Determining the Association Between the Origin of Sepsis and the Severity of Sepsis in Intensive Care Unit (ICU) Patients Using Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) IV.

Objective The objective of this study is to compare the outcomes of hospital mortality, the requirement of invasive ventilation, vasopressor requirement, duration of vasopressor requirement, and duration of intensive care unit (ICU) stay among the different causes of sepsis and to determine which cause of sepsis had the most severe outcomes. Methods A retrospective chart review was done in critically ill adult patients who were admitted with sepsis to the ICU from July 2017 until July 2019. Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) IV scores were calculated on patients admitted to ICU on day one of ICU admission. Each patient was then evaluated for outcomes of hospital mortality, need for invasive ventilation, requirement of vasopressors, duration of vasopressors, and duration of ICU stay. The outcomes were then compared between the different sources of sepsis to determine which source of sepsis had the highest severity. Results In total, 176 patients were included in the study. Ninety-three patients were admitted with respiratory sepsis, 26 patients were admitted with gastrointestinal sepsis, 31 patients were admitted with urosepsis, and 26 patients were admitted with other miscellaneous causes of sepsis. The hospital mortality was highest in the respiratory sepsis group at 32%, with a trend towards statistical significance with a P value of 0.057. ICU stay duration was highest in patients with respiratory sepsis at six days, with a statistically significant P value of < 0.001. The need for invasive ventilation was highest in patients with respiratory sepsis at 64%, with a statistically significant P value of < 0.001. The requirement of vasopressor support was highest in patients with respiratory sepsis at 47% and the duration of vasopressors was highest in both respiratory and gastrointestinal sepsis at three days, however, there was no statistical significance. Conclusion Among the different origins of sepsis, the patients with respiratory sepsis had the most severe outcomes, with the highest need for invasive ventilation and the highest ICU stay duration.

Association between body mass index change and mortality in critically ill patients: A retrospective observational study.

OBJECTIVE: Previous studies have emphasized the association between baseline body mass index (BMI) and mortality in patients during a stay in the intensive care unit (ICU). However, to our knowledge, few studies have focused on BMI change during an ICU stay. The aim of this study was to explore the prognostic value of BMI change during ICU hospitalization. METHODS: This was a multicenter, retrospective cohort study with data extracted from the eICU Collaborative Research Database. Logistic regression models were used to explore the relationship between BMI change and mortality in ICU patients. BMI change was calculated as follows: {[discharge ICU weight (kg) - admission ICU weight (kg)] / height (m)2]}. Interaction and subgroup analyses were conducted for patients grouped with baseline BMI on ICU admission (≥30 versus 25-29.9 versus <25 kg/m2), Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) IV score (<53 versus ≥53), and ICU length of stay (≥3 versus <3 d). RESULTS: Compared with those with weight loss (n = 17 134), patients with weight gain during ICU hospitalization (n = 17 436) were associated with higher hospital mortality (odds ratio [OR], 1.251; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.155-1.356; P < 0.001) and ICU mortality (OR, 1.360; 95% CI, 1.227-1.506; P < 0.001) after multivariable adjustment. The associations remained robust in patients with different baseline BMI levels and were especially remarkable among those with higher APACHE IV score and the longer ICU stay. CONCLUSIONS: The present study exposed the potential hazard of increasing BMI for hospital and ICU mortalities during ICU hospitalization and indicating that patients in the ICU may benefit from a more balanced nutritional strategy.

A simple APACHE IV risk dynamic nomogram that incorporates early admitted lactate for the initial assessment of 28-day mortality in critically ill patients with acute myocardial infarction.

