Unexpected thermal stability of two enveloped megaviruses, Emiliania huxleyi virus and African swine fever virus, as measured by viability PCR.

BACKGROUND: The particle structure of Emiliania huxleyi virus (EhV), an algal infecting member of nucleocytoplasmic large DNA viruses (NCLDVs), contains an outer lipid membrane envelope similar to that found in animal viruses such as African swine fever virus (ASFV). Despite both being enveloped NCLDVs, EhV and ASFV are known for their stability outside their host environment. METHOD: Here we report for the first time, the application of a viability qPCR (V-qPCR) method to describe the unprecedented and similar virion thermal stability of both EhV and ASFV. This result contradicts the cell culture-based assay method that suggests that virus "infectivity" is lost in a matter of seconds (for EhV) and minutes (for ASFV) at temperature greater than 50 °C. Confocal microscopy and analytical flow cytometry methods was used to validate the V-qPCR data for EhV. RESULTS: We observed that both EhV and ASFV particles has unprecedented thermal tolerances. These two NCLDVs are exceptions to the rule that having an enveloped virion anatomy is a predicted weakness, as is often observed in enveloped RNA viruses (i.e., the viruses causing Porcine Reproductive and Respiratory Syndrome (PRRS), COVID-19, Ebola, or seasonal influenza). Using the V-qPCR method, we confirm that no PRRSV particles were detectable after 20 min of exposure to temperatures up to 100 °C. We also show that the EhV particles that remain after 50 °C 20 min exposure was in fact still infectious only after the three blind passages in bioassay experiments. CONCLUSIONS: This study raises the possibility that ASFV is not always eliminated or contained after applying time and temperature inactivation treatments in current decontamination or biosecurity protocols. This observation has practical implications for industries involved in animal health and food security. Finally, we propose that EhV could be used as a surrogate for ASFV under certain circumstances.

Developing a risk management framework to improve public health outcomes by enumerating and serotyping Salmonella in ground turkey.

Salmonella enterica continues to be a leading cause of foodborne morbidity worldwide. A quantitative risk assessment model was developed to evaluate the impact of pathogen enumeration and serotyping strategies on public health after consumption of undercooked contaminated ground turkey in the USA. The risk assessment model predicted more than 20,000 human illnesses annually that would result in ~700 annual reported cases. Removing ground turkey lots contaminated with Salmonella exceeding 10 MPN/g, 1 MPN/g, and 1 MPN/25 g would decrease the mean number of illnesses by 38.2, 73.1, and 95.0%, respectively. A three-class mixed sampling plan was tested to allow the detection of positive lots above threshold levels with 2-6 (c = 1) and 3-8 samples per lot (c = 2) using 25-g and 325-g sample sizes for a 95% probability of rejecting a contaminated lot. Removal of positive lots with the presence of highly virulent serotypes would decrease the number of illnesses by 44.2-87.0%. Based on these model prediction results, risk management strategies should incorporate pathogen enumeration and/or serotyping. This would have a direct impact on illness incidence linking public health outcomes with measurable food safety objectives, at the cost of diverting production lots.

Risk ranking of food categories associated with Salmonella enterica contamination in the central region of Mexico.

To prevent and control foodborne diseases, there is a fundamental need to identify the foods that are most likely to cause illness. The goal of this study was to rank 25 commonly consumed food products associated with Salmonella enterica contamination in the Central Region of Mexico. A multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) framework was developed to obtain an S. enterica risk score for each food product based on four criteria: probability of exposure to S. enterica through domestic food consumption (Se); S. enterica growth potential during home storage (Sg); per capita consumption (Pcc); and food attribution of S. enterica outbreak (So). Risk scores were calculated by the equation Se*W1 +Sg*W2 +Pcc*W3 +So*W4 , where each criterion was assigned a normalized value (1-5) and the relative weights (W) were defined by 22 experts' opinion. Se had the largest effect on the risk score being the criterion with the highest weight (35%; IC95% 20%-60%), followed by So (24%; 5%-50%), Sg (23%; 10%-40%), and Pcc (18%; 10%-35%). The results identified chicken (4.4 ± 0.6), pork (4.2 ± 0.6), and beef (4.2 ± 0.5) as the highest risk foods, followed by seed fruits (3.6 ± 0.5), tropical fruits (3.4 ± 0.4), and dried fruits and nuts (3.4 ± 0.5), while the food products with the lowest risk were yogurt (2.1 ± 0.3), chorizo (2.1 ± 0.4), and cream (2.0 ± 0.3). Approaches with expert-based weighting and equal weighting showed good correlation (R2  = 0.96) and did not show significant differences among the ranking order in the top 20 tier. This study can help risk managers select interventions and develop targeted surveillance programs against S. enterica in high-risk food products.

