Cost-effectiveness of a stepwise cardiometabolic disease prevention program: results of a randomized controlled trial in primary care.

BACKGROUND: Cardiometabolic diseases (CMD) are the major cause of death worldwide and are associated with a lower quality of life and high healthcare costs. To prevent a further rise in CMD and related healthcare costs, early detection and adequate management of individuals at risk could be an effective preventive strategy. The objective of this study was to determine long-term cost-effectiveness of stepwise CMD risk assessment followed by individualized treatment if indicated compared to care as usual. A computer-based simulation model was used to project long-term health benefits and cost-effectiveness, assuming the prevention program was implemented in Dutch primary care. METHODS: A randomized controlled trial in a primary care setting in which 1934 participants aged 45-70 years without recorded CMD or CMD risk factors participated. The intervention group was invited for stepwise CMD risk assessment through a risk score (step 1), additional risk assessment at the practice in case of increased risk (step 2) and individualized follow-up treatment if indicated (step 3). The control group was not invited for risk assessment, but completed a health questionnaire. Results of the effectiveness analysis on systolic blood pressure (- 2.26 mmHg; 95% CI - 4.01: - 0.51) and total cholesterol (- 0.15 mmol/l; 95% CI - 0.23: - 0.07) were used in this analysis. Outcome measures were the costs and benefits after 1-year follow-up and long-term (60 years) cost-effectiveness of stepwise CMD risk assessment compared to no assessment. A computer-based simulation model was used that included data on disability weights associated with age and disease outcomes related to CMD. Analyses were performed taking a healthcare perspective. RESULTS: After 1 year, the average costs in the intervention group were 260 Euro higher than in the control group and differences were mainly driven by healthcare costs. No meaningful change was found in EQ 5D-based quality of life between the intervention and control groups after 1-year follow-up (- 0.0154; 95% CI - 0.029: 0.004). After 60 years, cumulative costs of the intervention were 41.4 million Euro and 135 quality-adjusted life years (QALY) were gained. Despite improvements in blood pressure and cholesterol, the intervention was not cost-effective (ICER of 306,000 Euro/QALY after 60 years). Scenario analyses did not allow for a change in conclusions with regard to cost-effectiveness of the intervention. CONCLUSIONS: Implementation of this primary care-based CMD prevention program is not cost-effective in the long term. Implementation of this program in primary care cannot be recommended. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Dutch Trial Register NTR4277 , registered on 26 November 2013.

Lifetime cost-effectiveness and equity impacts of the Healthy Primary School of the Future initiative.

BACKGROUND: This study estimated the lifetime cost-effectiveness and equity impacts associated with two lifestyle interventions in the Dutch primary school setting (targeting 4-12 year olds). METHODS: The Healthy Primary School of the Future (HPSF; a healthy school lunch and structured physical activity) and the Physical Activity School (PAS; structured physical activity) were compared to the regular Dutch curriculum (N = 1676). An adolescence model, calculating weight development, and the RIVM Chronic Disease Model, calculating overweight-related chronic diseases, were linked to estimate the lifetime impact on chronic diseases, quality adjusted life years (QALYs), healthcare, and productivity costs. Cost-effectiveness was expressed as the additional costs/QALY gained and we used €20,000 as threshold. Scenario analyses accounted for alternative effect maintenance scenarios and equity analyses examined cost-effectiveness in different socioeconomic status (SES) groups. RESULTS: HPSF resulted in a lifetime costs of €773 (societal perspective) and a lifetime QALY gain of 0.039 per child versus control schools. HPSF led to lower costs and more QALYs as compared to PAS. From a societal perspective, HPSF had a cost/QALY gained of €19,734 versus control schools, 50% probability of being cost-effective, and beneficial equity impact (0.02 QALYs gained/child for low versus high SES). The cost-effectiveness threshold was surpassed when intervention effects decayed over time. CONCLUSIONS: HPSF may be a cost-effective and equitable strategy for combatting the lifetime burden of unhealthy lifestyles. The win-win situation will, however, only be realised if the intervention effect is sustained into adulthood for all SES groups. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Clinicaltrials.gov ( NCT02800616 ). Registered 15 June 2016 - Retrospectively registered.

