Integrating carbon sequestration and biodiversity impacts in forested ecosystems: Concepts, cases, and policies.

The challenges posed by climate change, biodiversity loss, and land-use are deeply interconnected and integrated solutions are needed. This paper presents results from 11 contributions to a special issue covering topics of integrated modeling and spatial prioritization, mass-balance studies, Earth Observation techniques, research infrastructure developments, and evaluation of policy measures and economic compensation schemes. The spatial scale of the studies ranges from detailed site-specific to a European scale. This paper briefly summarizes the main findings of these studies, makes some general overall conclusions, and identifies topics for further research and methods developments.

Role of land cover in Finland's greenhouse gas emissions.

We present regionally aggregated emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG) from five land cover categories in Finland: artificial surfaces, arable land, forest, waterbodies, and wetlands. Carbon (C) sequestration to managed forests and unmanaged wetlands was also assessed. Models FRES and ALas were applied for emissions (CO2, CH4, N2O) from artificial surfaces and agriculture, and PREBAS for forest growth and C balance. Empirical emission coefficients were used to estimate emissions from drained forested peatland (CH4, N2O), cropland (CO2), waterbodies (CH4, CO2), peat production sites and undrained mires (CH4, CO2, N2O). We calculated gross emissions of 147.2 ± 6.8 TgCO2eq yr-1 for 18 administrative units covering mainland Finland, using data representative of the period 2017-2025. Emissions from energy production, industrial processes, road traffic and other sources in artificial surfaces amounted to 45.7 ± 2.0 TgCO2eq yr-1. The loss of C in forest harvesting was the largest emission source in the LULUCF sector, in total 59.8 ± 3.3 TgCO2eq yr-1. Emissions from domestic livestock production, field cultivation and organic soils added up to 12.2 ± 3.5 TgCO2eq yr-1 from arable land. Rivers and lakes (13.4 ± 1.9 TgCO2eq yr-1) as well as undrained mires and peat production sites (14.7 ± 1.8 TgCO2eq yr-1) increased the total GHG fluxes. The C sequestration from the atmosphere was 93.2 ± 13.7 TgCO2eq yr-1. with the main sink in forest on mineral soil (79.9 ± 12.2 TgCO2eq yr-1). All sinks compensated 63% of total emissions and thus the net emissions were 53.9 ± 15.3 TgCO2eq yr-1, or a net GHG flux per capita of 9.8 MgCO2eq yr-1.

Leveraging research infrastructure co-location to evaluate constraints on terrestrial carbon cycling in northern European forests.

Integrated long-term, in-situ observations are needed to document ongoing environmental change, to "ground-truth" remote sensing and model outputs and to predict future Earth system behaviour. The scientific and societal value of in-situ observations increases with site representativeness, temporal duration, number of parameters measured and comparability within and across sites. Research Infrastructures (RIs) can support harmonised, cross-site data collection, curation and publication. Integrating RI networks through site co-location and standardised observation methods can help answers three questions about the terrestrial carbon sink: (i) What are present and future carbon sequestration rates in northern European forests? (ii) How are these rates controlled? (iii) Why do the observed patterns exist? Here, we present a conceptual model for RI co-location and highlight potential insights into the terrestrial carbon sink achievable when long-term in-situ Earth observation sites participate in multiple RI networks (e.g., ICOS and eLTER). Finally, we offer recommendations to promote RI co-location.

Effect of forest management choices on carbon sequestration and biodiversity at national scale.

Forest management methods and harvest intensities influence wood production, carbon sequestration and biodiversity. We devised different management scenarios by means of stakeholder analysis and incorporated them in the forest growth simulator PREBAS. To analyse impacts of harvest intensity, we used constraints on total harvest: business as usual, low harvest, intensive harvest and no harvest. We carried out simulations on a wall-to-wall grid in Finland until 2050. Our objectives were to (1) test how the management scenarios differed in their projections, (2) analyse the potential wood production, carbon sequestration and biodiversity under the different harvest levels, and (3) compare different options of allocating the scenarios and protected areas. Harvest level was key to carbon stocks and fluxes regardless of management actions and moderate changes in proportion of strictly protected forest. In contrast, biodiversity was more dependent on other management variables than harvesting levels, and relatively independent of carbon stocks and fluxes.

