the 52 % reduction in the UMR is a move in the positive direction. Demographic factors (sex of the household head) and Biological determinants (sex of the child and number of births in the past one year) are strongly associated with high UMR. Heterogeneity or unobserved covariates were found to be significant at the household but insignificant at the community level.

Obesogenic Environments: Access to and Advertising of Sugar-Sweetened Beverages in Soweto, South Africa, 2013.

INTRODUCTION: Rates of obesity and overweight among South Africans are increasing. Food marketing has a profound impact on children and affects their lifelong eating patterns; in urban areas of South Africa, disposable incomes are growing and ultra-processed food is increasingly available at low cost. The combination of these factors will strain an already fragile health system. Our aim was to investigate the density of outdoor sugar sweetened beverage (SSB) advertising and the number of formal and informal vendors selling SSBs in a transforming, historically disadvantaged urban setting of South Africa. METHODS: A digital camera and global positioning system navigation system were used to record the location of SSB advertisements and food vendors in a demarcated area in Soweto. Data were collected by walking or driving through each street; a food inventory was completed for every food vendor. Spatial analyses were conducted using a geographic information system. RESULTS: A total of 145 advertisements for SSBs were found over a driven or walked distance of 111.9 km. The density of advertisements was 3.6 per km(2) in relation to schools, and 50% of schools had branded advertising of SSBs on their school property. Most (n = 104; 58%) of the 180 vendors in the study sold SSBs. CONCLUSION: This is the first study in South Africa to document the location of billboard advertisements and vendors in relation to schools. Marketing of products that contribute to obesity is common in urban Soweto. Our findings have implications for policies that regulate SSB advertising, especially in the proximity of schools.

Individual and contextual determinants of adequate maternal health care services in Kenya.

This study aimed to examine individual and community level factors associated with adequate use of maternal antenatal health services in Kenya. Individual and community level factors associated with adequate use of maternal health care (MHC) services were obtained from the 2008-09 Kenya Demographic and Health Survey data set. Multilevel partial-proportional odds logit models were fitted using STATA 13.0 to quantify the relations of the selected covariates to adequate MHC use, defined as a three-category ordinal variable. The sample consisted of 3,621 women who had at least one live birth in the five-year period preceding this survey. Only 18 percent of the women had adequate use of MHC services. Greater educational attainment by the woman or her partner, higher socioeconomic status, access to medical insurance coverage, and greater media exposure were the individual-level factors associated with adequate use of MHC services. Greater community ethnic diversity, higher community-level socioeconomic status, and greater community-level health facility deliveries were the contextual-level factors associated with adequate use of MHC. To improve the use of MHC services in Kenya, the government needs to design and implement programs that target underlying individual and community level factors, providing focused and sustained health education to promote the use of antenatal, delivery, and postnatal care.

Spatial modelling and mapping of female genital mutilation in Kenya.

BACKGROUND: Female genital mutilation/cutting (FGM/C) is still prevalent in several communities in Kenya and other areas in Africa, as well as being practiced by some migrants from African countries living in other parts of the world. This study aimed at detecting clustering of FGM/C in Kenya, and identifying those areas within the country where women still intend to continue the practice. A broader goal of the study was to identify geographical areas where the practice continues unabated and where broad intervention strategies need to be introduced. METHODS: The prevalence of FGM/C was investigated using the 2008 Kenya Demographic and Health Survey (KDHS) data. The 2008 KDHS used a multistage stratified random sampling plan to select women of reproductive age (15-49 years) and asked questions concerning their FGM/C status and their support for the continuation of FGM/C. A spatial scan statistical analysis was carried out using SaTScan™ to test for statistically significant clustering of the practice of FGM/C in the country. The risk of FGM/C was also modelled and mapped using a hierarchical spatial model under the Integrated Nested Laplace approximation approach using the INLA library in R. RESULTS: The prevalence of FGM/C stood at 28.2% and an estimated 10.3% of the women interviewed indicated that they supported the continuation of FGM. On the basis of the Deviance Information Criterion (DIC), hierarchical spatial models with spatially structured random effects were found to best fit the data for both response variables considered. Age, region, rural-urban classification, education, marital status, religion, socioeconomic status and media exposure were found to be significantly associated with FGM/C. The current FGM/C status of a woman was also a significant predictor of support for the continuation of FGM/C. Spatial scan statistics confirm FGM clusters in the North-Eastern and South-Western regions of Kenya (p<0.001). CONCLUSION: This suggests that the fight against FGM/C in Kenya is not yet over. There are still deep cultural and religious beliefs to be addressed in a bid to eradicate the practice. Interventions by government and other stakeholders must address these challenges and target the identified clusters.