Rabies vaccination strategies in the Netherlands in 2018: a cost evaluation.

BackgroundThe risk of contracting rabies is low for travellers. However, the number of Dutch travellers potentially exposed abroad following an animal-associated injury and needing post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP) has increased, resulting in increased costs.AimHere, we evaluated the costs and the cost-effectiveness of different pre- and post-exposure interventions in the Netherlands, taking into account the 2018 World Health Organization (WHO) recommendations for the prevention of rabies.MethodsA decision tree-based economic model was constructed. We calculated and compared the cost of different WHO pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) recommendations, intramuscular vs intradermal vaccination and PEP subsequent to increased vaccination coverage in risk groups. We estimated cost-effectiveness, expressed as incremental costs per rabies immunoglobulin (RIG) administration averted, using a societal perspective. Statistical uncertainty regarding number of travellers and vaccination coverage was assessed.ResultsTotal costs at the national level were highest using previous WHO recommendations from 2012, estimated at EUR 15.4 million annually. Intradermal vaccinations in combination with the current recommendations led to the lowest costs, estimated at EUR 10.3 million. Higher vaccination uptake resulted in higher overall costs. The incremental costs per RIG administration averted varied from EUR 21,300-46,800.ConclusionsThe change in rabies PrEP and PEP recommendations in 2018 reduced total costs. Strategies with increased pre-travel vaccination uptake led to fewer RIG administrations and fewer vaccinations after exposure but also to higher total costs. Although larger scale intradermal administration of rabies vaccine can reduce total costs of PrEP and can positively influence vaccination uptake, it remains a costly intervention.

A social cost-benefit analysis of meat taxation and a fruit and vegetables subsidy for a healthy and sustainable food consumption in the Netherlands.

BACKGROUND: Implementation of food taxes or subsidies may promote healthier and a more sustainable diet in a society. This study estimates the effects of a tax (15% or 30%) on meat and a subsidy (10%) on fruit and vegetables (F&V) consumption in the Netherlands using a social cost-benefit analysis with a 30-year time horizon. METHODS: Calculations with the representative Dutch National Food Consumption Survey (2012-2014) served as the reference. Price elasticities were applied to calculate changes in consumption and consumer surplus. Future food consumption and health effects were estimated using the DYNAMO-HIA model and environmental impacts were estimated using Life Cycle Analysis. The time horizon of all calculations is 30 year. All effects were monetarized and discounted to 2018 euros. RESULTS: Over 30-years, a 15% or 30% meat tax or 10% F&V subsidy could result in reduced healthcare costs, increased quality of life, and higher productivity levels. Benefits to the environment of a meat tax are an estimated €3400 million or €6300 million in the 15% or 30% scenario respectively, whereas the increased F&V consumption could result in €100 million costs for the environment. While consumers benefit from a subsidy, a consumer surplus of €10,000 million, the tax scenarios demonstrate large experienced costs of respectively €21,000 and €41,000 million. Overall, a 15% or 30% price increase in meat could lead to a net benefit for society between €3100-7400 million or €4100-12,300 million over 30 years respectively. A 10% F&V subsidy could lead to a net benefit to society of €1800-3300 million. Sensitivity analyses did not change the main findings. CONCLUSIONS: The studied meat taxes and F&V subsidy showed net total welfare benefits for the Dutch society over a 30-year time horizon.

Cost-effectiveness of mandatory bicycle helmet use to prevent traumatic brain injuries and death.

