Diversification of refugia types needed to secure the future of coral reefs subject to climate change.

Identifying locations of refugia from the thermal stresses of climate change for coral reefs and better managing them is one of the key recommendations for climate change adaptation. We review and summarize approximately 30 years of applied research focused on identifying climate refugia to prioritize the conservation actions for coral reefs under rapid climate change. We found that currently proposed climate refugia and the locations predicted to avoid future coral losses are highly reliant on  excess heat metrics, such as degree heating weeks. However, many existing alternative environmental, ecological, and life-history variables could be used to identify other types of refugia that lead to the desired diversified portfolio for coral reef conservation. To improve conservation priorities for coral reefs, there is a need to evaluate and validate the predictions of climate refugia with long-term field data on coral abundance, diversity, and functioning. There is also the need to identify and safeguard locations displaying resistance toprolonged exposure to heat waves and the ability to recover quickly after thermal exposure. We recommend using more metrics to identify a portfolio of potential refugia sites for coral reefs that can avoid, resist, and recover from exposure to high ocean temperatures and the consequences of climate change, thereby shifting past efforts focused on avoidance to a diversified risk-spreading portfolio that can be used to improve strategic coral reef conservation in a rapidly warming climate.

Diversificación de los tipos de refugio necesarios para asegurar el futuro de los arrecifes de coral sujetos al cambio climático Resumen Una de las principales recomendaciones para la adaptación al cambio climático es identificar los refugios de los arrecifes de coral frente al estrés térmico del cambio climático y mejorar su gestión. Revisamos y resumimos ∼30 años de investigación aplicada centrada en la identificación de refugios climáticos para priorizar las acciones de conservación de los arrecifes de coral bajo un rápido cambio climático. Descubrimos que los refugios climáticos propuestos actualmente y las ubicaciones que pueden evitarlos dependen en gran medida de métricas de exceso de calor, como las semanas de calentamiento en grados (SCG). Sin embargo, existen muchas variables alternativas de historia vital, ambientales y ecológicas que podrían utilizarse para identificar otros tipos de refugios que resulten en el acervo diversificado que se desea para la conservación de los arrecifes de coral. Para mejorar las prioridades de conservación de los arrecifes de coral, es necesario evaluar y validar las predicciones sobre refugios climáticos con datos de campo a largo plazo sobre abundancia, diversidad y funcionamiento de los corales. También es necesario identificar y salvaguardar lugares que muestren resistencia a la exposición climática prolongada a olas de calor y la capacidad de recuperarse rápidamente tras la exposición térmica. Recomendamos utilizar más métricas para identificar un acervo de posibles lugares de refugio para los arrecifes de coral que puedan evitar, resistir y recuperarse de la exposición a las altas temperaturas oceánicas y las consecuencias del cambio climático, para así desplazar los esfuerzos pasados centrados en la evitación hacia un acervo diversificado de riesgos que pueda utilizarse para mejorar la conservación estratégica de los arrecifes de coral en un clima que se calienta rápidamente.

Trophic distribution of nutrient production in coral reef fisheries.

Coral reef fisheries supply nutritious catch to tropical coastal communities, where the quality of reef seafood is determined by both the rate of biomass production and nutritional value of reef fishes. Yet our understanding of reef fisheries typically uses targets of total reef fish biomass rather than individual growth (i.e. biomass production) and nutrient content (i.e. nutritional value of reef fish), limiting the ability of management to sustain the productivity of nutritious catches. Here, we use modelled growth coefficients and nutrient concentrations to develop a new metric of nutrient productivity of coral reef fishes. We then evaluate this metric with underwater visual surveys of reef fish assemblages from four tropical countries to examine nutrient productivity of reef fish food webs. Species' growth coefficients were associated with nutrients that vary with body size (calcium, iron, selenium and zinc), but not total nutrient density. When integrated with fish abundance data, we find that herbivorous species typically dominate standing biomass, biomass turnover and nutrient production on coral reefs. Such bottom-heavy trophic distributions of nutrients were consistent across gradients of fishing pressure and benthic composition. We conclude that management restrictions that promote sustainability of herbivores and other low trophic-level species can sustain biomass and nutrient production from reef fisheries that is critical to the food security of over 500 million people in the tropics.