BACKGROUND: Early risk stratification is important for patients with acute myocardial infarction (AMI). We aimed to develop a simple APACHE IV dynamic nomogram, combined with easily available clinical parameters within 24 h of admission, thus improving its predictive power to assess the risk of mortality at 28 days. METHODS: Clinical information on AMI patients was extracted from the eICU database v2.0. A preliminary XGBoost examination of the degree of association between all variables in the database and 28-day mortality was conducted. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis were used to perform screening of variables. Based on the multifactorial analysis, a dynamic nomogram predicting 28-day mortality in these patients was developed. To cope with missing data in records with missing variables, we applied the multiple imputation method. Predictive models are evaluated in three main areas, namely discrimination, calibration, and clinical validity. The discrimination is mainly represented by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), net reclassification improvement (NRI) and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI). Calibration is represented by the calibration plot. Clinical validity is represented by the decision curve analysis (DCA) curve. RESULTS: A total of 504 people were included in the study. All 504 people were used to build the predictive model, and the internal validation model used a 500-bootstrap method. Multivariate analysis showed that four variables, APACHE IV, the first sample of admission lactate, prior atrial fibrillation (AF), and gender, were included in the nomogram as independent predictors of 28-day mortality in AMI. The prediction model had an AUC of 0.819 (95%CI 0.770-0.868) whereas the internal validation model had an AUC of 0.814 (95%CI 0.765-0.860). Calibration and DCA curves indicated that the dynamic nomogram in this study were reflective of real-world conditions and could be applied clinically. The predictive model composed of these four variables outperformed a single APACHE IV in terms of NRI and IDI. The NRI was 16.4% (95% CI: 6.1-26.8%; p = 0.0019) and the IDI was 16.4% (95% CI: 6.0-26.8%; p = 0.0020). Lactate accounted for nearly half of the total NRI, which showed that lactate was the most important of the other three variables. CONCLUSION: The prediction model constructed by APACHE IV in combination with the first sample of admission lactate, prior AF, and gender outperformed the APACHE IV scoring system alone in predicting 28-day mortality in AMI. The prediction dynamic nomogram model was published via a website app, allowing clinicians to improve the predictive efficacy of the APACHE IV score by 16.4% in less than 1 min.

Evaluation of mortality prediction using SOFA and APACHE IV tools in trauma and non-trauma patients admitted to the ICU.

BACKGROUND: Various tools have previously been introduced to predict the recuperation and mortality of patients in intensive care units and to classify them, which have particular advantages and disadvantages compared to each other. The present study compared the prediction power of mortality of trauma and non-trauma patients admitted to the ICU by SOFA and APACHE IV tools. METHODS: In this retrospective cohort study, patients admitted to the ICU of Kowsar Hospital in Sanandaj from the beginning of April 2020 to the end of December 2020 were assessed. Data were collected in the form of a questionnaire based on APACHE IV and SOFA criteria as well as the demographic information questionnaire. All collected data related to the first 24 h of patients' hospitalization was analyzed in SPSS V16 software using Chi-square, Mann-Whitney, Cox regression and Pearson correlation coefficient. RESULTS: This study was performed on 404 patients admitted to the ICU, Out of which 273 people (67.6%) were male, 208 (51.5%) trauma patients and 196 (48.5%) non-trauma ones. Patients' mean age was 54.76 ± 20.77 years and their average length of stay in the hospital was 10.05 ± 8.49 days. In general, the AUC obtained by APACHE IV tool (0.902) was slightly better than that of SOFA tool (0.895). However, in a specific study of traumatic and non-traumatic patients, it was found that APACHE IV and SOFA tools had better performance in predicting death innon-trauma and trauma patients based on the accuracy, AUC and sensitivity, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Based on the results of this study, the difference between APACHE IV and SOFA tools in predicting death of patients admitted to the ICU was very small but the function of APACHE IV was better in predicting mortality of non-traumatic patients, while the function of SOFA was better in predicting the death of traumatic cases. This represents the applicability of these two tools in different patient subgroups.

APACHE IV system helps to determine role of cholecystostomy in elderly patients with acute cholecystitis.

OBJECTIVE: Cholecystostomy is a palliative treatment for patients unfit to undergo immediate cholecystectomy. Nevertheless, the role of cholecystostomy in the clinical management of such patients remains unclear. The Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation IV (APACHE IV) scoring system is useful for estimating the hospital mortality of high-risk patients. We evaluated the therapeutic effect of cholecystostomy by the APACHE IV scoring system in patients aged >65 years with acute cholecystitis. METHODS: In total, 597 patients aged >65 years with acute cholecystitis were retrospectively analyzed using APACHE IV scores. RESULTS: The fitness of the APACHE IV score prediction was good, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.894. The chi square independence test indicated that compared with conservative treatment, cholecystostomy may have different effects on mortality for patients whose estimated mortality rate was >10%. Comparison of the estimated mortality of patients before and after cholecystostomy indicated that the estimated mortality was significantly lower after than before puncture, both in the whole patient group and in the group with an estimated mortality of >10%. CONCLUSION: The APACHE IV scoring system showed that cholecystostomy is a safe and effective treatment for elderly high-risk patients with acute cholecystitis.