Quantification of forest carbon flux and stock uncertainties under climate change and their use in regionally explicit decision making: Case study in Finland.

Uncertainties are essential, yet often neglected, information for evaluating the reliability in forest carbon balance projections used in national and regional policy planning. We analysed uncertainties in the forest net biome exchange (NBE) and carbon stocks under multiple management and climate scenarios with a process-based ecosystem model. Sampled forest initial state values, model parameters, harvest levels and global climate models (GCMs) served as inputs in Monte Carlo simulations, which covered forests of the 18 regions of mainland Finland over the period 2015-2050. Under individual scenarios, the results revealed time- and region-dependent variability in the magnitude of uncertainty and mean values of the NBE projections. The main sources of uncertainty varied with time, by region and by the amount of harvested wood. Combinations of uncertainties in the representative concentration pathways scenarios, GCMs, forest initial values and model parameters were the main sources of uncertainty at the beginning, while the harvest scenarios dominated by the end of the simulation period, combined with GCMs and climate scenarios especially in the north. Our regionally explicit uncertainty analysis was found a useful approach to reveal the variability in the regional potentials to reach a policy related, future target level of NBE, which is important information when planning realistic and regionally fair national policy actions.

Modelling the regional potential for reaching carbon neutrality in Finland: Sustainable forestry, energy use and biodiversity protection.

The EU aims at reaching carbon neutrality by 2050 and Finland by 2035. We integrated results of three spatially distributed model systems (FRES, PREBAS, Zonation) to evaluate the potential to reach this goal at both national and regional scale in Finland, by simultaneously considering protection targets of the EU biodiversity (BD) strategy. Modelling of both anthropogenic emissions and forestry measures were carried out, and forested areas important for BD protection were identified based on spatial prioritization. We used scenarios until 2050 based on mitigation measures of the national climate and energy strategy, forestry policies and predicted climate change, and evaluated how implementation of these scenarios would affect greenhouse gas fluxes, carbon storages, and the possibility to reach the carbon neutrality target. Potential new forested areas for BD protection according to the EU 10% protection target provided a significant carbon storage (426-452 TgC) and sequestration potential (- 12 to - 17.5 TgCO2eq a-1) by 2050, indicating complementarity of emission mitigation and conservation measures. The results of the study can be utilized for integrating climate and BD policies, accounting of ecosystem services for climate regulation, and delimitation of areas for conservation.

Sources and sinks of greenhouse gases in the landscape: Approach for spatially explicit estimates.

Climate change mitigation is a global response that requires actions at the local level. Quantifying local sources and sinks of greenhouse gases (GHG) facilitate evaluating mitigation options. We present an approach to collate spatially explicit estimated fluxes of GHGs (carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide) for main land use sectors in the landscape, to aggregate, and to calculate the net emissions of an entire region. Our procedure was developed and tested in a large river basin in Finland, providing information from intensively studied eLTER research sites. To evaluate the full GHG balance, fluxes from natural ecosystems (lakes, rivers, and undrained mires) were included together with fluxes from anthropogenic activities, agriculture and forestry. We quantified the fluxes based on calculations with an anthropogenic emissions model (FRES) and a forest growth and carbon balance model (PREBAS), as well as on emission coefficients from the literature regarding emissions from lakes, rivers, undrained mires, peat extraction sites and cropland. Spatial data sources included CORINE land use data, soil map, lake and river shorelines, national forest inventory data, and statistical data on anthropogenic activities. Emission uncertainties were evaluated with Monte Carlo simulations. Artificial surfaces were the most emission intensive land-cover class. Lakes and rivers were about as emission intensive as arable land. Forests were the dominant land cover in the region (66%), and the C sink of the forests decreased the total emissions of the region by 72%. The region's net emissions amounted to 4.37 ± 1.43 Tg CO2-eq yr-1, corresponding to a net emission intensity 0.16 Gg CO2-eq km-2 yr-1, and estimated per capita net emissions of 5.6 Mg CO2-eq yr-1. Our landscape approach opens opportunities to examine the sensitivities of important GHG fluxes to changes in land use and climate, management actions, and mitigation of anthropogenic emissions.

