Environmental protection measures mitigate Pb but not Cd accumulation in soils: Evidence from a 49-year soil chronosequence in an industrial and mining city in Southwest China.

To address severe soil Pb and Cd contamination from anthropogenic activities, governments have implemented various environmental management measures. However, the extent to which these measures have constrained Pb and Cd accumulation in industrial and mining city soils remains unclear. Here, we investigated Pb and Cd accumulation patterns in soils of Panzhihua City, Southwest China, and determined their dominant anthropogenic drivers using Pb and Cd isotopes. Pb accumulation initially slowed and then increased, while Cd showed a continuous acceleration. Traffic and coal-burning power generation were the dominant anthropogenic forcings for Pb and Cd accumulation in the soils, respectively. Environmental protection measures, particularly the ban on leaded gasoline, significantly reduced Pb accumulation by decreasing traffic-related Pb contributions to soils from 1980 to 2008. However, environmental management measures could not practically mitigate Cd accumulation in the soils owing to the high Cd content in consumed coal, poor efficiency of air pollutant control measures, and steep rise in coal-burning power generation. This study thus indicates the criticality of controlling Cd emissions from thermal power generation. Additionally, the challenges faced by small industrial and mining cities during economic transformation and environmental policy implementation warrant more attention.

Construction of effective reproduction number of infectious disease individuals based on spatiotemporal discriminant search model: take hand-foot-mouth disease as an example.

OBJECTIVE: In order to facilitate the tracing of infectious diseases in a small area and to effectively carry out disease control and epidemiological investigations, this research proposes a novel spatiotemporal model to estimate effective reproduction number(Re)for infectious diseases, based on the fundamental concept of contact tracing. METHODS: This study utilizes the incidence of hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) among children in Bishan District, Chongqing, China from 2015 to 2019. The study incorporates the epidemiological characteristics of HFMD and aims to construct a Spatiotemporal Correlation Discrimination of HFMD. Utilizing ARC ENGINE and C# programming for the creation of a spatio-temporal database dedicated to HFMD to facilitate data collection and analysis. The scientific validity of the proposed method was verified by comparing the effective reproduction number obtained by the traditional SEIR model. RESULTS: We have ascertained the optimal search radius for the spatiotemporal search model to be 1.5 km. Upon analyzing the resulting Re values, which range from 1.14 to 4.75, we observe a skewed distribution pattern from 2015 to 2019. The median and quartile Re value recorded is 2.42 (1.98, 2.72). Except for 2018, the similarity coefficient r of the years 2015, 2016, 2017, and 2019 were all close to 1, and p <0.05 in the comparison of the two models, indicating that the Re values obtained by using the search model and the traditional SEIR model are correlated and closely related. The results exhibited similarity between the Re curves of both models and the epidemiological characteristics of HFMD. Finally, we illustrated the regional distribution of Re values obtained by the search model at various time intervals on Geographic Information System (GIS) maps which highlighted variations in the incidence of diseases across different communities, neighborhoods, and even smaller areas. CONCLUSION: The model comprehensively considers both temporal variation and spatial heterogeneity in disease transmission and accounts for each individual's distinct time of onset and spatial location. This proposed method differs significantly from existing mathematical models used for estimating Re in that it is founded on reasonable scientific assumptions and computer algorithms programming that take into account real-world spatiotemporal factors. It is particularly well-suited for estimating the Re of infectious diseases in relatively stable mobile populations within small geographical areas.

Relative uteroplacental insufficiency of labor.