Effects of management objectives and rules on marine conservation outcomes.

Understanding the relative effectiveness and enabling conditions of different area-based management tools is essential for supporting efforts that achieve positive biodiversity outcomes as area-based conservation coverage increases to meet newly set international targets. We used data from a coastal social-ecological monitoring program in 6 Indo-Pacific countries to analyze whether social, ecological, and economic objectives and specific management rules (temporal closures, fishing gear-specific, species-specific restrictions) were associated with coral reef fish biomass above sustainable yield levels across different types of area-based management tools (i.e., comparing those designated as marine protected areas [MPAs] with other types of area-based management). All categories of objectives, multiple combinations of rules, and all types of area-based management had some sites that were able to sustain high levels of reef fish biomass-a key measure for coral reef functioning-compared with reference sites with no area-based management. Yet, the same management types also had sites with low biomass. As governments advance their commitments to the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework and the target to conserve 30% of the planet's land and oceans by 2030, we found that although different types of management can be effective, most of the managed areas in our study regions did not meet criteria for effectiveness. These findings underscore the importance of strong management and governance of managed areas and the need to measure the ecological impact of area-based management rather than counting areas because of their designation.

Efectos de las reglas y objetivos de manejo sobre los resultados de conservación marina Resumen Es esencial entender la efectividad relativa y las condiciones habilitantes de las diferentes herramientas de manejo basadas en el área para respaldar los esfuerzos que brindan resultados positivos para la biodiversidad conforme aumenta la cobertura de la conservación basada en el área para alcanzar los objetivos internacionales recién establecidos. Usamos los datos de un programa de monitoreo socioeconómico costero en seis países del Indo-Pacífico para analizar si los objetivos sociales, ecológicos y económicos y las reglas específicas de manejo (cierres temporales, restricciones de equipo de pesca, vedas de especies) se asociaban con la biomasa de los peces de arrecife de coral por encima de los niveles de producción sustentable en diferentes tipos de herramientas de manejo basadas en el área (es decir, comparar aquellas designadas como áreas marinas protegidas[AMP] con otros tipos de manejo basado en el área). Todas las categorías de objetivos, las múltiples combinaciones de reglas y todos los tipos de manejo basado en el área tuvieron algunos sitios capaces de mantener los niveles altos de biomasa de peces de arrecife-una medida importante para el funcionamiento de los arrecifes-en comparación con los sitios de referencia sin manejo basado en el área. Sin embargo, los mismos tipos de manejo también tuvieron sitios con baja biomasa. Conforme los gobiernos avanzan en sus compromisos con el Marco Global de Biodiversidad de Kunming-Montreal y hacia el objetivo de conservar el 30% del suelo y los océanos del planeta para el 2030, descubrimos que, aunque diferentes tipos de manejo pueden ser efectivos, la mayoría de las áreas manejadas en nuestras regiones de estudio no cumplieron con los criterios de efectividad. Este descubrimiento enfatiza la importancia de una gestión y un gobierno sólidos de las áreas manejadas y la necesidad de medir el impacto ecológico del manejo basado en el área en lugar de contar las áreas por su designación.

Linking small-scale fisheries co-management to U.N. Sustainable Development Goals.