BACKGROUND: Traumatic brain injury (TBI) is the main cause of mortality and severe morbidity in cyclists admitted to Dutch emergency departments (EDs). Although the use of bicycle helmets is an effective way of preventing TBI, this is uncommon in the Netherlands. An option to increase its use is through a legal enforcement. However, little is known about the cost-effectiveness of such mandatory use of helmets in the Dutch context. The current study aimed to assess the cost-effectiveness of a law that enforces helmet use to reduce TBI and TBI-related mortality. METHODS: The cost-effectiveness was estimated through decision tree modelling. In this study, wearing bicycle helmets enforced by law was compared with the current situation of infrequent voluntary helmet use. The total Dutch cycling population, consisting of 13.5 million people, was included in the model. Model data and parameters were obtained from Statistics Netherlands, the National Road Traffic Database, Dutch Injury Surveillance System, and literature. Effects included were numbers of TBI, death, and disability-adjusted life years (DALY). Costs included were healthcare costs, costs of productivity losses, and helmet costs. Sensitivity analysis was performed to assess which parameter had the largest influence on the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER). RESULTS: The intervention would lead to an estimated reduction of 2942 cases of TBI and 46 deaths. Overall, the incremental costs per 1) death averted, 2) per TBI averted, and 3) per DALY averted were estimated at 1) € 2,002,766, 2) € 31,028 and 3) € 28,465, respectively. Most favorable were the incremental costs per DALY in the 65+ age group: € 17,775. CONCLUSIONS: The overall costs per DALY averted surpassed the Dutch willingness to pay threshold value of € 20,000 for cost-effectiveness of preventive interventions. However, the cost per DALY averted for the elderly was below this threshold, indicating that in this age group largest effects can be reached. If the price of a helmet would reduce by 20%, which is non-hypothetical in a situation of large-scale purchases and use of these helmets, the introduction of this regulation would result in an intervention that is almost cost-effective in all age groups.

A social cost-benefit analysis of two One Health interventions to prevent toxoplasmosis.

In the Netherlands, toxoplasmosis ranks second in disease burden among foodborne pathogens with an estimated health loss of 1,900 Disability Adjusted Life Years and a cost-of-illness estimated at €45 million annually. Therefore, effective and preferably cost-effective preventive interventions are warranted. Freezing meat intended for raw or undercooked consumption and improving biosecurity in pig farms are promising interventions to prevent Toxoplasma gondii infections in humans. Putting these interventions into practice would expectedly reduce the number of infections; however, the net benefits for society are unknown. Stakeholders bearing the costs for these interventions will not necessary coincide with the ones having the benefits. We performed a Social Cost-Benefit Analysis to evaluate the net value of two potential interventions for the Dutch society. We assessed the costs and benefits of the two interventions and compared them with the current practice of education, especially during pregnancy. A 'minimum scenario' and a 'maximum scenario' was assumed, using input parameters with least benefits to society and input parameters with most benefits to society, respectively. For both interventions, we performed different scenario analyses. The freezing meat intervention was far more effective than the biosecurity intervention. Despite high freezing costs, freezing two meat products: steak tartare and mutton leg yielded net social benefits in both the minimum and maximum scenario, ranging from €10.6 million to €31 million for steak tartare and €0.6 million to €1.5 million for mutton leg. The biosecurity intervention would result in net costs in all scenarios ranging from €1 million to €2.5 million, due to high intervention costs and limited benefits. From a public health perspective (i.e. reducing the burden of toxoplasmosis) and the societal perspective (i.e. a net benefit for the Dutch society) freezing steak tartare and leg of mutton is to be considered.

Consumers' preferences for freezing of meat to prevent toxoplasmosis- A stated preference approach.

Consumption of raw or undercooked meat increases the risk of infection with Toxoplasma gondii. Freezing meat products can eliminate this risk. Freezing of meat may affect consumers' valuation of meat products in two different ways: it may be valued positively because of increased food safety or valued negatively because of (perceived) loss of quality. In a Discrete Choice Experiment on four different meat products we studied the difference in willingness to pay for frozen and non-frozen meat products in the Netherlands. Analyses revealed that most Dutch consumer groups prefer non-frozen meat. Price was important in consumer decisions, whereas the meat being frozen appeared to play a minor role in the decision to purchase meat products. Even though it may seem obvious that people would prefer safe food to unsafe food, in a context where consumers presume food being safe, many consumers appear unwilling to pay for freezing of meat as additional measure to reduce the risk of food borne infections such as toxoplasmosis.