Mid-Regional Proadrenomedullin and Mid-Regional Proatrial Natriuretic Peptide Clearance Predicts Poor Outcomes Better Than Single Baseline Measurements in Critically Ill Patients With Pneumonia: A Retrospective Cohort Study.

Background We assessed the ability of baseline and serial measurements of mid-regional proadrenomedullin (MR-proADM) and mid-regional proatrial natriuretic peptide (MR-proANP) to predict 28-day mortality in critically ill patients with pneumonia compared with Acute Physiological and Chronic Health Evaluation IV (APACHE IV) model and Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score. Methodology Biomarkers were collected for the first five days in this retrospective observational cohort study. Biomarker clearance (as a percentage) was presented as biomarker decline in five days. We investigated the relationship between biomarkers and mortality in a multivariable Cox regression model. APACHE IV and SOFA were calculated after 24 hours from intensive care unit admission. Results In 153 critically ill patients with pneumonia, 28-day mortality was 26.8%. Values of baseline MR-proADM, MR-proANP, and APACHE IV were significantly higher in 28-day nonsurvivors, but not significantly different for SOFA score. Baseline MR-proADM and MR-proANP, APACHE IV, and SOFA had a low area under the curve in receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curves. No optimal cut-off points could be calculated. Biomarkers and severity scores were divided into tertiles. The highest tertiles baseline MR-proADM and MR-proANP were not significant predictors for 28-day mortality in a multivariable model with age and APACHE IV. SOFA was not a significant predictor in univariable analysis. Clearances of MR-proADM and MR-proANP were significantly higher in 28-day survivors. MR-proADM and MR-proANP clearances had similar low accuracy to identify nonsurvivors in ROC curves and were divided into tertiles. Low clearances of MR-proADM and MR-proANP (first tertiles) were significant predictors for 28-day mortality (hazard ratio [HR]: 2.38; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.21-4.70; p = 0.013 and HR: 2.27; 95% CI: 1.16-4.46; p = 0.017) in a model with age and APACHE IV. Conclusions MR-proADM and MR-proANP clearance performed better in predicting 28-day mortality in a model with age and APACHE IV compared with single baseline measurements in a mixed population of critically ill with pneumonia.

The predictive ability of SAPS II, APACHE II, SAPS III, and APACHE IV to assess outcome and duration of mechanical ventilation in respiratory intensive care unit.

OBJECTIVES: The objective is to determine utility of SAPS II, APACHE II, SAPS III, and APACHE IV scoring system in assessing outcome in mechanically ventilated patients in respiratory intensive care unit and to predict duration of mechanical ventilation (MV). MATERIALS AND METHODS: A prospective observational study where 83 mechanically ventilated patients were grouped into Group 1 (n1 = 40, NIV) and Group 2 (n2 = 43, Invasive ventilation) was conducted. SAPS II, APACHE II, SAPS III, and APACHE IV scores based predicted mortality (PM) were collected at day 1, and day 3. Outcomes (on day 7) were grouped into negative and positive. (NIV-negative outcome = Home NIV, intubation or death; positive outcome = NIV free. Invasive group-positive outcome = Extubation; negative outcome = Death). Binary logistic regression was applied to predict duration of MV (> or < 5 days). RESULTS: The data were analyzed using SPSS version 17.0 trials comparisons of PM on day 1 with SAPS II (P < 0.05) and APACHE IV (P < 0.007) were significant predictors of clinical outcomes in Group 1 where as in Group 2, none of the system could predict significantly. On day 3, Group 1 analysis revealed SAPS II (P < 0.002), SAPS III (P < 0.03), and APACHE IV (P < 0.004) based PM as significant predictors of outcome. APACHE II (P < 0.05) and APACHE IV (P < 0.02) PM were significant in Group 2. On day 3, APACHE IV could significantly predict (P < 0.05) duration of MV (>5 or < 5) while A-a gradient (P < 0.09) predicted poorly in Group 1. In Group 2, APACHE IV was a poor predictor (P < 0.09). Two full logistic regression models were also formulated for both the groups. CONCLUSION: Study concludes that day 3 severity scores are more significant predictors of outcome and duration. APACHE IV scoring system was found more effective than other systems, not only significantly differentiating outcomes of MV but also predicting duration of NIV.