Relative uteroplacental insufficiency of labor (RUPI-L) is a clinical condition that refers to alterations in the fetal oxygen "demand-supply" equation caused by the onset of regular uterine activity. The term RUPI-L indicates a condition of "relative" uteroplacental insufficiency which is relative to a specific stressful circumstance, such as the onset of regular uterine activity. RUPI-L may be more prevalent in fetuses in which the ratio between the fetal oxygen supply and demand is already slightly reduced, such as in cases of subclinical placental insufficiency, post-term pregnancies, gestational diabetes, and other similar conditions. Prior to the onset of regular uterine activity, fetuses with a RUPI-L may present with normal features on the cardiotocography. However, with the onset of uterine contractions, these fetuses start to manifest abnormal fetal heart rate patterns which reflect the attempt to maintain adequate perfusion to essential central organs during episodes of transient reduction in oxygenation. If labor is allowed to continue without an appropriate intervention, progressively more frequent, and stronger uterine contractions may result in a rapid deterioration of the fetal oxygenation leading to hypoxia and acidosis. In this Commentary, we introduce the term relative uteroplacental insufficiency of labor and highlight the pathophysiology, as well as the common features observed in the fetal heart rate tracing and clinical implications.

The public health impact of COVID-19 variants of concern on the effectiveness of contact tracing in Vermont, United States.

Case investigation and contact tracing (CICT) are public health measures that aim to break the chain of pathogen transmission. Changes in viral characteristics of COVID-19 variants have likely affected the effectiveness of CICT programs. We estimated and compared the cases averted in Vermont when the original COVID-19 strain circulated (Nov. 25, 2020-Jan. 19, 2021) with two periods when the Delta strain dominated (Aug. 1-Sept. 25, 2021, and Sept. 26-Nov. 20, 2021). When the original strain circulated, we estimated that CICT prevented 7180 cases (55% reduction in disease burden), compared to 1437 (15% reduction) and 9970 cases (40% reduction) when the Delta strain circulated. Despite the Delta variant being more infectious and having a shorter latency period, CICT remained an effective tool to slow spread of COVID-19; while these viral characteristics did diminish CICT effectiveness, non-viral characteristics had a much greater impact on CICT effectiveness.

Improving COVID-19 contact tracing and testing of exposed individuals in Cameroon using digital health technology: a cluster randomised trial.

Background: Contact tracing was described as a key strategy to contribute to controlling the spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome of Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) but implementing it can be a challenge. Digitalisation of contact tracing is among the proposed solutions being explored in sub-Saharan African settings. We assessed the effectiveness of a digital tool to expand SARS-CoV-2 testing in exposed individuals in Cameroon. Methods: We conducted a cluster-randomised (1:1) trial in eight health districts, including 22 facilities and SARS-CoV-2 testing units, randomly assigned to a digital (intervention) or standard (control) contact tracing approach. The intervention consisted of a contact tracing module added to the digital platform "Mamal PRO" used for monitoring and coordination of Coronavirus Disease 2019 pandemic response in Cameroon. The primary outcome was the proportion of contacts declared by SAR-CoV-2 index patients who were successfully traced and tested for SARS-CoV-2 evaluated with a Poisson regression model with cluster adjustment. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT05684887). Findings: Between October 18, 2022, and March 31, 2023, we enrolled 164 index patients in the intervention arm and 149 in the control arm, who identified 854 and 849 contacts, respectively. In the intervention arm, 93.8% (801/854) of identified contacts were successfully reached by the tracing unit versus 54.5% (463/849) in the control arm. The intervention significantly increased the likelihood of successfully tracing contacts (adjusted relative risks (RR) 1.72 [95% CI: 1.00-2.95], p = 0.049). The median (interquartile range, IQR) time to successfully tracing contacts was 0 days [IQR: 0, 1] in the intervention and 1 day [IQR: 0, 2] in the control arm. In the intervention arm, 21.3% (182/854) of identified contacts received SARS-CoV-2 testing compared to 14.5% (123/849) in the control arm (adjusted RR 1.47 [95% CI: 0.44-4.90], p = 0.530). Interpretation: Digitalising the contact tracing process improved exposure notification and facilitated the tracing of a greater number of contacts of individuals infected with SARS-CoV-2 in resource-limited settings. Funding: The study was funded by FIND, United Kingdom (FCDO 40105983), Switzerland (81066910), Netherlands (SDD 4000004160), Canada (DFATD 7429348), The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (FIND-ACT-A DX PARTNERSHIP 20.08.2020), The Rockefeller Foundation (2020 HTH 059), Germany (BMZ Covid-19 Diagnostic and Surveillance Response 27.07.2021), Australia (DFAT 76442), Kuwait (M239/2020), The Government of Portugal and Partners (ANF, BCP, CGF, APIFARMA) and The BlackRock Foundation (Grant Agreement as of April 20, 2022).