Limited salt consumption reduces the incidence of chronic kidney disease: a modeling study.

Background: In addition to blood pressure and cardiovascular disease, high-salt intake has been associated with renal diseases. The aim of this study is to estimate the potential health impact of salt reduction on chronic kidney disease (CKD) and end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) in the Netherlands. Methods: We developed a dynamic population health modeling tool to estimate the health impact of salt reduction on CKD and ESKD. We used data from the PREVEND study and extrapolated that to the Dutch population aged 30-75 years. We estimated the potential health impact of salt reduction comparing the current situation with the health impact of the adherence to the recommended maximum salt intake of 6 g/d. Results: In the recommended maximum intake scenario, a cumulative reduction in CKD of 1.1% (N = 290 000; interquartile range (IQR) = 249 000) and in ESKD of 3.2% (N = 470; IQR = 5080) would occur over a period of 20 years. Conclusions: Our health impact estimation showed that health benefits on CKD might be achieved when salt intake is reduced to the recommended maximum intake of 6 g/d.

Consequences of restricted STI testing for young heterosexuals in the Netherlands on test costs and QALY losses.

BACKGROUND: Due to rising costs caused by increasing demand for sexually transmitted infection (STI) care, the Dutch government changed the funding of STI clinics. In 2015, a more restrictive testing policy was introduced with syphilis and HIV tests only on indication for younger, heterosexual clients. We evaluated intended savings and missed syphilis and/or HIV infections and explored efficiency of possible test policies. METHODS: Using surveillance data from 2011 to 2013 with extensive testing for all, we estimated effects of restrictive testing on test costs, number of infections missed, costs per Quality Adjusted Life Year (QALY) lost, and calculated the net monetary benefit from a government perspective. RESULTS: The 2015 policy led to estimated savings of €1.1 million, while missing approximately three HIV infections and seven syphilis infections annually. Savings were €435,000/QALY lost. If testing second-generation immigrants for syphilis and HIV, savings rose to €525,000/QALY lost. Offering an HIV test when diagnosed with chlamydia or gonorrhoea savings were €568,000/QALY lost. In a sensitivity analysis, the willingness-to-pay threshold had the highest impact on results. CONCLUSIONS: The 2015 testing policy resulted in a modest decline of detected HIV and syphilis infections, generating substantial savings. Syphilis and HIV tests for both first- and second-generation immigrants and an HIV test in case of positive chlamydia or gonorrhoea diagnosis could reduce missed infections in a cost-effective way.

Correction: Mortality and Length of Stay of Very Low Birth Weight and Very Preterm Infants: A EuroHOPE Study.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0131685.].

Variations and Determinants of Mortality and Length of Stay of Very Low Birth Weight and Very Low for Gestational Age Infants in Seven European Countries.

The EuroHOPE very low birth weight and very low for gestational age infants study aimed to measure and explain variation in mortality and length of stay (LoS) in the populations of seven European nations (Finland, Hungary, Italy (only the province of Rome), the Netherlands, Norway, Scotland and Sweden). Data were linked from birth, hospital discharge and mortality registries. For each infant basic clinical and demographic information, infant mortality and LoS at 1 year were retrieved. In addition, socio-economic variables at the regional level were used. Results based on 16,087 infants confirm that gestational age and Apgar score at 5 min are important determinants of both mortality and LoS. In most countries, infants admitted or transferred to third-level hospitals showed lower probability of death and longer LoS. In the meta-analyses, the combined estimates show that being male, multiple births, presence of malformations, per capita income and low population density are significant risk factors for death. It is essential that national policies improve the quality of administrative datasets and address systemic problems in assigning identification numbers at birth. European policy should aim at improving the comparability of data across jurisdictions.

Mortality and Length of Stay of Very Low Birth Weight and Very Preterm Infants: A EuroHOPE Study.

