Climate extremes and predicted warming threaten Mediterranean Holocene firs forests refugia.

Warmer and drier climatic conditions are projected for the 21st century; however, the role played by extreme climatic events on forest vulnerability is still little understood. For example, more severe droughts and heat waves could threaten quaternary relict tree refugia such as Circum-Mediterranean fir forests (CMFF). Using tree-ring data and a process-based model, we characterized the major climate constraints of recent (1950-2010) CMFF growth to project their vulnerability to 21st-century climate. Simulations predict a 30% growth reduction in some fir species with the 2050s business-as-usual emission scenario, whereas growth would increase in moist refugia due to a longer and warmer growing season. Fir populations currently subjected to warm and dry conditions will be the most vulnerable in the late 21st century when climatic conditions will be analogous to the most severe dry/heat spells causing dieback in the late 20th century. Quantification of growth trends based on climate scenarios could allow defining vulnerability thresholds in tree populations. The presented predictions call for conservation strategies to safeguard relict tree populations and anticipate how many refugia could be threatened by 21st-century dry spells.

Dynamical excitation of the tropical Pacific Ocean and ENSO variability by Little Ice Age cooling.

Tropical Pacific Ocean dynamics during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) and the Little Ice Age (LIA) are poorly characterized due to a lack of evidence from the eastern equatorial Pacific. We reconstructed sea surface temperature, El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) activity, and the tropical Pacific zonal gradient for the past millennium from Galápagos ocean sediments. We document a mid-millennium shift (MMS) in ocean-atmosphere circulation around 1500-1650 CE, from a state with dampened ENSO and strong zonal gradient to one with amplified ENSO and weak gradient. The MMS coincided with the deepest LIA cooling and was probably caused by a southward shift of the intertropical convergence zone. The peak of the MCA (900-1150 CE) was a warm period in the eastern Pacific, contradicting the paradigm of a persistent La Niña pattern.

CO2 fertilization and enhanced drought resistance in Greek firs from Cephalonia Island, Greece.

Growth-climate relationships were investigated in Greek firs from Ainos Mountain on the island of Cephalonia in western Greece, using dendrochronology. The goal was to test whether tree growth is sensitive to moisture stress, whether such sensitivity has been stable through time, and whether changes in growth-moisture relationships support an influence of atmospheric CO2 on growth. Regressions of tree-ring indices (ad 1820-2007) with instrumental temperature, precipitation, and Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) indicate that growth is fundamentally limited by growing-season moisture in late spring/early summer, most critically during June. However, this simple picture obscures a pattern of sharply evolving growth-climate relationships during the 20th century. Correlations between growth and June temperature, precipitation, and PDSI were significantly greater in the early 20th century but later degraded and disappeared. By the late 20th-early 21st century, there remains no statistically significant relationship between moisture and growth implying markedly enhanced resistance to drought. Moreover, growth experienced a net increase over the last half-century culminating with a sharp spike in ad 1988-1990. This recent growth acceleration is evident in the raw ring-width data prior to standardization, ruling out artifacts from statistical detrending. The vanishing relationship with moisture and parallel enhancement of growth are all the more notable because they occurred against a climatic backdrop of increasing aridity. The results are most consistent with a significant CO2 fertilization effect operating through restricted stomatal conductance and improved water-use efficiency. If this interpretation is correct, atmospheric CO2 is now overcompensating for growth declines anticipated from drier climate, suggesting its effect is unusually strong and likely to be detectable in other up-to-date tree-ring chronologies from the Mediterranean.

Decline of surface temperature and salinity in the western tropical Pacific Ocean in the Holocene epoch.

In the present-day climate, surface water salinities are low in the western tropical Pacific Ocean and increase towards the eastern part of the basin. The salinity of surface waters in the tropical Pacific Ocean is thought to be controlled by a combination of atmospheric convection, precipitation, evaporation and ocean dynamics, and on interannual timescales significant variability is associated with the El Niño/Southern Oscillation cycles. However, little is known about the variability of the coupled ocean-atmosphere system on timescales of centuries to millennia. Here we combine oxygen isotope and Mg/Ca data from foraminifers retrieved from three sediment cores in the western tropical Pacific Ocean to reconstruct Holocene sea surface temperatures and salinities in the region. We find a decrease in sea surface temperatures of approximately 0.5 degrees C over the past 10,000 yr, whereas sea surface salinities decreased by approximately 1.5 practical salinity units. Our data imply either that the Pacific basin as a whole has become progressively less salty or that the present salinity gradient along the Equator has developed relatively recently.

El Niño-like pattern in ice age tropical Pacific sea surface temperature.

Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the cold tongue of the eastern equatorial Pacific exert powerful controls on global atmospheric circulation patterns. We examined climate variability in this region from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) to the present, using a SST record reconstructed from magnesium/calcium ratios in foraminifera from sea-floor sediments near the Galápagos Islands. Cold-tongue SST varied coherently with precession-induced changes in seasonality during the past 30,000 years. Observed LGM cooling of just 1.2 degrees C implies a relaxation of tropical temperature gradients, weakened Hadley and Walker circulation, southward shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone, and a persistent El Niño-like pattern in the tropical Pacific. This is contrasted with mid-Holocene cooling suggestive of a La Niña-like pattern with enhanced SST gradients and strengthened trade winds. Our results support a potent role for altered tropical Pacific SST gradients in global climate variations.