Assessment of Shiga Toxin-Producing Escherichia coli O157 Illnesses Prevented by Recalls of Beef Products.

Beef product recall data from 2005 through 2012 associated with Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli (STEC) O157 contamination were used to develop quantitative models to estimate the number of illnesses prevented by recalls. The number of illnesses prevented was based on the number of illnesses that occurred relative to the number of pounds consumed, then extrapolated to the number of pounds of recalled product recovered. A simulation using a Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) probability distribution with illness-related recalls estimated 204 (95% credible interval, 117-333) prevented STEC O157 illnesses from 2005 through 2012. Recalls not associated with illnesses had more recalled product recovered and prevented an estimated 83 additional STEC O157 illnesses. Accounting for underdiagnosis resulted in an estimated total of 7500 STEC O157 illnesses prevented over 8 years. This study demonstrates that recalls, although reactive in nature, are an important tool for averting further exposure and illnesses.

Exploring the influence of slaughterhouse type and slaughtering steps on Campylobacter jejuni contamination in chicken meat: A cluster analysis approach.

Campylobacter jejuni (C. jejuni), a foodborne pathogen, poses notable hazards to human health and has significant economic implications for poultry production. This study aimed to assess C. jejuni contamination levels in chicken carcasses from both backyard and commercial slaughterhouses in Chiang Mai province, Thailand. It also sought to examine the effects of different slaughtering practices on contamination levels and to offer evidence-based recommendations for reducing C. jejuni contamination. Through the sampling of 105 chicken carcasses and subsequent enumeration of C. jejuni, the study captured the impact of various slaughtering practices. Utilizing k-modes clustering on the observational and bacterial count data, the research identified distinct patterns of contamination, revealing higher levels in backyard operations compared to commercial ones. The application of k-modes clustering highlighted the impact of critical slaughtering practices, particularly chilling, on contamination levels. Notably, samples with the lowest bacterial counts were typically from the chilling step, a practice predominantly found in commercial facilities. This observation underpins the recommendation for backyard slaughterhouses to incorporate ice in their post-evisceration soaking process. Mimicking commercial practices, this chilling method aims to inhibit C. jejuni growth by reducing carcass temperature, thereby enhancing food safety. Furthermore, the study suggests backyard operations adopt additional measures observed in commercial settings, like segregating equipment for each slaughtering step and implementing regular cleaning protocols. These strategic interventions are pivotal in reducing contamination risks, advancing microbiological safety in poultry processing, and aligning with global food safety enhancement efforts.

Quantitative risk assessment model of the presence of porcine epidemic diarrhea and African swine fever viruses in spray-dried porcine plasma.

Introduction: There are no microbiological regulatory limits for viruses in animal feed and feed ingredients. Methods: A performance objective (PO) was proposed in this study to manufacture a spray-dried porcine plasma (SDPP) batch absent of any infectious viral particles. The PO levels of -7.0, -7.2, and -7.3 log TCID50/g in SDPP were estimated for three batch sizes (10, 15, and 20 tons). Results and discussion: A baseline survey on the presence of porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDV) in raw porcine plasma revealed a concentration of -1.0 ± 0.6 log TCID50/mL as calculated using a TCID50-qPCR derived standard curve. The mean African swine fever virus (ASFV) concentration in raw plasma was estimated to be 0.6 log HAD50/mL (0.1-1.4, 95% CI) during a pre-clinical scenario (collected from asymptomatic and undetected viremic pigs). Different processing scenarios (baseline: spray-drying + extended storage) and baseline + ultraviolet (UV) radiation were evaluated to meet the PO levels proposed in this study. The baseline and baseline + UV processing scenarios were >95 and 100% effective in achieving the PO for PEDV by using different batch sizes. For the ASFV in SDPP during a pre-clinical scenario, the PO compliance was 100% for all processing scenarios evaluated. Further research is needed to determine the underlying mechanisms of virus inactivation in feed storage to further advance the implementation of feed safety risk management efforts globally.

Quantitative Risk Assessment of Salmonella in Ground Beef Products and the Resulting Impact of Risk Mitigation Strategies on Public Health.