Characteristics and outcomes of patients admitted to adult intensive care units in Hong Kong: a population retrospective cohort study from 2008 to 2018.

BACKGROUND: Globally, mortality rates of patients admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) have decreased over the last two decades. However, evaluations of the temporal trends in the characteristics and outcomes of ICU patients in Asia are limited. The objective of this study was to describe the characteristics and risk adjusted outcomes of all patients admitted to publicly funded ICUs in Hong Kong over a 11-year period. The secondary objective was to validate the predictive performance of Acute Physiology And Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) IV for ICU patients in Hong Kong. METHODS: This was an 11-year population-based retrospective study of all patients admitted to adult general (mixed medical-surgical) intensive care units in Hong Kong public hospitals. ICU patients were identified from a population electronic health record database. Prospectively collected APACHE IV data and clinical outcomes were analysed. RESULTS: From 1 April 2008 to 31 March 2019, there were a total of 133,858 adult ICU admissions in Hong Kong public hospitals. During this time, annual ICU admissions increased from 11,267 to 14,068, whilst hospital mortality decreased from 19.7 to 14.3%. The APACHE IV standard mortality ratio (SMR) decreased from 0.81 to 0.65 during the same period. Linear regression demonstrated that APACHE IV SMR changed by - 0.15 (95% CI - 0.18 to - 0.11) per year (Pearson's R = - 0.951, p < 0.001). Observed median ICU length of stay was shorter than that predicted by APACHE IV (1.98 vs. 4.77, p < 0.001). C-statistic for APACHE IV to predict hospital mortality was 0.889 (95% CI 0.887 to 0.891) whilst calibration was limited (Hosmer-Lemeshow test p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Despite relatively modest per capita health expenditure, and a small number of ICU beds per population, Hong Kong consistently provides a high-quality and efficient ICU service. Number of adult ICU admissions has increased, whilst adjusted mortality has decreased over the last decade. Although APACHE IV had good discrimination for hospital mortality, it overestimated hospital mortality of critically ill patients in Hong Kong.

Are Mechanically Ventilated Patients with COVID-19 More Likely to Die Than Those without COVID-19? Perhaps Not.

How to cite this article: Divatia JV. Are Mechanically Ventilated Patients with COVID-19 More Likely to Die Than Those without COVID-19? Perhaps Not. Indian J Crit Care Med 2021;25(12):1341-1342.

Validation of APACHE IV score in postoperative liver transplantation in southern Brazil: a cohort study / Validação do escore APACHE IV no transplante hepático pós-operatório no sul do Brasil: estudo de coorte

Abstract Background: Liver transplantation is the only curative therapeutic modality available for individuals at end-stage liver disease. There is no reliable method of predicting the early postoperative outcome of these patients. The Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) is a widely used model for predicting hospital survival and benchmarking in critically ill patients. This study evaluated the calibration and discrimination of APACHE IV in the postoperative period of elective liver transplantation in the southern Brazil. Methods: This was a clinical prospective and unicentric cohort study that included 371 adult patients in the immediate postoperative period of elective liver transplantation from January 1, 2012 to December 31, 2016. Results: In this study, liver transplant patients who evolved to hospital death had a significantly higher APACHE IV score (82.7 ± 5.1 vs. 51.0 ± 15.8; p < 0.001) and higher predicted mortality (6.5% [4.4-20.2%] vs. 2.3% [1.4-3.5%]; p < 0.001). The APACHE IV score showed an adequate calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow - H-L = 11.37; p = 0.181) and good discrimination (Receiver Operator Curve - ROC of 0.797; Confidence Interval 95% - 95% CI 0.713-0.881; p < 0.0001), although Standardized Mortality Ratio (SMR = 2.63), (95% CI 1.66-4.27; p < 0.001) underestimate mortality. Conclusions: In summary, the APACHE IV score showed an acceptable performance for predicting a hospital outcome in the postoperative period of elective liver transplant recipients.