Stochastic EM algorithm for partially observed stochastic epidemics with individual heterogeneity.

We develop a stochastic epidemic model progressing over dynamic networks, where infection rates are heterogeneous and may vary with individual-level covariates. The joint dynamics are modeled as a continuous-time Markov chain such that disease transmission is constrained by the contact network structure, and network evolution is in turn influenced by individual disease statuses. To accommodate partial epidemic observations commonly seen in real-world data, we propose a stochastic EM algorithm for inference, introducing key innovations that include efficient conditional samplers for imputing missing infection and recovery times which respect the dynamic contact network. Experiments on both synthetic and real datasets demonstrate that our inference method can accurately and efficiently recover model parameters and provide valuable insight at the presence of unobserved disease episodes in epidemic data.

The cell fates of intermediate cell population in prostate development.

Organ development, regeneration and cancer initiation are typically influenced by the proliferation and lineage plasticity of tissue-specific stem cells. Prostate intermediate cells, which exhibit characteristics of both basal and luminal cells, are prevalent in pathological states and during organ development. However, the identity, fate and function of these intermediate cells in prostate development are not well understood. Through single-cell RNA-seq analysis on neonatal urogenital sinus tissue, we identified intermediate cells exhibiting stem cell potential. A notable decline in the population of intermediate cells was observed during prostate development. Prostate intermediate cells were specifically labeled in early and late postnatal development by the enhanced dual-recombinase-mediated genetic tracing systems. Our findings revealed that these cells possess significant stem cell capabilities as demonstrated in organoid formation and cell fate mapping assays. These intermediate cells also exhibited intrinsic bipotential properties, enabling them to differentiate into both basal and luminal cells. Additionally, we discovered a novel transition from intermediate cell expressing neuroendocrine markers to neuroendocrine cell during prostate development. This study highlights intermediate cells as a crucial stem cell population and enhances our understanding of their role in prostate development and the plasticity of prostate cancer lineage.

Activated dormant stem cells recover spermatogenesis in chemoradiotherapy-induced infertility.

Male infertility is a recognized side effect of chemoradiotherapy. Extant spermatogonial stem cells (SSCs) may act as originators for any subsequent recovery. However, which type of SSCs, the mechanism by which they survive and resist toxicity, and how they act to restart spermatogenesis remain largely unknown. Here, we identify a small population of Set domain-containing protein 4 (Setd4)-expressing SSCs that occur in a relatively dormant state in the mouse seminiferous tubule. Extant beyond high-dose chemoradiotherapy, these cells then activate to recover spermatogenesis. Recovery fails when Setd4+ SSCs are deleted. Confirmed to be of fetal origin, these Setd4+ SSCs are shown to facilitate early testicular development and also contribute to steady-state spermatogenesis in adulthood. Upon activation, chromatin remodeling increases their genome-wide accessibility, enabling Notch1 and Aurora activation with corresponding silencing of p21 and p53. Here, Setd4+ SSCs are presented as the originators of both testicular development and spermatogenesis recovery in chemoradiotherapy-induced infertility.

Identifying Barriers to the Adoption of Digital Contact Tracing Apps in England: Semistructured Interview Study With Professionals Involved in the Pandemic Response.