Salmonellosis incidence rates have not declined over the last 15 years in the US despite a significant Salmonella prevalence reduction in meat and poultry products. Ground beef is currently regulated using only qualitative Salmonella criteria, and Salmonella enumeration values have been proposed as an alternative for implementing risk-based mitigation strategies to prevent illnesses. The purpose of this study was to develop a quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) model to estimate the annual number of salmonellosis cases attributable to the consumption of ground beef contaminated with Salmonella and investigate the impact of risk management strategies on public health. Model results estimated 8,980 (6,222-14,215, 90% CI) annual illnesses attributable to ground beef consumption in the US. The removal or diversion of highly contaminated ground beef production lots containing levels above 10 MPN/g (0.4%) and 1 MPN/g (2.4%) would result in a 13.6% (5,369-12,280, 90% CI) and 36.7% (3,939-8,990, 90% CI) reduction of annual salmonellosis illnesses, respectively. Frozen ground beef cooked at home was the consumption scenario of the highest risk for acquiring salmonellosis. Highly virulent serotypes accounted for 96.7% of annual illnesses despite only being present in 13.7% of ground beef samples. The removal of MDR Salmonella would result in decreased burden of disease with a 45% reduction in acute DALY annually. Focusing salmonellosis reduction efforts on removing highly contaminated ground beef lots, highly virulent Salmonella serotypes, and MDR Salmonella from not-ready-to-eat (NRTE) products were predicted to be effective risk prevention strategies.

Incorporating risk communication into highly pathogenic avian influenza preparedness and response efforts.

A highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) outbreak in the United States will initiate a federal emergency response effort that will consist of disease control and eradication efforts, including quarantine and movement control measures. These movement control measures will not only apply to live animals but also to animal products. However, with current egg industry "just-in-time" production practices, limited storage is available to hold eggs. As a result, stop movement orders can have significant unintended negative consequences, including severe disruptions to the food supply chain. Because stakeholders' perceptions of risk vary, waiting to initiate communication efforts until an HPAI event occurs can hinder disease control efforts, including the willingness of producers to comply with the response, and also can affect consumers' demand for the product. A public-private-academic partnership was formed to assess actual risks involved in the movement of egg industry products during an HPAI event through product specific, proactive risk assessments. The risk analysis process engaged a broad representation of stakeholders and promoted effective risk management and communication strategies before an HPAI outbreak event. This multidisciplinary team used the risk assessments in the development of the United States Department of Agriculture, Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Secure Egg Supply Plan, a comprehensive response plan that strives to maintain continuity of business. The collaborative approach that was used demonstrates how a proactive risk communication strategy that involves many different stakeholders can be valuable in the development of a foreign animal disease response plan and build working relationships, trust, and understanding.

The impact of holding time on the likelihood of moving internally contaminated eggs from a highly pathogenic avian influenza infected but undetected commercial table-egg layer flock.

Emergency response during a highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) outbreak may involve quarantine and movement controls for poultry products such as eggs. However, such disease control measures may disrupt business continuity and impact food security, since egg production facilities often do not have sufficient capacity to store eggs for prolonged periods. We propose the incorporation of a holding time before egg movement in conjunction with targeted active surveillance as a novel approach to move eggs from flocks within a control area with a low likelihood of them being contaminated with HPAI virus. Holding time reduces the likelihood of HPAI-contaminated eggs being moved from a farm before HPAI infection is detected in the flock. We used a stochastic disease transmission model to estimate the HPAI disease prevalence, disease mortality, and fraction of internally contaminated eggs at various time points postinfection of a commercial table-egg layer flock. The transmission model results were then used in a simulation model of a targeted matrix gene real-time reverse transcriptase (RRT)-PCR testing based surveillance protocol to estimate the time to detection and the number of contaminated eggs moved under different holding times. Our simulation results indicate a significant reduction in the number of internally contaminated eggs moved from an HPAI-infected undetected flock with each additional day of holding time. Incorporation of a holding time and the use of targeted surveillance have been adopted by the U.S. Department of Agriculture in their Draft Secure Egg Supply Plan for movement of egg industry products during an HPAI outbreak.

Genotypic and phenotypic quantitative microbial risk assessment model of human salmonellosis related to the consumption of chicken meat in the central region of Mexico.