HIV risk behaviour, viraemia, and transmission across HIV cascade stages including low-level viremia: Analysis of 14 cross-sectional population-based HIV Impact Assessment surveys in sub-Saharan Africa.

As antiretroviral treatment (ART) coverage for people living with HIV (PLHIV) increases, HIV programmes require up-to-date information about evolving HIV risk behaviour and transmission risk, including those with low-level viremia (LLV; >50 to ≤1000 copies/mL), to guide prevention priorities. We aimed to assess differences in sexual risk behaviours, distribution of viral load (VL) and proportion of transmission across PLHIV subgroups. We analysed data from Population-based HIV Impact Assessment surveys in 14 sub-Saharan African countries during 2015-2019. We estimated adjusted prevalence ratios (aPR) of self-reported HIV high-risk behaviour (multiple partners and condomless sex) across cascade stages via generalised estimation equations. We modelled the proportions of transmission from each subgroup using relative self-reported sexual risk, a Hill function for transmission rate by VL, and proportions within cascade stages from surveys and UNAIDS country estimates for 2010-2020. Compared to PLHIV with undetectable VL (≤50 copies/mL), undiagnosed PLHIV (aPR women: 1.28 [95% CI: 1.08-1.52]; men: 1.61 [1.33-1.95]) and men diagnosed but untreated (2.06 [1.52-2.78]) were more likely to self-report high-risk sex. High-risk behaviour was not significantly associated with LLV. Mean VL was similar among undiagnosed, diagnosed but untreated, and on ART but non-suppressed sub-groups. Across surveys, undiagnosed and diagnosed but untreated contributed most to transmission (40-91% and 1-41%, respectively), with less than 1% from those with LLV. Between 2010 and 2020, the proportion of transmission from individuals on ART but non-suppressed increased. In settings with high ART coverage, effective HIV testing, ART linkage, and retention remain priorities to reduce HIV transmission. Persons with LLV are an increasing share of PLHIV but their contribution to HIV transmission was small. Improving suppression among PLHIV on ART with VL ≥1000 copies/mL will become increasingly important.

Cross-time comparison of adverse childhood experience patterns among Kenyan youth: Violence Against Children and Youth Surveys, 2010 and 2019.

BACKGROUND: Adverse childhood experiences (ACEs) are a global public health concern. Many children experience multiple ACEs. Patterning of multiple ACEs may change over time. OBJECTIVE: To assess latent classes of ACEs among male and female youth in Kenya and evaluate whether ACEs latent classes changed between surveys conducted in 2010 and 2019. PARTICIPANTS AND SETTING: We used data from Kenya Violence Against Children and Youth Survey, a repeated nationally representative survey of male and female youth aged 13-24: 2010 (nf = 1227; nm = 1456) and 2019 (nf = 1344; nm = 788). METHODS: Latent class analysis was used to estimate clustering of seven ACEs: orphanhood, experiencing physical intimate partner violence, physical violence by a parent/caregiver, physical violence by an adult community member, forced first sex, emotional (EV) and sexual violence (SV), stratified by sex and time. RESULTS: For females in 2010, identified classes included (1) SV only, (2) household and community physical violence (PV), EV and SV, (3) household and community PV only, (4) low ACEs, and (5) EV only. In 2019, classes included (1) SV only, (2) household and community PV only, and (3) low ACEs. Among males in 2010, the four-class model included (1) household and community PV with EV, (2) low ACEs, (3) household and community PV with SV, and (4) household and community PV only. In 2019, identified classes included (1) orphanhood and SV, (2) orphanhood and PV, (3) low ACEs, and (4) household and community PV only. For both males and females, across the two survey years, some classes demonstrated continuity (low ACEs and caregiver and community PV for both males and females, and SV for females). Orphanhood emerged as relevant to the ACEs latent class structure in 2019 compared to 2010 among males. CONCLUSION: Prevalence and changes in latent classes between 2010 and 2019 can point toward priority areas and subgroups for violence prevention and response in Kenya.