Resumo Introdução: O transplante de fígado é a única modalidade terapêutica curativa disponível para indivíduos com doença hepática terminal. Não há método confiável de prever o resultado pós-operatório imediato desses pacientes. A Avaliação da Gravidade da Doença Crônica e Aguda com bases Fisiológicas (APACHE) é um modelo amplamente usado para prever a sobrevida hospitalar e fazer a avaliação comparativa de pacientes criticamente enfermos. Este estudo avaliou a calibração e discriminação do APACHE IV no pós-operatório de transplante hepático eletivo no sul do Brasil. Métodos: Estudo clínico prospectivo de coorte em centro único que incluiu 371 pacientes adultos no pós-operatório imediato de transplante hepático eletivo de 1 de janeiro de 2012 a 31 de dezembro de 2016. Resultados: Neste estudo, pacientes com transplante hepático que evoluíram para óbito hospitalar obtiveram escore APACHE IV significativamente maior (82,7 ± 5,1 vs. 51,0 ± 15,8; p < 0,001) e mortalidade prevista mais alta (6,5% [4,4% -20,2%] vs 2,3% [1,4% -3,5%], p < 0,001). O escore APACHE IV mostrou uma calibração adequada (Hosmer-Lemeshow - H-L = 11,37; p = 0,181) e boa discriminação (Receiver Operator Curve - ROC de 0,797; intervalo de confiança de 95% - IC 95% 0,713-0,881; p < 0,0001), embora a taxa de mortalidade padronizada (Standardized Mortality Ratio - SMR = 2,63), (IC 95% 1,66-4,27; p < 0,001) subestime a mortalidade. Conclusões: Em resumo, o escore APACHE IV mostrou um desempenho aceitável para predizer um desfecho hospitalar no período pós-operatório de receptores eletivos de transplante hepático.

[Validation of APACHE IV score in postoperative liver transplantation in southern Brazil: a cohort study]. / Validação do escore APACHE IV no transplante hepático pós­operatório no sul do Brasil: estudo de coorte.

BACKGROUND: Liver transplantation is the only curative therapeutic modality available for individuals at end-stage liver disease. There is no reliable method of predicting the early postoperative outcome of these patients. The Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) is a widely used model for predicting hospital survival and benchmarking in critically ill patients. This study evaluated the calibration and discrimination of APACHE IV in the postoperative period of elective liver transplantation in the southern Brazil. METHODS: This was a clinical prospective and unicentric cohort study that included 371 adult patients in the immediate postoperative period of elective liver transplantation from January 1, 2012 to December 31, 2016. RESULTS: In this study, liver transplant patients who evolved to hospital death had a significantly higher APACHE IV score (82.7±5.1 vs. 51.0±15.8; p<0.001) and higher predicted mortality (6.5% [4.4-20.2%] vs. 2.3% [1.4-3.5%]; p<0.001). The APACHE IV score showed an adequate calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow - H-L=11.37; p=0.181) and good discrimination (Receiver Operator Curve - ROC of 0.797; Confidence Interval 95% - 95% CI 0.713-0.881; p<0.0001), although Standardized Mortality Ratio (SMR=2.63), (95% CI 1.66-4.27; p<0.001) underestimate mortality. CONCLUSIONS: In summary, the APACHE IV score showed an acceptable performance for predicting a hospital outcome in the postoperative period of elective liver transplant recipients.

Escore APACHE IV no pós-operatório de transplante renal / APACHE IV score in postoperative kidney transplantation

RESUMO Objetivos: Avaliar a calibração e a discriminação do APACHE IV no período pós-operatório de transplante renal. Métodos: Estudo clínico de coorte, que incluiu 986 pacientes adultos hospitalizados durante o período pós-operatório imediato de transplante renal em um único centro na Região Sul do Brasil. Resultados: Os pacientes de transplante renal que evoluíram para óbito no hospital tiveram APACHE IV significantemente mais elevado e maior mortalidade predita. O APACHE IV demonstrou calibração adequada (teste de Hosmer-Lemeshow: 11,24; p = 0,188) e boa discriminação, segundo a curva Característica de Operação do Receptor, que foi de 0,738 (IC95% 0,643 - 0,833; p < 0,001), embora tenha superestimado a taxa de mortalidade padronizada, que foi de 0,73 (IC95%: 0,24 - 1,42; p = 0,664). Conclusões: O APACHE IV demonstrou desempenho adequado para predizer o desfecho no hospital no período pós-operatório de pacientes submetidos à transplante renal.