BACKGROUND: The NHS (National Health Service) COVID-19 app was a digital contact tracing app (DCTA) used in England in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. The aim of which was to limit the spread of COVID-19 by providing exposure alerts. At the time of the pandemic, questions were raised regarding the effectiveness and cost of the NHS COVID-19 app and whether DCTAs have a role in future pandemics. OBJECTIVE: This study aims to explore key barriers to DCTAs in England during the COVID-19 pandemic. METHODS: This is a qualitative study using semistructured video interviews conducted with professionals in public health, digital health, clinicians, health care law, and health executives who had an active role in the COVID-19 pandemic. These interviews aimed to explore the perspective of different experts involved in the pandemic response and gauge their opinions on the key barriers to DCTAs in England during the COVID-19 pandemic. The initial use of maximum variation sampling combined with a snowball sampling approach ensured diversity within the cohort of interviewees. Interview transcripts were then analyzed using Braun and Clarke's 6 steps for thematic analysis. RESULTS: Key themes that acted as barriers to DCTAs were revealed by interviewees such as privacy concerns, poor communication, technological accessibility, digital literacy, and incorrect use of the NHS COVID-19 app. Interviewees believed that some of these issues stemmed from poor governmental communication and a lack of transparency regarding how the NHS COVID-19 app worked, resulting in decreased public trust. Moreover, interviewees highlighted that a lack of social support integration within the NHS COVID-19 app and delayed app notification period also contributed to the poor adoption rates. CONCLUSIONS: Qualitative findings from interviews highlighted barriers to the NHS COVID-19 app, which can be applied to DCTAs more widely and highlight some important implications for the future use of DCTAS. There was no consensus among interviewees as to whether the NHS COVID-19 app was a success; however, all interviewees provided recommendations for improvements in creating and implementing DCTAs in the future.

Sources, fate and influencing factors of nitrate in farmland drainage ditches of the irrigation area.

Global irrigation areas face the contradictory challenges of controlling nitrate inputs and ensuring food-safe production. To prevent and control nitrate pollution in irrigation areas, the study using the Yellow River basin (Ningxia section) of China as a case study, employed nitrogen and oxygen dual isotope tracing and extensive field investigations to analyze the sources, fate, and influencing factors of nitrate in agricultural drainage ditches. The results of source tracing of nitrate showed that annual proportions of nitrate sources entering the Yellow River in the ditches are as follows: for manure & sewage, fertilizer, and natural sources, the ratios are 33%, 35%, and 32% overall. The results of nitrate fate showed that nitrates derived from nitrate fertilizer exhibit a lower residual rate in drainage ditches (ecological ditches) compared to ammonium fertilizer, which can undergo self-ecological restoration within one year. The results of influencing factors showed that crops with high water and nutrient requirements, such as vegetables, the nitrate pollution and environmental harm resulting from "exploitative cultivation" are five times more than normal cultivation practices in dryland and paddy fields, especially winter irrigation without crop interception exacerbates the leaching of nitrate from the soil. Therefore, nitrate management in irrigation areas should focus on preventing and controlling "exploitative cultivation" and losses during winter irrigation, while appropriately adjusting the application ratio of ammonium nitrogen fertilizers. The results of the study can guide strategies to mitigate nitrate pollution in irrigated areas such as livestock farming, fertilizer application, irrigation management, ditch optimization, and crop cultivation.

Biofluorescence imaging-guided spatial metabolic tracing: In vivo tracking of metabolic activity in circulating tumor cell-mediated multi-organ metastases.

Circulating tumor cells (CTC) are considered metastatic precursors that are shed from the primary or metastatic deposits and navigate the bloodstream before undergoing extravasation to establish distant metastases. Metabolic reprogramming appears to be a hallmark of metastatic progression, yet current methods for evaluating metabolic heterogeneity within organ-specific metastases in vivo are limited. To overcome this challenge, we present Biofluorescence Imaging-Guided Spatial Metabolic Tracing (BIGSMT), a novel approach integrating in vivo biofluorescence imaging, stable isotope tracing, stain-free laser capture microdissection, and liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry. This innovative technology obviates the need for staining or intricate sample preparation, mitigating metabolite loss, and substantially enhances detection sensitivity and accuracy through chemical derivatization of polar metabolites in central carbon pathways. Application of BIGSMT to a preclinical CTC-mediated metastasis mouse model revealed significant heterogeneity in the in vivo carbon flux from glucose into glycolysis and the tricarboxylic acid (TCA) cycle across distinct metastatic sites. Our analysis indicates that carbon predominantly enters the TCA cycle through the enzymatic reaction catalyzed by pyruvate dehydrogenase. Thus, our spatially resolved BIGSMT technology provides fresh insights into the metabolic heterogeneity and evolution during melanoma CTC-mediated metastatic progression and points to novel therapeutic opportunities.