HIV Incidence, Recent HIV Infection, and Associated Factors, Kenya, 2007-2018.

Nationally representative surveys provide an opportunity to assess trends in recent human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection based on assays for recent HIV infection. We assessed HIV incidence in Kenya in 2018 and trends in recent HIV infection among adolescents and adults in Kenya using nationally representative household surveys conducted in 2007, 2012, and 2018. To assess trends, we defined a recent HIV infection testing algorithm (RITA) that classified as recently infected (<12 months) those HIV-positive participants that were recent on the HIV-1 limiting antigen (LAg)-avidity assay without evidence of antiretroviral use. We assessed factors associated with recent and long-term (≥12 months) HIV infection versus no infection using a multinomial logit model while accounting for complex survey design. Of 1,523 HIV-positive participants in 2018, 11 were classified as recent. Annual HIV incidence was 0.14% in 2018 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.057-0.23], representing 35,900 (95% CI 16,300-55,600) new infections per year in Kenya among persons aged 15-64 years. The percentage of HIV infections that were determined to be recent was similar in 2007 and 2012 but fell significantly from 2012 to 2018 [adjusted odds ratio (aOR) = 0.31, p < .001]. Compared to no HIV infection, being aged 25-34 versus 35-64 years (aOR = 4.2, 95% CI 1.4-13), having more lifetime sex partners (aOR = 5.2, 95% CI 1.6-17 for 2-3 partners and aOR = 8.6, 95% CI 2.8-26 for ≥4 partners vs. 0-1 partners), and never having tested for HIV (aOR = 4.1, 95% CI 1.5-11) were independently associated with recent HIV infection. Although HIV remains a public health priority in Kenya, HIV incidence estimates and trends in recent HIV infection support a significant decrease in new HIV infections from 2012 to 2018, a period of rapid expansion in HIV diagnosis, prevention, and treatment.

Factors associated with hospital length of stay in patients admitted with suspected malaria in Kenya: secondary analysis of a cross-sectional survey.

OBJECTIVES: To investigate factors associated with hospital length of stay (LOS) in patients admitted with suspected malaria using a competing risk approach. SETTING: County government referrals and major faith-based hospitals in Kenya in 2018. DESIGN: Secondary analysis of a cross-sectional survey data. PARTICIPANTS: Data were extracted from 2396 medical records of patients admitted with suspected malaria at 90 hospitals. OUTCOME MEASURES: LOS, defined as time to discharge, was the primary event of interest, and time to death was the competing event against patient factors assessed during admission and hospitalisation. RESULTS: Among the patients analysed, 2283 were discharged, 49 died and 64 were censored. The median LOS was 4 days (IQR: 3-6 days). The cumulative incidence of discharge significantly decreased (p<0.05) by 12.7% (subdistribution-HR (SDHR): 0.873; 95% CI 0.789 to 0.967) when the respiratory rate was assessed, by 14.1% (SDHR 0.859; 95% CI 0.754 to 0.978) when oxygen saturation was monitored, by 23.1% (SDHR 0.769; 95% CI 0.709 to 0.833) and 23.4% (SDHR 0.766; 95% CI 0.704 to 0.833) when haemoglobin/haematocrit and glucose/random blood sugar were performed, respectively, and by 30.4% (SDHR 0.696; 95% CI 0.626 to 0.774) when patients had at least one clinical feature of severe malaria. Conversely, patients with confirmed severe malaria and those treated with injectable artesunate had a significantly increased cumulative incidence of discharge by 21.4% (SDHR 1.214; 95% CI 1.082 to 1.362) and 33.9% (SDHR 1.339; 95% CI 1.184 to 1.515), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Factors of inpatient clinical processes that influence hospital LOS were identified. These can be targeted during quality improvement interventions to enhance health service delivery in Kenya. Early recognition and appropriate management of the signs of malaria severity could greatly affect beneficial outcomes. Strengthening clinical practices and nursing care according to national case management guidelines should be a priority for malaria control managers in Kenya.