The objective of this paper was to compare health outcomes and hospital care use of very low birth weight (VLBW), and very preterm (VLGA) infants in seven European countries. Analysis was performed on linkable patient-level registry data from seven European countries between 2006 and 2008 (Finland, Hungary, Italy (the Province of Rome), the Netherlands, Norway, Scotland, and Sweden). Mortality and length of stay (LoS) were adjusted for differences in gestational age (GA), sex, intrauterine growth, Apgar score at five minutes, parity and multiple births. The analysis included 16,087 infants. Both the 30-day and one-year adjusted mortality rates were lowest in the Nordic countries (Finland, Sweden and Norway) and Scotland and highest in Hungary and the Netherlands. For survivors, the adjusted average LoS during the first year of life ranged from 56 days in the Netherlands and Scotland to 81 days in Hungary. There were large differences between European countries in mortality rates and LoS in VLBW and VLGA infants. Substantial data linkage problems were observed in most countries due to inadequate identification procedures at birth, which limit data validity and should be addressed by policy makers across Europe.

Chlamydia screening is not cost-effective at low participation rates: evidence from a repeated register-based implementation study in The Netherlands.

OBJECTIVE: In three pilot regions of The Netherlands, all 16-29 year olds were invited to participate in three annual rounds of Chlamydia screening. The aim of the present study is to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of repeated Chlamydia screening, based on empirical data. METHODS: A mathematical model was employed to estimate the influence of repeated screening on prevalence and incidence of Chlamydial infection. A model simulating the natural history of Chlamydia was combined with cost and utility data to estimate the number of major outcomes and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) associated with Chlamydia. Six screening scenarios (16-29 years annually; 16-24 years annually; women only; biennial screening; biennial screening women only; screening every five years) were compared with no screening in two sexual networks, representing both lower ('national network') and higher ('urban network') baseline prevalence. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) for the different screening scenarios were estimated. Uncertainty and sensitivity analyses were performed. RESULTS: In all scenarios and networks, cost per major outcome averted are above €5000. Cost per QALY are at least €50,000. The default scenario as piloted in the Netherlands was least cost-effective, with ICERs of €232,000 in the national and €145,000 in the urban sexual network. Results were robust in sensitivity analyses. CONCLUSIONS: It is unlikely that repeated rounds of Chlamydia screening will be cost-effective. Only at high levels of willingness to pay for a QALY (>€50,000) screening may be more cost-effective than no screening.

[More efficient testing policy at STI clinics]. / Doelmatiger testbeleid van soa-poliklinieken GGD.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the efficiency of the testing policy change in 2012 in sexually transmitted infection (STI) outpatient clinics: persons who attend the clinic and are aged < 25 years without other risk factors are initially tested only for chlamydia, and only in the event of a positive test result will they be tested for other STIs. Other possible changes in the STI testing policy were explored. DESIGN: Explorative study. METHOD: To test the new policy, data from STI outpatient clinics from 2011 were used for the risk group "young people under 25 years of age without other STI risks". Other groups who visited STI outpatient clinic were selected from the data from the STI outpatient clinics from 2012. Test cost savings and missed STIs were calculated if STI outpatient clinic attendees from these risk groups first received only a chlamydia or a combination test (chlamydia and gonorrhoea). Test cost savings were divided by the number of missed STIs as a measure of efficiency. RESULTS: The policy change led to an annual test cost saving of € 1.1 million but missed 31 gonorrhoea infections (€ 36,200 at the cost of one missed gonorrhoea infection). Using a combination test for chlamydia and gonorrhoea in heterosexual individuals visiting the clinic aged < 25 years and not from a STI-endemic country could lead to test costs savings of € 3.8 million. Savings at the cost of one missed STI would be about € 350,000; 4 HIV and 7 syphilis infections would have been missed. CONCLUSION: The national policy change has led to a substantial reduction in test costs. The policy measure would be even more efficient if a combination test for chlamydia and gonorrhoea were applied. Testing using a combination test in all heterosexual individuals who attend the clinic and are aged < 25 years and not from an STI-endemic country would lead to additional savings.