A new ship tracing technology from oil spills based on multi-source data.

Oil spill from ship can cause serious pollution to the Marine environment, but it is very difficult to find and confirm the troublemaker. In order to determine the oil spill ship, this paper proposes a new method to trace the source of ship oil spills and find the suspected ship that spills oil based on SAR imagery, AIS data and related marine environment data. First, we filter AIS data based on position of oil spill areas on remote sensing imagery and convert oil spill areas into trajectory points. Secondly, based on the Lagrangian particle motion model, a bidirectional drift model is proposed to calculate the average similarity between the forward and backward drift results. Finally, the most likely oil spill ship is determined according to the average similarity results. The results of the case study show that the method is effective and practical.

Molecular decoding a meat-like aroma generated from Laetiporus sulphureus-mediated fermentation of onion (Allium cepa L.).

The organoleptic properties of plant-based meat alternatives do not meet consumer expectations due to the lack of characteristic flavors resembling meat. To address this challenge, a fermentation system utilizing Laetiporussulphureus was developed to generate a meat-like and fatty flavor from a vegetable source, onion. By means of multiple stir bar sorptive extraction and gas chromatography-mass spectrometry-olfactometry, an unsaturated aldehyde, (E,Z)-2,4-decadienal, which imparts a tallow-like and fatty odor, and a sulfurous compound benzothiazole, with a broth-like odor were identified, which well contributed to the characteristic odor of the supernatant. (E,Z)-2,4-Decadienal as the most important odorant (odor activity value = 206) was biosynthesized by transformation of linoleic acid with L.sulphureus, as revealed by isotopic tracing experiments. For the first time in Basidiomycota, the biogenetic pathway of (E,Z)-2,4-decadienal from linoleic acid was proposed.

Comparison of the efficacy of COVID-19 responses in South Korea and the United States.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic devastated many countries worldwide by causing large numbers of fatalities. In our research, we wanted to answer the question: Why was there such a large difference in the mortality rate between South Korea and the United States? This is because many East Asian countries, such as Korea, had a lower mortality rate than many countries, including developed ones, across the world - the mortality rate of South Korea was about five times lower than the United States. METHODS: This study comprehensively compares strategies used to address the COVID-19 pandemic in two different countries: South Korea and the United States. The various aspects of these two countries' responses are examined, including initial response, information dissemination and public compliance, mitigation strategies, and vaccine rollout and their impacts. RESULTS: Early and widespread testing, rigorous contact tracing, the clear release of government information, and an organized vaccine rollout powered a proactive approach in South Korea. The United States had a contrasting response consisting of delayed and more decentralized measures, where testing lagged due to varying policies and the political controversies facing vaccine distribution. CONCLUSIONS: We signify the gravity of rapid response and testing, clear communication, and efficient vaccine distribution, as we believe this could correlate with a lower mortality rate. In addition, we discuss future directions, including the need for a specific health infrastructure and protocol against highly infectious outbreaks.

Main findings: The study suggests strategies that may be effective ways to reduce fatalities during a pandemic through a comparative analysis of COVID-19 responses in South Korea and the United States.Added knowledge: This review further consolidates the importance of an effective defense strategy involving testing, contact tracing, information dissemination, and vaccine rollouts.Global health impact for policy and action: There is a need for the development of a specific pandemic response infrastructure against fast-spreading and fatal viruses involving effective policies that take into account both the freedom and health of citizens.