Small-scale fisheries account for 90% of global fishers and 40% of the global catch. Effectively managing small-scale fisheries is, therefore, crucial to progressing the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Co-management and community-based fisheries management are widely considered the most appropriate forms of governance for many small-scale fisheries. We outlined relationships between small-scale fisheries co-management and attainment of the SDGs, including evidence for impacts and gaps in dominant logic. We identified 11 targets across five SDGs to which small-scale fisheries co-management (including community-based fisheries management) can contribute; the theory of change by which these contributions could be achieved; and the strength of evidence for progress toward SDG targets related to various co-management strategies. Our theory of change links the 11 SDG targets by qualifying that progress toward some targets is contingent on others being achieved first. We then reviewed 58 case studies of co-management impacts from the Pacific Islands--a region rich in local marine governance--to evaluate evidence of where, to what degree, and with how much certainty different co-management strategies conferred positive impacts to each SDG target. These strategies included access restrictions, permanent area closures, periodic closures, and gear and species restrictions. Although many studies provide evidence linking multiple co-management strategies to improvements in resource status (SDG 14.4), there was limited evidence of follow-on effects, such as improvements in catch (SDG 2.3, 2.4), livelihoods (SDG 1.2), consumption (SDG 2.1), and nutrition (SDG 2.2). Our findings suggest that leaps of logic and assumptions are prevalent in co-management planning and evaluation. Hence, when evaluating co-management impacts against the SDGs, consideration of ultimate goals is required, otherwise, there is a risk of shortfalls between aspirations and impact.

Las pequeñas pesquerías representan el 90% de los pescadores y el 40% de la pesca a nivel mundial. Por lo tanto, su manejo efectivo es crucial para el avance de los Objetivos de Desarrollo Sustentable de las Naciones Unidas (ODS). Generalmente se considera a la coadministración y la administración comunitaria de las pesquerías como las maneras más apropiadas para gestionar las pequeñas pesquerías. Perfilamos las relaciones entre la coadministración de estas pesquerías y la obtención de los ODS, incluida la evidencia de impactos y vacíos en la lógica dominante. Identificamos once metas en cinco ODS a las cuales puede contribuir la coadministración de las pequeñas pesquerías (incluyendo la administración comunitaria de las pesquerías); la teoría de cambio mediante la cual pueden lograrse estas contribuciones; y la solidez de la evidencia relacionada con varias estrategias de coadministración para el progreso hacia las metas de los ODS. Nuestra teoría de cambio conecta a las once metas de los ODS al calificar que el progreso hacia algunas metas está supeditado a que primero se logren otras metas. Después revisamos 58 estudios de caso del impacto de la coadministración en las islas del Pacífico - una región rica en gestión marina local - para evaluar la evidencia de dónde, a cuál grado y con cuánta certeza las diferentes estrategias de coadministración otorgaron impactos positivos a cada meta de los ODS. Estas estrategias incluyen restricciones de acceso, cierres permanentes del área, cierres periódicos y restricciones de equipamiento y especies. Mientras que muchos estudios proporcionaron evidencia que conecta a varias estrategias de coadministración con mejoras en el estado de los recursos (ODS 14.4), hubo pruebas limitadas de los efectos de seguimiento, como mejoras en la captura (ODS 2.3, 2.4), la subsistencia (ODS 1.2), el consumo (ODS 2.1) y la nutrición (ODS 2.2). Nuestros descubrimientos sugieren que los saltos de lógica y de suposición prevalecen en la planeación y evaluación de la coadministración.

Place-based management can reduce human impacts on coral reefs in a changing climate.

Declining natural resources have contributed to a cultural renaissance across the Pacific that seeks to revive customary ridge-to-reef management approaches to protect freshwater and restore abundant coral reef fisheries. We applied a linked land-sea modeling framework based on remote sensing and empirical data, which couples groundwater nutrient export and coral reef models at fine spatial resolution. This spatially explicit (60 × 60 m) framework simultaneously tracks changes in multiple benthic and fish indicators as a function of community-led marine closures, land-use and climate change scenarios. We applied this framework in Ha'ena and Ka'upulehu, located at opposite ends of the Hawaiian Archipelago to investigate the effects of coastal development and marine closures on coral reefs in the face of climate change. Our results indicated that projected coastal development and bleaching can result in a significant decrease in benthic habitat quality and community-led marine closures can result in a significant increase in fish biomass. In general, Ka'upulehu is more vulnerable to land-based nutrients and coral bleaching than Ha'ena due to high coral cover and limited dilution and mixing from low rainfall and wave power, except for the shallow and wave-sheltered back-reef areas of Ha'ena, which support high coral cover and act as nursery habitat for fishes. By coupling spatially explicit land-sea models with scenario planning, we identified priority areas on land where upgrading cesspools can reduce human impacts on coral reefs in the face of projected climate change impacts.

