The orbital eccentricity distribution of planets orbiting M dwarfs.

We investigate the underlying distribution of orbital eccentricities for planets around early-to-mid M dwarf host stars. We employ a sample of 163 planets around early- to mid-M dwarfs across 101 systems detected by NASA's Kepler Mission. We constrain the orbital eccentricity for each planet by leveraging the Kepler lightcurve together with a stellar density prior, constructed using metallicity from spectroscopy, Ks magnitude from 2MASS, and stellar parallax from Gaia. Within a Bayesian hierarchical framework, we extract the underlying eccentricity distribution, assuming alternately Rayleigh, half-Gaussian, and Beta functions for both single- and multi-transit systems. We described the eccentricity distribution for apparently single-transiting planetary systems with a Rayleigh distribution with [Formula: see text], and for multitransit systems with [Formula: see text]. The data suggest the possibility of distinct dynamically warmer and cooler subpopulations within the single-transit distribution: The single-transit data prefer a mixture model composed of two distinct Rayleigh distributions with [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text] over a single Rayleigh distribution, with 7:1 odds. We contextualize our findings within a planet formation framework, by comparing them to analogous results in the literature for planets orbiting FGK stars. By combining our derived eccentricity distribution with other M dwarf demographic constraints, we estimate the underlying eccentricity distribution for the population of early- to mid-M dwarf planets in the local neighborhood.

A Bayesian neural network predicts the dissolution of compact planetary systems.

We introduce a Bayesian neural network model that can accurately predict not only if, but also when a compact planetary system with three or more planets will go unstable. Our model, trained directly from short N-body time series of raw orbital elements, is more than two orders of magnitude more accurate at predicting instability times than analytical estimators, while also reducing the bias of existing machine learning algorithms by nearly a factor of three. Despite being trained on compact resonant and near-resonant three-planet configurations, the model demonstrates robust generalization to both nonresonant and higher multiplicity configurations, in the latter case outperforming models fit to that specific set of integrations. The model computes instability estimates up to [Formula: see text] times faster than a numerical integrator, and unlike previous efforts provides confidence intervals on its predictions. Our inference model is publicly available in the SPOCK (https://github.com/dtamayo/spock) package, with training code open sourced (https://github.com/MilesCranmer/bnn_chaos_model).

Exoplanet orbital eccentricities derived from LAMOST-Kepler analysis.

The nearly circular (mean eccentricity [Formula: see text]) and coplanar (mean mutual inclination [Formula: see text]) orbits of the solar system planets motivated Kant and Laplace to hypothesize that planets are formed in disks, which has developed into the widely accepted theory of planet formation. The first several hundred extrasolar planets (mostly Jovian) discovered using the radial velocity (RV) technique are commonly on eccentric orbits ([Formula: see text]). This raises a fundamental question: Are the solar system and its formation special? The Kepler mission has found thousands of transiting planets dominated by sub-Neptunes, but most of their orbital eccentricities remain unknown. By using the precise spectroscopic host star parameters from the Large Sky Area Multi-Object Fiber Spectroscopic Telescope (LAMOST) observations, we measure the eccentricity distributions for a large (698) and homogeneous Kepler planet sample with transit duration statistics. Nearly half of the planets are in systems with single transiting planets (singles), whereas the other half are multiple transiting planets (multiples). We find an eccentricity dichotomy: on average, Kepler singles are on eccentric orbits with [Formula: see text] 0.3, whereas the multiples are on nearly circular [Formula: see text] and coplanar [Formula: see text] degree) orbits similar to those of the solar system planets. Our results are consistent with previous studies of smaller samples and individual systems. We also show that Kepler multiples and solar system objects follow a common relation [[Formula: see text](1-2)[Formula: see text]] between mean eccentricities and mutual inclinations. The prevalence of circular orbits and the common relation may imply that the solar system is not so atypical in the galaxy after all.

Jupiter's decisive role in the inner Solar System's early evolution.

The statistics of extrasolar planetary systems indicate that the default mode of planet formation generates planets with orbital periods shorter than 100 days and masses substantially exceeding that of the Earth. When viewed in this context, the Solar System is unusual. Here, we present simulations which show that a popular formation scenario for Jupiter and Saturn, in which Jupiter migrates inward from a > 5 astronomical units (AU) to a ≈ 1.5 AU before reversing direction, can explain the low overall mass of the Solar System's terrestrial planets, as well as the absence of planets with a < 0.4 AU. Jupiter's inward migration entrained s ≳ 10-100 km planetesimals into low-order mean motion resonances, shepherding and exciting their orbits. The resulting collisional cascade generated a planetesimal disk that, evolving under gas drag, would have driven any preexisting short-period planets into the Sun. In this scenario, the Solar System's terrestrial planets formed from gas-starved mass-depleted debris that remained after the primary period of dynamical evolution.

Secular chaos and its application to Mercury, hot Jupiters, and the organization of planetary systems.

In the inner solar system, the planets' orbits evolve chaotically, driven primarily by secular chaos. Mercury has a particularly chaotic orbit and is in danger of being lost within a few billion years. Just as secular chaos is reorganizing the solar system today, so it has likely helped organize it in the past. We suggest that extrasolar planetary systems are also organized to a large extent by secular chaos. A hot Jupiter could be the end state of a secularly chaotic planetary system reminiscent of the solar system. However, in the case of the hot Jupiter, the innermost planet was Jupiter (rather than Mercury) sized, and its chaotic evolution was terminated when it was tidally captured by its star. In this contribution, we review our recent work elucidating the physics of secular chaos and applying it to Mercury and to hot Jupiters. We also present results comparing the inclinations of hot Jupiters thus produced with observations.