Hepatic stellate cells in zone 1 engage in capillarization rather than myofibroblast formation in murine liver fibrosis.

The combination of lineage tracing and immunohistochemistry has helped to identify subpopulations and fate of hepatic stellate cells (HSC) in murine liver. HSC are sinusoidal pericytes that act as myofibroblast precursors after liver injury. Single cell RNA sequencing approaches have recently helped to differentiate central and portal HSC. A specific Cre line to lineage trace portal HSC has not yet been described. We used three Cre lines (Lrat-Cre, PDGFRß-CreERT2 and SMMHC-CreERT2) known to label mesenchymal cells including HSC in combination with a tdTomato-expressing reporter. All three Cre lines labeled populations of HSC as well as smooth muscle cells (SMC). Using the SMMHC-CreERT2, we identified a subtype of HSC in the periportal area of the hepatic lobule (termed zone 1-HSC). We lineage traced tdTomato-expressing zone 1-HSC over 1 year, described fibrotic behavior in two fibrosis models and investigated their possible role during fibrosis. This HSC subtype resides in zone 1 under healthy conditions; however, zonation is disrupted in preclinical models of liver fibrosis (CCl4 and MASH). Zone 1-HSC do not transform into αSMA-expressing myofibroblasts. Rather, they participate in sinusoidal capillarization. We describe a novel subtype of HSC restricted to zone 1 under physiological conditions and its possible function after liver injury. In contrast to the accepted notion, this HSC subtype does not transform into αSMA-positive myofibroblasts; rather, zone 1-HSC adopt properties of capillary pericytes, thereby participating in sinusoidal capillarization.

Estimating the human bottleneck for contact tracing.

The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has highlighted the importance of contact tracing for epidemiological mitigation. Contact tracing interviews (CTIs) typically rely on episodic memory, which is prone to decline over time. Here, we provide a quantitative estimate of reporting decline for age- and gender-representative samples from the United Kingdom and Germany, emulating >15,000 CTIs. We find that the number of reported contacts declines as a power function of recall delay and is significantly higher for younger subjects and for those who used memory aids, such as a scheduler. We further find that these factors interact with delay: Older subjects and those who made no use of memory aids have steeper decline functions. These findings can inform epidemiological modeling and policies in the context of infectious diseases.

Epidemic exposure risk assessment in digital contact tracing: A fuzzy logic approach.

Background: Bluetooth low energy (BLE)-based contact-tracing applications were widely used during the COVID-19 pandemic. However, the use of only the received signal strength feature for proximity calculations may not be adaptable to different virus variants or scalable for other potential epidemic diseases. Objective: This study presents a novel framework in regard to evaluating and classifying personal exposure risk that considers both contact features, which include distance and length of contact, and environment features, which include crowd size and the number of recently infected cases in the environment. The framework utilizes a fuzzy expert system that is adaptable to different virus variants. Methods: The proposed method was tested on two viruses with different close contact features, which used four membership functions and 256 fuzzy rule sets. Results: The proposed framework classified personal exposure risks into four classes, which include low, medium, high, and too high risk. The empirical results showed that the fuzzy logic-based approach reduced the number of false positive cases and demonstrated better accuracy and precision than the current BLE-only approaches. Conclusions: The proposed framework provides a more practical and adaptable method in regard to assessing exposure risks in real-world scenarios. It has the potential to be scalable and adaptable to different virus variants and other potential epidemic diseases by considering both contact and environment features. These findings may be useful in order to develop more effective digital contact-tracing applications and policies.

Aberrant outputs of cerebellar nuclei and targeted rescue of social deficits in an autism mouse model.