Fish wariness is a more sensitive indicator to changes in fishing pressure than abundance, length or biomass.

Identifying the most sensitive indicators to changes in fishing pressure is important for accurately detecting impacts. Biomass is thought to be more sensitive than abundance and length, while the wariness of fishes is emerging as a new metric. Periodically harvested closures (PHCs) that involve the opening and closing of an area to fishing are the most common form of fisheries management in the western Pacific. The opening of PHCs to fishing provides a unique opportunity to compare the sensitivity of metrics, such as abundance, length, biomass and wariness, to changes in fishing pressure. Diver-operated stereo video (stereo-DOV) provides data on fish behavior (using a proxy for wariness, minimum approach distance) simultaneous to abundance and length estimates. We assessed the impact of PHC protection and harvesting on the abundance, length, biomass, and wariness of target species using stereo-DOVs. This allowed a comparison of the sensitivity of these metrics to changes in fishing pressure across four PHCs in Fiji, where spearfishing and fish drives are common. Before PHCs were opened to fishing they consistently decreased the wariness of targeted species but were less likely to increase abundance, length, or biomass. Pulse harvesting of PHCs resulted in a rapid increase in the wariness of fishes but inconsistent impacts across the other metrics. Our results suggest that fish wariness is the most sensitive indicator of fishing pressure, followed by biomass, length, and abundance. The collection of behavioral data simultaneously with abundance, length, and biomass estimates using stereo-DOVs offers a cost-effective indicator of protection or rapid increases in fishing pressure. Stereo-DOVs can rapidly provide large amounts of behavioral data from monitoring programs historically focused on estimating abundance and length of fishes, which is not feasible with visual methods.

Trade-offs between data resolution, accuracy, and cost when choosing information to plan reserves for coral reef ecosystems.

Conservation planners must reconcile trade-offs associated with using biodiversity data of differing qualities to make decisions. Coarse habitat classifications are commonly used as surrogates to design marine reserve networks when fine-scale biodiversity data are incomplete or unavailable. Although finely-classified habitat maps provide more detail, they may have more misclassification errors, a common problem when remotely-sensed imagery is used. Despite these issues, planners rarely consider the effects of errors when choosing data for spatially explicit conservation prioritizations. Here we evaluate trade-offs between accuracy and resolution of hierarchical coral reef habitat data (geomorphology and benthic substrate) derived from remote sensing, in spatial planning for Kubulau District, Fiji. For both, we use accuracy information describing the probability that a mapped habitat classification is correct to design marine reserve networks that achieve habitat conservation targets, and demonstrate inadequacies of using habitat maps without accuracy data. We show that using more detailed habitat information ensures better representation of biogenic habitats (i.e. coral and seagrass), but leads to larger and more costly reserves, because these data have more misclassification errors, and are also more expensive to obtain. Reduced impacts on fishers are possible using coarsely-classified data, which are also more cost-effective for planning reserves if we account for data collection costs, but using these data may under-represent reef habitats that are important for fisheries and biodiversity, due to the maps low thematic resolution. Finally, we show that explicitly accounting for accuracy information in decisions maximizes the chance of successful conservation outcomes by reducing the risk of missing conservation representation targets, particularly when using finely classified data.

A spatial framework for improved sanitation to support coral reef conservation.