ABSTRACT Objectives: To evaluate the calibration and discrimination of APACHE IV in the postoperative period after kidney transplantation. Methods: This clinical cohort study included 986 hospitalized adult patients in the immediate postoperative period after kidney transplantation, in a single center in southern Brazil. Results: Kidney transplant patients who died in hospital had significantly higher APACHE IV values and higher predicted mortality. The APACHE IV score showed adequate calibration (H-L 11.24 p = 0.188) and a good discrimination ROC curve of 0.738 (95%CI 0.643 - 0.833, p < 0.001), although SMR overestimated mortality (SMR = 0.73; 95%CI: 0.24 - 1.42, p = 0.664). Conclusions: The APACHE IV score showed adequate performance for predicting hospital outcomes in the postoperative period for kidney transplant recipients.

A study on the efficacy of APACHE-IV for predicting mortality and length of stay in an intensive care unit in Iran.

Background: Clinical assessment of disease severity is an important part of medical practice for prediction of mortality and morbidity in Intensive Care Unit (ICU). A disease severity scoring system can be used as guidance for clinicians for objective assessment of disease outcomes and estimation of the chance of recovery. This study aimed to evaluate the hypothesis that the mortality and length of stay in emergency ICUs predicted by APACHE-IV is different to the real rates of mortality and length of stay observed in our emergency ICU in Iran. Methods: This was a retrospective cohort study conducted on the data of 839 consecutive patients admitted to the emergency ICU of Nemazi Hospital, Shiraz, Iran, during 2012-2015. The relevant variables were used to calculate APACHE-IV.  Length of stay and death or discharge, Glasgow coma score, and acute physiology score were also evaluated. Moreover, the accuracy of APACHE-IV for mortality was assessed using area under the Receiver Operator Characteristic (ROC) curve. Results: Of the studied patients, 157 died and 682 were discharged (non-survivors and survivors, respectively). The length of stay in the ICU was 10.98±14.60, 10.22 ± 14.21 and 14.30±15.80 days for all patients, survivors, and non-survivors, respectively. The results showed that APACHE-IV model underestimated length of stay in our emergency ICU (p<0.001). In addition, the overall observed mortality was 17.8%, while the predicted mortality by APACHE-IV model was 21%. Therefore, there was an overestimation of predicted mortality by APACHE-IV model, with an absolute difference of 3.2% (p=0.036). Conclusion: The findings showed that APACHE-IV was a poor predictor of length of stay and mortality rate in emergency ICU. Therefore, specific models based on big sample sizes of Iranian patients are required to improve accuracy of predictions.

Do Serially Recorded Prognostic Scores Predict Outcome Better Than One-Time Recorded Score on Admission? A Prospective Study in Adult Intensive Care Patients.

OBJECTIVES: The prognosticating ability of one-time recorded Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) IV score was compared with serially recorded Mortality Prediction Model (MPM) II scores. DESIGN AND METHODS: A prospective observational study was conducted for a period of 6 months. Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation IV score was recorded during the first day on intensive care unit (ICU) admission. Mortality Prediction Model II was recorded on admission, 24, 48, and 72 hours. Predicted mortality was compared with observed mortality. The systems were calibrated and tested for discriminant functions. RESULTS: One hundred and fifty patients were studied. The observed mortality was 21.3%. The mean predicted hospital mortality by APACHE IV was 20.6%. The mean predicted hospital mortality rate by serial MPM II measurements was 27.7%, 24.3%, 25.5%, and 25.8%. The area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve was 0.87 for APACHE IV and 0.82, 0.84, 0.85, and 0.89 for MPM II series. Both systems calibrated well with similar degree of goodness of fit. CONCLUSION: Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation IV on admission predicted hospital mortality better than serially recorded MPM, which overestimated mortality. Also, APACHE IV had a slightly better discrimination compared to MPM II on admission. One-time recording of APACHE IV on admission may be sufficient for prognostication of ICU patients rather than serial MPM scores.

The Ability of the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) IV Score to Predict Mortality in a Single Tertiary Hospital.