Assessing critical load exceedances and ecosystem impacts of anthropogenic nitrogen and sulphur deposition at unmanaged forested catchments in Europe.

Anthropogenic emissions of nitrogen (N) and sulphur (S) compounds and their long-range transport have caused widespread negative impacts on different ecosystems. Critical loads (CLs) are deposition thresholds used to describe the sensitivity of ecosystems to atmospheric deposition. The CL methodology has been a key science-based tool for assessing the environmental consequences of air pollution. We computed CLs for eutrophication and acidification using a European long-term dataset of intensively studied forested ecosystem sites (n = 17) in northern and central Europe. The sites belong to the ICP IM and eLTER networks. The link between the site-specific calculations and time-series of CL exceedances and measured site data was evaluated using long-term measurements (1990-2017) for bulk deposition, throughfall and runoff water chemistry. Novel techniques for presenting exceedances of CLs and their temporal development were also developed. Concentrations and fluxes of sulphate, total inorganic nitrogen (TIN) and acidity in deposition substantially decreased at the sites. Decreases in S deposition resulted in statistically significant decreased concentrations and fluxes of sulphate in runoff and decreasing trends of TIN in runoff were more common than increasing trends. The temporal developments of the exceedance of the CLs indicated the more effective reductions of S deposition compared to N at the sites. There was a relation between calculated exceedance of the CLs and measured runoff water concentrations and fluxes, and most sites with higher CL exceedances showed larger decreases in both TIN and H+ concentrations and fluxes. Sites with higher cumulative exceedance of eutrophication CLs (averaged over 3 and 30 years) generally showed higher TIN concentrations in runoff. The results provided evidence on the link between CL exceedances and empirical impacts, increasing confidence in the methodology used for the European-scale CL calculations. The results also confirm that emission abatement actions are having their intended effects on CL exceedances and ecosystem impacts.

Acid rain and air pollution: 50 years of progress in environmental science and policy.

Because of its serious large-scale effects on ecosystems and its transboundary nature, acid rain received for a few decades at the end of the last century wide scientific and public interest, leading to coordinated policy actions in Europe and North America. Through these actions, in particular those under the UNECE Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution, air emissions were substantially reduced, and ecosystem impacts decreased. Widespread scientific research, long-term monitoring, and integrated assessment modelling formed the basis for the policy agreements. In this paper, which is based on an international symposium organised to commemorate 50 years of successful integration of air pollution research and policy, we briefly describe the scientific findings that provided the foundation for the policy development. We also discuss important characteristics of the science-policy interactions, such as the critical loads concept and the large-scale ecosystem field studies. Finally, acid rain and air pollution are set in the context of future societal developments and needs, e.g. the UN's Sustainable Development Goals. We also highlight the need to maintain and develop supporting scientific infrastructures.

Ecosystem Services Related to Carbon Cycling - Modeling Present and Future Impacts in Boreal Forests.

Forests regulate climate, as carbon, water and nutrient fluxes are modified by physiological processes of vegetation and soil. Forests also provide renewable raw material, food, and recreational possibilities. Rapid climate warming projected for the boreal zone may change the provision of these ecosystem services. We demonstrate model based estimates of present and future ecosystem services related to carbon cycling of boreal forests. The services were derived from biophysical variables calculated by two dynamic models. Future changes in the biophysical variables were driven by climate change scenarios obtained as results of a sample of global climate models downscaled for Finland, assuming three future pathways of radiative forcing. We introduce continuous monitoring on phenology to be used in model parametrization through a webcam network with automated image processing features. In our analysis, climate change impacts on key boreal forest ecosystem services are both beneficial and detrimental. Our results indicate an increase in annual forest growth of about 60% and an increase in annual carbon sink of roughly 40% from the reference period (1981-2010) to the end of the century. The vegetation active period was projected to start about 3 weeks earlier and end ten days later by the end of the century compared to currently. We found a risk for increasing drought, and a decrease in the number of soil frost days. Our results show a considerable uncertainty in future provision of boreal forest ecosystem services.