Coral reefs are one of the most valuable yet threatened ecosystems in the world. Improving human wastewater treatment could reduce land-based impacts on coral reefs. However, information on the quantity and spatial distribution of human wastewater pollution is lacking. Here, we develop a spatial model linking residential human wastewater pollution (nitrogen and phosphorus/year) and conservation sectors [coral reefs] to better understand the relative differences in the distribution and efficacy of different sanitation services and their potential implications for conservation monitoring and management. We apply our model to Fiji, where ongoing initiatives and investments in wastewater treatment for human health could be leveraged to cost-effectively improve coral reef condition. We estimate that wastewater treatment plants account for nearly 80% of human wastewater nutrients released into surface waters. Wasterwater nutrient pollution is widespread, affecting 95% of reefs, but is concentrated across a few watersheds. Our spatially explicit approach can be used to better understand potential benefits and trade-offs between sanitation service improvements and coral reef health, helping to bridge the sanitation and conservation sectors as well as inform and prioritize on the ground action.

Adaptive comanagement of a marine protected area network in Fiji.

Adaptive management of natural resources is an iterative process of decision making whereby management strategies are progressively changed or adjusted in response to new information. Despite an increasing focus on the need for adaptive conservation strategies, there remain few applied examples. We describe the 9-year process of adaptive comanagement of a marine protected area network in Kubulau District, Fiji. In 2011, a review of protected area boundaries and management rules was motivated by the need to enhance management effectiveness and the desire to improve resilience to climate change. Through a series of consultations, with the Wildlife Conservation Society providing scientific input to community decision making, the network of marine protected areas was reconfigured so as to maximize resilience and compliance. Factors identified as contributing to this outcome include well-defined resource-access rights; community respect for a flexible system of customary governance; long-term commitment and presence of comanagement partners; supportive policy environment for comanagement; synthesis of traditional management approaches with systematic monitoring; and district-wide coordination, which provided a broader spatial context for adaptive-management decision making. Co-Manejo Adaptativo de una Red de Áreas Marinas Protegidas en Fiyi.

Forest conservation delivers highly variable coral reef conservation outcomes.

Coral reefs are threatened by human activities on both the land (e.g., deforestation) and the sea (e.g., overfishing). Most conservation planning for coral reefs focuses on removing threats in the sea, neglecting management actions on the land. A more integrated approach to coral reef conservation, inclusive of land-sea connections, requires an understanding of how and where terrestrial conservation actions influence reefs. We address this by developing a land-sea planning approach to inform fine-scale spatial management decisions and test it in Fiji. Our aim is to determine where the protection of forest can deliver the greatest return on investment for coral reef ecosystems. To assess the benefits of conservation to coral reefs, we estimate their relative condition as influenced by watershed-based pollution and fishing. We calculate the cost-effectiveness of protecting forest and find that investments deliver rapidly diminishing returns for improvements to relative reef condition. For example, protecting 2% of forest in one area is almost 500 times more beneficial than protecting 2% in another area, making prioritization essential. For the scenarios evaluated, relative coral reef condition could be improved by 8-58% if all remnant forest in Fiji were protected rather than deforested. Finally, we determine the priority of each coral reef for implementing a marine protected area when all remnant forest is protected for conservation. The general results will support decisions made by the Fiji Protected Area Committee as they establish a national protected area network that aims to protect 20% of the land and 30% of the inshore waters by 2020. Although challenges remain, we can inform conservation decisions around the globe by tackling the complex issues relevant to integrated land-sea planning.

Incorporating effectiveness of community-based management in a national marine gap analysis for Fiji.