BACKGROUND: The Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II model has been widely used in Korea. However, there have been few studies on the APACHE IV model in Korean intensive care units (ICUs). The aim of this study was to compare the ability of APACHE IV and APACHE II in predicting hospital mortality, and to investigate the ability of APACHE IV as a critical care triage criterion. METHODS: The study was designed as a prospective cohort study. Measurements of discrimination and calibration were performed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) and the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test respectively. We also calculated the standardized mortality ratio (SMR). RESULTS: The APACHE IV score, the Charlson Comorbidity index (CCI) score, acute respiratory distress syndrome, and unplanned ICU admissions were independently associated with hospital mortality. The calibration, discrimination, and SMR of APACHE IV were good (H = 7.67, P = 0.465; C = 3.42, P = 0.905; AUROC = 0.759; SMR = 1.00). However, the explanatory power of an APACHE IV score >93 alone on hospital mortality was low at 44.1%. The explanatory power was increased to 53.8% when the hospital mortality was predicted using a model that considers APACHE IV >93 scores, medical admission, and risk factors for CCI >3 coincidentally. However, the discriminative ability of the prediction model was unsatisfactory (C index <0.70). CONCLUSIONS: The APACHE IV presented good discrimination, calibration, and SMR for hospital mortality.

The Ability of the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) IV Score to Predict Mortality in a Single Tertiary Hospital / 대한구급학회지

BACKGROUND: The Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II model has been widely used in Korea. However, there have been few studies on the APACHE IV model in Korean intensive care units (ICUs). The aim of this study was to compare the ability of APACHE IV and APACHE II in predicting hospital mortality, and to investigate the ability of APACHE IV as a critical care triage criterion. METHODS: The study was designed as a prospective cohort study. Measurements of discrimination and calibration were performed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) and the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test respectively. We also calculated the standardized mortality ratio (SMR). RESULTS: The APACHE IV score, the Charlson Comorbidity index (CCI) score, acute respiratory distress syndrome, and unplanned ICU admissions were independently associated with hospital mortality. The calibration, discrimination, and SMR of APACHE IV were good (H = 7.67, P = 0.465; C = 3.42, P = 0.905; AUROC = 0.759; SMR = 1.00). However, the explanatory power of an APACHE IV score >93 alone on hospital mortality was low at 44.1%. The explanatory power was increased to 53.8% when the hospital mortality was predicted using a model that considers APACHE IV >93 scores, medical admission, and risk factors for CCI >3 coincidentally. However, the discriminative ability of the prediction model was unsatisfactory (C index <0.70). CONCLUSIONS: The APACHE IV presented good discrimination, calibration, and SMR for hospital mortality.

The Ability of the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) IV Score to Predict Mortality in a Single Tertiary Hospital / 대한중환자의학회지

BACKGROUND: The Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II model has been widely used in Korea. However, there have been few studies on the APACHE IV model in Korean intensive care units (ICUs). The aim of this study was to compare the ability of APACHE IV and APACHE II in predicting hospital mortality, and to investigate the ability of APACHE IV as a critical care triage criterion. METHODS: The study was designed as a prospective cohort study. Measurements of discrimination and calibration were performed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) and the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test respectively. We also calculated the standardized mortality ratio (SMR). RESULTS: The APACHE IV score, the Charlson Comorbidity index (CCI) score, acute respiratory distress syndrome, and unplanned ICU admissions were independently associated with hospital mortality. The calibration, discrimination, and SMR of APACHE IV were good (H = 7.67, P = 0.465; C = 3.42, P = 0.905; AUROC = 0.759; SMR = 1.00). However, the explanatory power of an APACHE IV score >93 alone on hospital mortality was low at 44.1%. The explanatory power was increased to 53.8% when the hospital mortality was predicted using a model that considers APACHE IV >93 scores, medical admission, and risk factors for CCI >3 coincidentally. However, the discriminative ability of the prediction model was unsatisfactory (C index <0.70). CONCLUSIONS: The APACHE IV presented good discrimination, calibration, and SMR for hospital mortality.

Predicting mortality rates: Comparison of an administrative predictive model (hospital standardized mortality ratio) with a physiological predictive model (Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation IV)--A cross-sectional study.