Tobacco control policies specified according to socioeconomic status: health disparities and cost-effectiveness.

INTRODUCTION: Little is known about the cost-effectiveness of tobacco control policy for different socioeconomic status (SES) groups. We aimed to evaluate SES-specific cost-effectiveness ratios of policies with known favorable effect in low-SES groups: a tobacco tax increase and reimbursement of cessation support. METHODS: A computer model of the adult population specified by smoking behavior (never/current/former smoker), age, gender, and SES simulated policy scenarios reflecting the implementation of a €0.22 tobacco tax increase or full reimbursement of cessation support, which were compared. Relating differences in costs to quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) gained generated cost-effectiveness ratios for each SES group. RESULTS: In a cohort of 11 million people, the tobacco tax increase resulted in 27,000 additional quitters after 5 years, who were proportionally divided among the SES groups. Reimbursement led to 59,000 additional quitters, with relatively more quitters in higher-SES groups. The number of QALYs gained were 3,400-6,200 among the various SES groups for the tax increase and 6,300-14,000 for the reimbursement scenario. For both interventions, favorability of the cost-effectiveness ratios increased with SES: costs per QALY decreased from €6,100 to €4,500 for the tax increase and from €21,000 to €11,000 for reimbursement. CONCLUSIONS: The reimbursement policy produced the greatest overall health gain. Surprisingly, neither tax increase nor reimbursement reduced health disparities. Differences in use were too small to compensate for improved health gains per quitter among higher-SES groups. Both policies qualified as cost-effective overall, with more favorable cost-effectiveness ratios for high-SES than for low-SES groups.

Effects of population based screening for Chlamydia infections in the Netherlands limited by declining participation rates.

BACKGROUND: A large trial to investigate the effectiveness of population based screening for chlamydia infections was conducted in the Netherlands in 2008-2012. The trial was register based and consisted of four rounds of screening of women and men in the age groups 16-29 years in three regions in the Netherlands. Data were collected on participation rates and positivity rates per round. A modeling study was conducted to project screening effects for various screening strategies into the future. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We used a stochastic network simulation model incorporating partnership formation and dissolution, aging and a sexual life course perspective. Trends in baseline rates of chlamydia testing and treatment were used to describe the epidemiological situation before the start of the screening program. Data on participation rates was used to describe screening uptake in rural and urban areas. Simulations were used to project the effectiveness of screening on chlamydia prevalence for a time period of 10 years. In addition, we tested alternative screening strategies, such as including only women, targeting different age groups, and biennial screening. Screening reduced prevalence by about 1% in the first two screening rounds and leveled off after that. Extrapolating observed participation rates into the future indicated very low participation in the long run. Alternative strategies only marginally changed the effectiveness of screening. Higher participation rates as originally foreseen in the program would have succeeded in reducing chlamydia prevalence to very low levels in the long run. CONCLUSIONS: Decreasing participation rates over time profoundly impact the effectiveness of population based screening for chlamydia infections. Using data from several consecutive rounds of screening in a simulation model enabled us to assess the future effectiveness of screening on prevalence. If participation rates cannot be kept at a sufficient level, the effectiveness of screening on prevalence will remain limited.

Cost-effectiveness of counseling and pedometer use to increase physical activity in the Netherlands: a modeling study.

BACKGROUND: Counseling in combination with pedometer use has proven to be effective in increasing physical activity and improving health outcomes. We investigated the cost-effectiveness of this intervention targeted at one million insufficiently active adults who visit their general practitioner in the Netherlands. METHODS: We used the RIVM chronic disease model to estimate the long-term effects of increased physical activity on the future health care costs and quality adjusted life years (QALY) gained, from a health care perspective. RESULTS: The intervention resulted in almost 6000 people shifting to more favorable physical-activity levels, and in 5100 life years and 6100 QALYs gained, at an additional total cost of EUR 67.6 million. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was EUR 13,200 per life year gained and EUR 11,100 per QALY gained. The intervention has a probability of 0.66 to be cost-effective if a QALY gained is valued at the Dutch informal threshold for cost-effectiveness of preventive intervention of EUR 20,000. A sensitivity analysis showed substantial uncertainty of ICER values. CONCLUSION: Counseling in combination with pedometer use aiming to increase physical activity may be a cost-effective intervention. However, the intervention only yields relatively small health benefits in the Netherlands.