Every action in a conservation plan has a different level of effect and consequently contributes differentially to conservation. We examined how several community-based, marine, management actions differed in their contribution to national-level conservation goals in Fiji. We held a workshop with experts on local fauna and flora and local marine management actions to translate conservation goals developed by the national government into ecosystem-specific quantitative objectives and to estimate the relative effectiveness of Fiji's community-based management actions in achieving these objectives. The national conservation objectives were to effectively manage 30% of the nation's fringing reefs, nonfringing reefs, mangroves, and intertidal ecosystems (30% objective) and 10% of other benthic ecosystems (10% objective). The experts evaluated the contribution of the various management actions toward national objectives. Scores ranged from 0 (ineffective) to 1 (maximum effectiveness) and included the following management actions: permanent closures (i.e., all extractive use of resources prohibited indefinitely) (score of 1); conditional closures harvested once per year or less as dictated by a management plan (0.50-0.95); conditional closures harvested without predetermined frequency or duration (0.10-0.85); other management actions, such as regulations on gear and species harvested (0.15-0.50). Through 3 gap analyses, we assessed whether the conservation objectives in Fiji had been achieved. Each analysis was based on a different assumption: (1) all parts of locally managed marine areas (including closures and other management) conserve species and ecosystems effectively; (2) closures conserve species and ecosystems, whereas areas outside closures, open to varying levels of resource extraction, do not; and (3) actions that allow different levels of resource extraction vary in their ability to conserve species and ecosystems. Under assumption 1, Fiji's national conservation objectives were exceeded in all marine ecosystems; under assumption 2, none of Fiji's conservation objectives were met; and under assumption 3, on the basis of the scores assigned by experts, Fiji achieved the 10% but not the 30% objectives for ecosystems. Understanding the relative contribution of management actions to achieving conservation objectives is critical in the assessment of conservation achievements at the national level, where multiple management actions will be needed to achieve national conservation objectives.

Resumen: Cada acción en un plan de conservación tiene un diferente nivel de efecto y, en consecuencia, contribuye diferencialmente a la conservación. Examinamos la manera en que varias acciones de manejo basadas en comunidades difirieron en su contribución a las metas de conservación a nivel nacional en Fiji. Realizamos un taller con expertos en fauna y flora local y en acciones de manejo marino para traducir las metas de conservación desarrolladas por el gobierno nacional en objetivos cuantitativos específicos para cada ecosistema y para estimar la efectividad relativa de las acciones de manejo basadas en comunidades para alcanzar estos objetivos. Los objetivos de conservación nacionales eran manejar efectivamente 30% de los arrecifes, manglares y ecosistemas intermareas (objetivo 30%) y 10% de otros ecosistemas bénticos (objetivo 10%). Los expertos evaluaron la contribución de las acciones de manejo en relación con los objetivos nacionales. Los valores variaron de 0 (inefectivo) a 1 (efectividad máxima) e incluyeron las siguientes acciones manejo: cierres permanentes (i.e., prohibición indefinida de todos los usos extractivos de recursos) (valor de 1); cierres condicionados cosechados una vez por año o menos según lo establecido por un plan de manejo (0.50-0.95); cierres condicionados cosechados sin frecuencia o duración predeterminados (0.10-0.85); otras acciones de manejo, como regulaciones de equipo y especies cosechadas (0.15-0.50). Mediante 3 análisis de vacíos, evaluamos si se alcanzaron los objetivos de conservación en Fiji. Cada análisis se basó en un supuesto diferente: (1) todas las zonas de áreas marinas manejadas localmente (incluyendo cierres y otras acciones) conservan especies y ecosistemas efectivamente; (2) los cierres conservan especies y ecosistemas, mientras que las áreas fuera de los cierres, abiertas a diferentes niveles de extracción de recursos, no conservan; y (3) las acciones que permiten diferentes niveles de extracción de recursos varían en su capacidad para conservar especies y ecosistemas. Bajo el supuesto 1, se excedieron los objetivos nacionales de conservación en Fiji en todos los ecosistemas marinos; bajo el supuesto 2, no se alcanzó ninguno de los objetivos de Fiji; y bajo el supuesto 3, con base en los valores asignados por los expertos, Fiji alcanzó el 10%, no el 30%, de los objetivos para los ecosistemas. La comprensión de la contribución relativa de las acciones de conservación en el logro de los objetivos de conservación es crítica para la evaluación de los alcances de la conservación a nivel nacional, en el que se requerirán múltiples acciones de manejo para alcanzar los objetivos de conservación.