The cerebellum is heavily connected with other brain regions, sub-serving not only motor but also non-motor functions. Genetic mutations leading to cerebellar dysfunction are associated with mental diseases, but cerebellar outputs have not been systematically studied in this context. Here, we present three dimensional distributions of 50,168 target neurons of cerebellar nuclei (CN) from wild-type mice and Nlgn3R451C mutant mice, a mouse model for autism. Our results derived from 36 target nuclei show that the projections from CN to thalamus, midbrain and brainstem are differentially affected by Nlgn3R451C mutation. Importantly, Nlgn3R451C mutation altered the innervation power of CN→zona incerta (ZI) pathway, and chemogenetic inhibition of a neuronal subpopulation in the ZI that receives inputs from the CN rescues social defects in Nlgn3R451C mice. Our study highlights potential role of cerebellar outputs in the pathogenesis of autism and provides potential new therapeutic strategy for this disease.

Therapeutic Strategies for Ischemic Stroke: Modulating the Adult Neural Stem Cell Niche through the Wnt/ß-catenin Pathway.

Stroke is a prominent contributor to mortality and impairment on a global scale. Ischemic stroke accounts for approximately 80% of stroke cases and is caused by occlusion of cerebral blood vessels. Enhancing neurogenesis through the modulation of the neural stem cell niche in the adult brain is a promising therapeutic strategy for individuals afflicted with ischemic stroke. Neurogenesis results in the generation of newborn neurons that serve as replacements for deceased neural cells within the ischemic core, thereby playing a significant role in the process of neural restoration subsequent to cerebral ischemia. Research has shown that activation of the Wnt/ß-catenin pathway can augment neurogenesis following cerebral ischemia, suggesting that this pathway is a potentially beneficial therapeutic target for managing ischemic stroke. This review provides an extensive analysis of the current knowledge regarding the involvement of the Wnt/ß-catenin pathway in promoting neurogenesis, thereby offering a promising avenue for therapeutic intervention in the context of ischemic stroke or other neurological impairments.

Correcting mortality estimates among children and youth on antiretroviral therapy in southern Africa: A comparative analysis between a multi-country tracing study and linkage to a health information exchange.

OBJECTIVES: The objective of this study is to assess the outcomes of children, adolescents and young adults with HIV reported as lost to follow-up, correct mortality estimates for children, adolescents and young adults with HIV for unascertained outcomes in those loss to follow-up (LTFU) based on tracing and linkage data separately using data from the International epidemiology Databases to Evaluate AIDS in Southern Africa. METHODS: We included data from two different populations of children, adolescents and young adults with HIV; (1) clinical data from children, adolescents and young adults with HIV aged ≤24 years from Lesotho, Malawi, Mozambique, Zambia and Zimbabwe; (2) clinical data from children, adolescents and young adults with HIV aged ≤14 years from the Western Cape (WC) in South Africa. Outcomes of patients lost to follow-up were available from (1) a tracing study and (2) linkage to a health information exchange. For both populations, we compared six methods for correcting mortality estimates for all children, adolescents and young adults with HIV. RESULTS: We found substantial variations of mortality estimates among children, adolescents and young adults with HIV reported as lost to follow-up versus those retained in care. Ascertained mortality was higher among lost and traceable children, adolescents and young adults with HIV and lower among lost and linkable than those retained in care (mortality: 13.4% [traced] vs. 12.6% [retained-other Southern Africa countries]; 3.4% [linked] vs. 9.4% [retained-WC]). A high proportion of lost to follow-up children, adolescents and young adults with HIV had self-transferred (21.0% and 47.0%) in the traced and linked samples, respectively. The uncorrected method of non-informative censoring yielded the lowest mortality estimates among all methods for both tracing (6.0%) and linkage (4.0%) approaches at 2 years from ART start. Among corrected methods using ascertained data, multiple imputation, incorporating ascertained data (MI(asc.)) and inverse probability weighting with logistic weights were most robust for the tracing approach. In contrast, for the linkage approach, MI(asc.) was the most robust. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings emphasise that lost to follow-up is non-ignorable and both tracing and linkage improved outcome ascertainment: tracing identified substantial mortality in those reported as lost to follow-up, whereas linkage did not identify out-of-facility deaths, but showed that a large proportion of those reported as lost to follow-up were self-transfers.