INTRODUCTION: Direct comparison of mortality rates has limited value because most deaths are due to the disease process. Predicting the risk of death accurately remains a challenge. METHODS: A cross-sectional study compared the expected mortality rate as calculated with an administrative model to a physiological model, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation IV. The combined cohort and stratified samples (<0.1, 0.1-0.5, or >0.5 predicted mortality) were considered. A total of 47,982 patients were scored from 1 July 2013 to 30 June 2014, and 46,061 records were included in the analysis. RESULTS: A moderate correlation was shown for the combined cohort (Pearson correlation index, 0.618; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.380-0.779; R(2) = 0.38). A very good correlation for the less than 10% stratum (Pearson correlation index, 0.884; R(2) = 0.78; 95% CI, 0.79-0.937) and a moderate correlation for 0.1 to 0.5 predicted mortality rates (Pearson correlation index, 0.782; R(2) = 0.61; 95% CI, 0.623-0.879). There was no significant positive correlation for the greater than 50% predicted mortality stratum (Pearson correlation index, 0.087; R(2) = 0.007; 95% CI, -0.23 to 0.387). CONCLUSION: At less than 0.1, the models are interchangeable, but in spite of a moderate correlation, greater than 0.1 hospital standardized mortality ratio cannot be used to predict mortality.

A Prospective Study of Comparison of APACHE-IV & SAPS-II Scoring Systems and Calculation of Standardised Mortality Rate in Severe Sepsis and Septic Shock Patients.

CONTEXT: Severe sepsis and septic shock are major causes of mortality in the Intensive Care Unit (ICU) Illness Scoring Systems can help in the prediction of outcome of these patients. AIM: To calculate and compare APACHE-IV and SAPS-II Scoring Systems along with calculation of Standardised Mortality Rate (SMR) in patients of severe sepsis and septic shock in the ICU. STUDY DESIGN: Observational-analytical prospective study. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The study was conducted on 84 patients with severe sepsis and septic shock admitted to the Medical ICU of a tertiary care teaching hospital. RESULTS: Mean of Predicted Mortality Rate (PMR) for APACHE-IV was 37.85% and for SAPS-II, it was 72.36% which shows that APACHE-IV had under-predicted overall mortality while SAPS-II had over-predicted overall mortality of patients with severe sepsis and septic shock. Standardised Mortality Rate for APACHE-IV was 1.60 and for SAPS-II, it was 0.83. CONCLUSION: Predicted Mortality of APACHE-IV and SAPS-II Scoring Systems did not correlate with the observed mortality for patients with severe sepsis and septic shock.

Microcirculation and its relation to continuous subcutaneous glucose sensor accuracy in cardiac surgery patients in the intensive care unit.

OBJECTIVE: Continuous glucose monitoring could be helpful for glucose regulation in critically ill patients; however, its accuracy is uncertain and might be influenced by microcirculation. We investigated the microcirculation and its relation to the accuracy of 2 continuous glucose monitoring devices in patients after cardiac surgery. METHODS: The present prospective, observational study included 60 patients admitted for cardiac surgery. Two continuous glucose monitoring devices (Guardian Real-Time and FreeStyle Navigator) were placed before surgery. The relative absolute deviation between continuous glucose monitoring and the arterial reference glucose was calculated to assess the accuracy. Microcirculation was measured using the microvascular flow index, perfused vessel density, and proportion of perfused vessels using sublingual sidestream dark-field imaging, and tissue oxygenation using near-infrared spectroscopy. The associations were assessed using a linear mixed-effects model for repeated measures. RESULTS: The median relative absolute deviation of the Navigator was 11% (interquartile range, 8%-16%) and of the Guardian was 14% (interquartile range, 11%-18%; P = .05). Tissue oxygenation significantly increased during the intensive care unit admission (maximum 91.2% [3.9] after 6 hours) and decreased thereafter, stabilizing after 20 hours. A decrease in perfused vessel density accompanied the increase in tissue oxygenation. Microcirculatory variables were not associated with sensor accuracy. A lower peripheral temperature (Navigator, b = -0.008, P = .003; Guardian, b = -0.006, P = .048), and for the Navigator, also a higher Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation IV predicted mortality (b = 0.017, P < .001) and age (b = 0.002, P = .037) were associated with decreased sensor accuracy. CONCLUSIONS: The results of the present study have shown acceptable accuracy for both sensors in patients after cardiac surgery. The microcirculation was impaired to a limited extent compared with that in patients with sepsis and healthy controls. This impairment was not related to sensor accuracy but the peripheral temperature for both sensors and patient age and Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation IV predicted mortality for the Navigator were.