Linking isotopic signatures of nitrogen in nearshore coral skeletons with sources in catchment runoff.

We use a multi-tracer approach to identify catchment sources of nitrogen (N) in the skeletons of nearshore Porites corals within the Great Barrier Reef. We measured δ15N, δ13C and C:N ratios of particulate organic matter (POM) sampled from the Pioneer River catchment and identified five distinct end-members: (1) marine planktonic and algal-dominated matter with higher δ15N values from the river mouth and coastal waters; (2) estuarine planktonic and algal matter with lower δ15N values associated with estuarine mixing; (3) lower river freshwater phytoplankton and algal-dominated matter in stratified reservoirs adjacent to catchment weirs, with the 15N-enriched source likely caused by microbial remineralization and denitrification; (4) upper river low δ15N terrigenous soil matter eroded from cane fields bordering waterways; and (5) terrestrial plant detrital matter in forest streams, representing a low δ15N fixed atmospheric nitrogen source. The δ15N values of adjacent, nearshore Porites coral skeletons is reflective of POM composition in coastal waters, with 15N-enriched values reflective of transformed N during flood pulses from the Pioneer River.

Environmental Foundations of Typhoid Fever in the Fijian Residential Setting.

Proximal characteristics and conditions in the residential setting deserve greater attention for their potential to influence typhoid transmission. Using a case-control design in Central Division, Republic of Fiji, we examined bacterial (coliform and Escherichia coli) contamination and chemical composition of water and soil as potential vehicles of exposure to Salmonella Typhi, combining observational analysis of residential living conditions, geospatial analysis of household locations, and factor analysis to explore multivariate associations with the risk of developing typhoid fever. Factors positively associated with typhoid infection related to drainage [phosphate (OR 4.235, p = 0.042) and E. coli concentrations (OR 2.248, p = 0.029) in toilet drainage soil, housing [external condition (OR 3.712, p < 0.001)], drinking water contamination (OR 2.732, p = 0.003) and sanitary condition (OR 1.973, p = 0.031). These five factors explained 42.5% of the cumulative variance and were significant in predicting typhoid infection. Our results support the hypothesis that a combination of spatial and biophysical attributes of the residential setting influence the probability of typhoid transmission; in this study, factors associated with poor drainage, flooding, and sanitary condition increase local exposure to contaminated water and soil, and thereby infection. These findings extend testing of causal assumptions beyond the immediate domestic domain, enhance the scope of traditional case control epidemiology and allow greater specificity of interventions at the scale of the residential setting.

Transmission of human-associated microbiota along family and social networks.

The human microbiome, described as an accessory organ because of the crucial functions it provides, is composed of species that are uniquely found in humans1,2. Yet, surprisingly little is known about the impact of routine interpersonal contacts in shaping microbiome composition. In a relatively 'closed' cohort of 287 people from the Fiji Islands, where common barriers to bacterial transmission are absent, we examine putative bacterial transmission in individuals' gut and oral microbiomes using strain-level data from both core single-nucleotide polymorphisms and flexible genomic regions. We find a weak signal of transmission, defined by the inferred sharing of genotypes, across many organisms that, in aggregate, reveals strong transmission patterns, most notably within households and between spouses. We were unable to determine the directionality of transmission nor whether it was direct. We further find that women harbour strains more closely related to those harboured by their familial and social contacts than men, and that transmission patterns of oral-associated and gut-associated microbiota need not be the same. Using strain-level data alone, we are able to confidently predict a subset of spouses, highlighting the role of shared susceptibilities, behaviours or social interactions that distinguish specific links in the social network.

Social-environmental drivers inform strategic management of coral reefs in the Anthropocene.