Cross-sectional study to predict subnational levels of health workers' knowledge about severe malaria treatment in Kenya.

OBJECTIVES: This study applied a Bayesian hierarchical ecological spatial model beyond predictor analysis to test for the best fitting spatial effects model to predict subnational levels of health workers' knowledge of severe malaria treatment policy, artesunate dosing, and preparation. SETTING: County referral government and major faith-based hospitals across 47 counties in Kenya in 2019. DESIGN AND PARTICIPANTS: A secondary analysis of cross-sectional survey data from 345 health workers across 89 hospitals with inpatient departments who were randomly selected and interviewed. OUTCOME MEASURES: Three ordinal outcome variables for severe malaria treatment policy, artesunate dose and preparation were considered, while 12 individual and contextual predictors were included in the spatial models. RESULTS: A third of the health workers had high knowledge levels on artesunate treatment policy; almost three-quarters had high knowledge levels on artesunate dosing and preparation. The likelihood of having high knowledge on severe malaria treatment policy was lower among nurses relative to clinicians (adjusted OR (aOR)=0.48, 95% CI 0.25 to 0.87), health workers older than 30 years were 61% less likely to have high knowledge about dosing compared with younger health workers (aOR=0.39, 95% CI 0.22 to 0.67), while health workers exposed to artesunate posters had 2.4-fold higher odds of higher knowledge about dosing compared with non-exposed health workers (aOR=2.38, 95% CI 1.22 to 4.74). The best model fitted with spatially structured random effects and spatial variations of the knowledge level across the 47 counties exhibited neighbourhood influence. CONCLUSIONS: Knowledge of severe malaria treatment policies is not adequately and optimally available among health workers across Kenya. The factors associated with the health workers' level of knowledge were cadre, age and exposure to artesunate posters. The spatial maps provided subnational estimates of knowledge levels for focused interventions.

Epidemiological profile and clinico-pathological features of pediatric gynecological cancers at Moi Teaching & Referral Hospital, Kenya.

Background: The main pediatric (0-18 years) gynecologic cancers include stromal carcinomas (juvenile granulosa cell tumors and Sertoli-Leydig cell tumors), genital rhabdomyosarcomas and ovarian germ cell. Outcomes depend on time of diagnosis, stage, tumor type and treatment which can have long-term effects on the reproductive career of these patients. This study seeks to analyze the trends in clinical-pathologic presentation, treatment and outcomes in the cases seen at our facility. This is the first paper identifying these cancers published from sub-Saharan Africa. Method: Retrospective review of clinico-pathologic profiles and treatment outcomes of pediatric gynecologic oncology patients managed at MTRH between 2010 and 2020. Data was abstracted from gynecologic oncology database and medical charts. Results: Records of 40 patients were analyzed. Most, (92.5%, 37/40) of the patients were between 10 and 18 years. Ovarian germ cell tumors were the leading histological diagnosis in 72.5% (29/40) of the patients; with dysgerminomas being the commonest subtype seen in 12 of the 37 patients (32.4%). The patients received platinum-based chemotherapy in 70% of cases (28/40). There were 14 deaths among the 40 patients (35%). Conclusion: Surgery remains the main stay of treatment and fertility-sparing surgery with or without adjuvant platinum-based chemotherapy are the standard of care with excellent prognosis following early detection and treatment initiation. LMICs face several challenges in access to quality care and that affects survival of these patients. Due to its commonality, ovarian germ cell cancers warrant a high index of suspicion amongst primary care providers attending to adnexal masses in this age group.