Dynamic Modeling and Target Loads of Sulfur and Nitrogen for Surface Waters in Finland, Norway, Sweden, and the United Kingdom.

The target load concept is an extension of the critical load concept of air pollution inputs to ecosystems. The advantage of target loads over critical loads is that one can define the deposition and the point in time (target year) when the critical (chemical) limit is no longer violated. This information on the timing of recovery requires dynamic modeling. Using a well-documented dynamic model, target loads for acidic deposition were determined for 848 surface waters across Finland, Norway, Sweden, and the United Kingdom for the target year 2050. In the majority of sites ( n = 675), the critical ANC-limit was predicted to be achieved by 2050; however, for 127 sites, target loads were determined. In addition, 46 sites were infeasible, i.e., even a reduction of anthropogenic deposition to zero would not achieve the limit by 2050. The average maximum target load for sulfur was 38% lower than the respective critical load across the study lakes ( n = 127). Target loads on a large regional scale can inform effects-based emission reduction policies; the current assessment suggests that reductions beyond the Gothenburg Protocol are required to ensure surface water recovery from acidification by 2050.

Long-term changes (1990-2015) in the atmospheric deposition and runoff water chemistry of sulphate, inorganic nitrogen and acidity for forested catchments in Europe in relation to changes in emissions and hydrometeorological conditions.

The international Long-Term Ecological Research Network (ILTER) encompasses hundreds of long-term research/monitoring sites located in a wide array of ecosystems that can help us understand environmental change across the globe. We evaluated long-term trends (1990-2015) for bulk deposition, throughfall and runoff water chemistry and fluxes, and climatic variables in 25 forested catchments in Europe belonging to the UNECE International Cooperative Programme on Integrated Monitoring of Air Pollution Effects on Ecosystems (ICP IM). Many of the IM sites form part of the monitoring infrastructures of this larger ILTER network. Trends were evaluated for monthly concentrations of non-marine (anthropogenic fraction, denoted as x) sulphate (xSO4) and base cations x(Ca+Mg), hydrogen ion (H+), inorganic N (NO3 and NH4) and ANC (Acid Neutralising Capacity) and their respective fluxes into and out of the catchments and for monthly precipitation, runoff and air temperature. A significant decrease of xSO4 deposition resulted in decreases in concentrations and fluxes of xSO4 in runoff, being significant at 90% and 60% of the sites, respectively. Bulk deposition of NO3 and NH4 decreased significantly at 60-80% (concentrations) and 40-60% (fluxes) of the sites. Concentrations and fluxes of NO3 in runoff decreased at 73% and 63% of the sites, respectively, and NO3 concentrations decreased significantly at 50% of the sites. Thus, the LTER/ICP IM network confirms the positive effects of the emission reductions in Europe. Air temperature increased significantly at 61% of the sites, while trends for precipitation and runoff were rarely significant. The site-specific variation of xSO4 concentrations in runoff was most strongly explained by deposition. Climatic variables and deposition explained the variation of inorganic N concentrations in runoff at single sites poorly, and as yet there are no clear signs of a consistent deposition-driven or climate-driven increase in inorganic N exports in the catchments.

Modelling study of soil C, N and pH response to air pollution and climate change using European LTER site observations.