Without drastic efforts to reduce carbon emissions and mitigate globalized stressors, tropical coral reefs are in jeopardy. Strategic conservation and management requires identification of the environmental and socioeconomic factors driving the persistence of scleractinian coral assemblages-the foundation species of coral reef ecosystems. Here, we compiled coral abundance data from 2,584 Indo-Pacific reefs to evaluate the influence of 21 climate, social and environmental drivers on the ecology of reef coral assemblages. Higher abundances of framework-building corals were typically associated with: weaker thermal disturbances and longer intervals for potential recovery; slower human population growth; reduced access by human settlements and markets; and less nearby agriculture. We therefore propose a framework of three management strategies (protect, recover or transform) by considering: (1) if reefs were above or below a proposed threshold of >10% cover of the coral taxa important for structural complexity and carbonate production; and (2) reef exposure to severe thermal stress during the 2014-2017 global coral bleaching event. Our findings can guide urgent management efforts for coral reefs, by identifying key threats across multiple scales and strategic policy priorities that might sustain a network of functioning reefs in the Indo-Pacific to avoid ecosystem collapse.

Drivers of reef shark abundance and biomass in the Solomon Islands.

Remote island nations face a number of challenges in addressing concerns about shark population status, including access to rigorously collected data and resources to manage fisheries. At present, very little data are available on shark populations in the Solomon Islands and scientific surveys to document shark and ray diversity and distribution have not been completed. We aimed to provide a baseline of the relative abundance and diversity of reef sharks and rays and assess the major drivers of reef shark abundance/biomass in the Western Province of the Solomon Islands using stereo baited remote underwater video. On average reef sharks were more abundant than in surrounding countries such as Fiji and Indonesia, yet below that of remote islands without historical fishing pressure, suggesting populations are relatively healthy but not pristine. We also assessed the influence of location, habitat type/complexity, depth and prey biomass on reef shark abundance and biomass. Location was the most important factor driving reef shark abundance and biomass with two times the abundance and a 43% greater biomass of reef sharks in the more remote locations, suggesting fishing may be impacting sharks in some areas. Our results give a much needed baseline and suggest that reef shark populations are still relatively unexploited, providing an opportunity for improved management of sharks and rays in the Solomon Islands.

Epidemiology and risk factors for typhoid fever in Central Division, Fiji, 2014-2017: A case-control study.

BACKGROUND: Typhoid fever is endemic in Fiji, with high reported annual incidence. We sought to identify the sources and modes of transmission of typhoid fever in Fiji with the aim to inform disease control. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We identified and surveyed patients with blood culture-confirmed typhoid fever from January 2014 through January 2017. For each typhoid fever case we matched two controls by age interval, gender, ethnicity, and residential area. Univariable and multivariable analysis were used to evaluate associations between exposures and risk for typhoid fever. We enrolled 175 patients with typhoid fever and 349 controls. Of the cases, the median (range) age was 29 (2-67) years, 86 (49%) were male, and 84 (48%) lived in a rural area. On multivariable analysis, interrupted water availability (odds ratio [OR] = 2.17; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.18-4.00), drinking surface water in the last 2 weeks (OR = 3.61; 95% CI 1.44-9.06), eating unwashed produce (OR = 2.69; 95% CI 1.48-4.91), and having an unimproved or damaged sanitation facility (OR = 4.30; 95% CI 1.14-16.21) were significantly associated with typhoid fever. Frequent handwashing after defecating (OR = 0.57; 95% CI 0.35-0.93) and using soap for handwashing (OR = 0.61; 95% CI 0.37-0.95) were independently associated with a lower odds of typhoid fever. CONCLUSIONS: Poor sanitation facilities appear to be a major source of Salmonella Typhi in Fiji, with transmission by drinking contaminated surface water and consuming unwashed produce. Improved sanitation facilities and protection of surface water sources and produce from contamination by human feces are likely to contribute to typhoid control in Fiji.