Effectiveness of yearly, register based screening for chlamydia in the Netherlands: controlled trial with randomised stepped wedge implementation.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the effectiveness of register based, yearly chlamydia screening. DESIGN: Controlled trial with randomised stepped wedge implementation in three blocks. SETTING: Three regions of the Netherlands: Amsterdam, Rotterdam, and South Limburg. PARTICIPANTS: 317 304 women and men aged 16-29 years listed on municipal registers at start of trial. INTERVENTION: From March 2008 to February 2011, the Chlamydia Screening Implementation programme offered yearly chlamydia screening tests. Postal invitations asked people to use an internet site to request a kit for self collection of samples, which would then be sent to regional laboratories for testing. Treatment and partner notification were done by the general practitioner or at a sexually transmitted infection clinic. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Primary outcomes were the percentage of chlamydia tests positive (positivity), percentage of invitees returning a specimen (uptake), and estimated chlamydia prevalence. Secondary outcomes were positivity according to sex, age, region, and sociodemographic factors; adherence to screening invitations; and incidence of self reported pelvic inflammatory disease. RESULTS: The participation rate was 16.1% (43 358/269 273) after the first invitation, 10.8% after the second, and 9.5% after the third, compared with 13.0% (6223/48 031) in the control block invited at the end of round two of the intervention. Chlamydia positivity in the intervention blocks at the first invitation was the same as in the control block (4.3%) and 0.2% lower at the third invitation (odds ratio 0.96 (95% confidence interval 0.83 to 1.10)). No substantial decreases in positivity were seen after three screening rounds in any region or sociodemographic group. Among the people who participated three times (2.8% of all invitees), positivity fell from 5.9% to 2.9% (odds ratio 0.49 (0.47 to 0.50)). CONCLUSIONS: There was no statistical evidence of an impact on chlamydia positivity rates or estimated population prevalence from the Chlamydia Screening Implementation programme after three years at the participation levels obtained. The current evidence does not support a national roll out of this register based chlamydia screening programme. TRIAL REGISTRATION: NTR 3071 (Netherlands Trial Register, www.trialregister.nl).

The polypill in the primary prevention of cardiovascular disease: cost-effectiveness in the Dutch population.

Objectives The aim of the present study was to estimate the cost-effectiveness of the polypill in the primary prevention of cardiovascular disease. Design A health economic modelling study. Setting Primary healthcare in the Netherlands. Participants Simulated individuals from the general Dutch population, aged 45-75 years. Interventions Opportunistic screening followed by prescription of the polypill to eligible individuals. Eligibility was defined as having a minimum 10-year risk of cardiovascular death as assessed with the Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation function of alternatively 5%, 7.5% or 10%. Different versions of the polypill were considered, depending on composition: (1) the Indian polycap, with three different types of blood pressure-lowering drugs, a statin and aspirin; (2) as (1) but without aspirin and (3) as (2) but with a double statin dose. In addition, a scenario of (targeted) separate antihypertensive and/or statin medication was simulated. Primary outcome measures Cases of acute myocardial infarction or stroke prevented, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) gained and the costs per QALY gained. All interventions were compared with usual care. Results All scenarios were cost-effective with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio between €7900 and 12 300 per QALY compared with usual care. Most health gains were achieved with the polypill without aspirin and containing a double dose of statins. With a 10-year risk of 7.5% as the threshold, this pill would prevent approximately 3.5% of all cardiovascular events. Conclusions Opportunistic screening based on global cardiovascular risk assessment followed by polypill prescription to those with increased risk offers a cost-effective strategy. Most health gain is achieved by the polypill without aspirin and a double statin dose.