Current climate warming is expected to continue in coming decades, whereas high N deposition may stabilize, in contrast to the clear decrease in S deposition. These pressures have distinctive regional patterns and their resulting impact on soil conditions is modified by local site characteristics. We have applied the VSD+ soil dynamic model to study impacts of deposition and climate change on soil properties, using MetHyd and GrowUp as pre-processors to provide input to VSD+. The single-layer soil model VSD+ accounts for processes of organic C and N turnover, as well as charge and mass balances of elements, cation exchange and base cation weathering. We calibrated VSD+ at 26 ecosystem study sites throughout Europe using observed conditions, and simulated key soil properties: soil solution pH (pH), soil base saturation (BS) and soil organic carbon and nitrogen ratio (C:N) under projected deposition of N and S, and climate warming until 2100. The sites are forested, located in the Mediterranean, forested alpine, Atlantic, continental and boreal regions. They represent the long-term ecological research (LTER) Europe network, including sites of the ICP Forests and ICP Integrated Monitoring (IM) programmes under the UNECE Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution (LRTAP), providing high quality long-term data on ecosystem response. Simulated future soil conditions improved under projected decrease in deposition and current climate conditions: higher pH, BS and C:N at 21, 16 and 12 of the sites, respectively. When climate change was included in the scenario analysis, the variability of the results increased. Climate warming resulted in higher simulated pH in most cases, and higher BS and C:N in roughly half of the cases. Especially the increase in C:N was more marked with climate warming. The study illustrates the value of LTER sites for applying models to predict soil responses to multiple environmental changes.

Boreal forests can have a remarkable role in reducing greenhouse gas emissions locally: Land use-related and anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and sinks at the municipal level.

Ecosystem services have become an important concept in policy-making. Carbon (C) sequestration into ecosystems is a significant ecosystem service, whereas C losses can be considered as an ecosystem disservice. Municipalities are in a position to make decisions that affect local emissions and therefore are important when considering greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation. Integrated estimations of fluxes at a regional level help local authorities to develop land use policies for minimising GHG emissions and maximising C sinks. In this study, the Finnish national GHG accounting system is modified and applied at the municipal level by combining emissions and sinks from agricultural land, forest areas, water bodies and mires (land use-related GHG emissions) with emissions from activities such as energy production and traffic (anthropogenic GHG emissions) into the LUONNIKAS calculation tool. The study area consists of 14 municipalities within the Vanajavesi catchment area located in Southern Finland. In these municipalities, croplands, peat extraction sites, water bodies and undrained mires are emission sources, whereas forests are large carbon sinks that turn the land use-related GHG budget negative, resulting in C sequestration into the ecosystem. The annual land use-related sink in the study area was 78tCO2eqkm(-2) and 2.8tCO2eq per capita. Annual anthropogenic GHG emissions from the area amounted to 250tCO2eqkm(-2) and 9.2tCO2eq per capita. Since forests are a significant carbon sink and the efficiency of this sink is heavily affected by forest management practices, forest management policy is a key contributing factor for mitigating municipal GHG emissions.

Assessing recovery from acidification of European surface waters in the year 2010: evaluation of projections made with the MAGIC model in 1995.

In 1999 we used the MAGIC (Model of Acidification of Groundwater In Catchments) model to project acidification of acid-sensitive European surface waters in the year 2010, given implementation of the Gothenburg Protocol to the Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution (LRTAP). A total of 202 sites in 10 regions in Europe were studied. These forecasts can now be compared with measurements for the year 2010, to give a "ground truth" evaluation of the model. The prerequisite for this test is that the actual sulfur and nitrogen deposition decreased from 1995 to 2010 by the same amount as that used to drive the model forecasts; this was largely the case for sulfur, but less so for nitrogen, and the simulated surface water [NO3(-)] reflected this difference. For most of the sites, predicted surface water recovery from acidification for the year 2010 is very close to the actual recovery observed from measured data, as recovery is predominantly driven by reductions in sulfur deposition. Overall these results show that MAGIC successfully predicts future water chemistry given known changes in acid deposition.

Forest floor vegetation response to nitrogen deposition in Europe.

Chronic nitrogen (N) deposition is a threat to biodiversity that results from the eutrophication of ecosystems. We studied long-term monitoring data from 28 forest sites with a total of 1,335 permanent forest floor vegetation plots from northern Fennoscandia to southern Italy to analyse temporal trends in vascular plant species cover and diversity. We found that the cover of plant species which prefer nutrient-poor soils (oligotrophic species) decreased the more the measured N deposition exceeded the empirical critical load (CL) for eutrophication effects (P = 0.002). Although species preferring nutrient-rich sites (eutrophic species) did not experience a significantly increase in cover (P = 0.440), in comparison to oligotrophic species they had a marginally higher proportion among new occurring species (P = 0.091). The observed gradual replacement of oligotrophic species by eutrophic species as a response to N deposition seems to be a general pattern, as it was consistent on the European scale. Contrary to species cover changes, neither the decrease in species richness nor of homogeneity correlated with nitrogen CL exceedance (ExCLemp N). We assume that the lack of diversity changes resulted from the restricted time period of our observations. Although existing habitat-specific empirical CL still hold some uncertainty, we exemplify that they are useful indicators for the sensitivity of forest floor vegetation to N deposition.

Effect of catchment characteristics on aquatic carbon export from a boreal catchment and its importance in regional carbon cycling.

Inland waters transport and emit into the atmosphere large amounts of carbon (C), which originates from terrestrial ecosystems. The effect of land cover and land-use practises on C export from terrestrial ecosystems to inland waters is not fully understood, especially in heterogeneous landscapes under human influence. We sampled for dissolved C species in five tributaries with well-determined subcatchments (total size 174.5 km(2)), as well as in various points of two of the subcatchments draining to a boreal lake in southern Finland over a full year. Our aim was to find out how land cover and land-use affect C export from the catchments, as well as CH4 and CO2 concentrations of the streams, and if the origin of C in stream water can be determined from proxies for quality of dissolved organic matter (DOM). We further estimated the gas evasion from stream surfaces and the role of aquatic fluxes in regional C cycling. The export rate of C from the terrestrial system through an aquatic conduit was 19.3 g C m(-2) (catchment) yr(-1), which corresponds to 19% of the estimated terrestrial net ecosystem exchange of the catchment. Most of the C load to the recipient lake consisted of dissolved organic carbon (DOC, 6.1 ± 1.0 g C m(-2) yr(-1)); the share of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) was much smaller (1.0 ± 0.2 g C m(-2) yr(-1)). CO2 and CH4 emissions from stream and ditch surfaces were 7.0 ± 2.4 g C m(-2) yr(-1) and 0.1 ± 0.04 g C m(-2) yr(-1), respectively, C emissions being thus equal with C load to the lake. The proportion of peatland in the catchment and the drainage density of peatland increased DOC in streams, whereas the proportion of agricultural land in the catchment decreased it. The opposite was true for DIC. Drained peatlands were an important CH4 source for streams.

Past, present, and future exceedance of critical loads of acidity for surface waters in Finland.

A critical load is a deposition limit below which harmful effects for a given ecosystem do not occur; the approach has underpinned European sulfur (S) and nitrogen (N) effects-based emission reduction policies during the last two decades. Surface waters are an important resource in Finland, as such the development of models and determination of critical loads has played a central role in supporting their recovery from acidification or preservation of ecosystem health. Critical loads of acidity for Finnish lakes were determined using the steady-state First-order Acidity Balance (FAB) model in conjunction with comprehensive national surveys of surface waters (headwater lakes; n = 1066) and soils. In the 1980s almost 60% of the study lakes were exceeded, impacting brown trout and perch populations. The steep decline in emissions and acidic (S and N) deposition during the last two decades has reduced exceedance to <10%, and by 2020 exceedance is predicted to reach preindustrial (1880) levels. In concert with these reductions, chemical and biological recovery has been observed. The critical load approach has been instrumental in assessing impacts to surface waters in Finland and directing effects-based emission reduction policies.