Chicken meat is often associated withSalmonella entericacontamination worldwide. This study proposes a risk assessment model for human salmonellosis linked to the domestic consumption of chicken meat in the central region of Mexico, incorporating genotypic and phenotypic data. SixS. entericagroups were used, considering the presence of specific virulence genes and multidrug resistance (MDR). Sixteen exposure scenarios were established considering retail point (RP1 = fresh market/butcher shop; RP2 = mini-super/supermarket), transportation, home storage, cooking, and cross-contamination. The model predicted a mean annual salmonellosis cases of 66,754 due to chicken consumption (CI95% 10775-231606). The mean probability of illness (Pill) among the exposure scenarios ranged from 2.5 × 10-9 to 3.7 × 10-6, 7.7 × 10-8 to 1.1 × 10-4, and 6.7 × 10-4 to 7.8 × 10-2 for low, moderate, and high virulence groups. Exposure scenarios with the highest Pill were not responsible for most cases due to their low frequency of occurrence. The high virulence/ MDR group was responsible for most cases (66.5 %), despite the low S. enterica prevalence (RP1 0.5 % and RP2 5.0 %). The years lost due to disability (YLD) value for MDR was 2.6 × higher than for non-MDR. Spearman rank showed that the inputs with higher influence on the variability of salmonellosis depended on the type of exposure scenario. For example, the cooking temperature and time had the most significant influence in the scenarios where S. enterica can survive after cooking. Including the microbial genotypic and phenotypic characteristics in risk assessment modeling highlights the importance of focusing on high-virulent and MDR strains, which are not the most frequent but represent the highest public health risk.

Quantitative risk assessment model to investigate the public health impact of varying Listeria monocytogenes allowable levels in different food commodities: A retrospective analysis.

Invasive listeriosis is a potentially fatal foodborne disease that according to this study may affect up to 32.9 % of the US population considered as increased risk and including people with underlying conditions and co-morbidities. Listeria monocytogenes has been scrutinized in research and surveillance programs worldwide in Ready-to-Eat (RTE) food commodities (RTE salads, deli meats, soft/semi-soft cheese, seafood) and frozen vegetables in the last 30 years with an estimated overall prevalence of 1.4-9.9 % worldwide (WD) and 0.5-3.8 % in the United States (US). Current L. monocytogenes control efforts have led to a prevalence reduction in the last 5 years of 4.9-62.9 % (WD) and 12.4-92.7 % (US). A quantitative risk assessment model was developed, estimating the probability of infection in the US susceptible population to be 10-10,000× higher than general population and the total number of estimated cases in the US was 1044 and 2089 cases by using the FAO/WHO and Pouillot dose-response models. Most cases were attributed to deli meats (>90 % of cases) followed by RTE salads (3.9-4.5 %), soft and semi-soft cheese and RTE seafood (0.5-1.0 %) and frozen vegetables (0.2-0.3 %). Cases attributed to the increased risk population corresponded to 96.6-98.0 % of the total cases with the highly susceptible population responsible for 46.9-80.1 % of the cases. Removing product lots with a concentration higher than 1 CFU/g reduced the prevalence of contamination by 15.7-88.3 % and number of cases by 55.9-100 %. Introducing lot-by-lot testing and defining allowable quantitative regulatory limits for low-risk RTE commodities may reduce the public health impact of L. monocytogenes and improve the availability of enumeration data.

Rethinking the uncertainty of African swine fever virus contamination in feed ingredients and risk of introduction into the United States.

Economically relevant pathogens, such as African swine fever virus (ASFV), have been shown to survive when experimentally inoculated in some feed ingredients under the environmental conditions in transoceanic transport models. However, these models did not characterize the likelihood of virus survival under various time and temperature processes that feed ingredients undergo before they are added to swine diets. Here, we developed a quantitative risk assessment model to estimate the probability that one or more corn or soybean meal ocean vessels (25,000 tonnes) contaminated with ASFV would be imported into the United States annually. This final probability estimate was conditionally based on five likelihoods: the probability of initial ASFV contamination (p0), ASFV inactivation during processing (p1) and transport (p2), recontamination (pR), and ASFV inactivation while awaiting customs clearance at United States entry (p3). The probability of ASFV inactivation was modelled using corn and soybean (extruded or solvent extracted) processing conditions (times and temperatures), D-values (time to reduce 90% or 1-log) estimated from studies of ASFV thermal inactivation in pork serum (p1), and survival in feed ingredients during transoceanic transport (p2 and p3). 'What-if' scenarios using deterministic values for p0 and pR (1%, 10%, 25%, 50%, 75%, and 100%) were used to explore their impact on risk. The model estimated complete inactivation of ASFV after extrusion or solvent extraction processes regardless of the initial ASFV contamination probability assumed. The value of recontamination (ranging from 1% to 75%) was highly influential on the risk of one ASFV-contaminated soybean meal vessel entering the United States. Median risk estimates ranged from 0.064% [0.006%-0.60%; 95% probability interval (PI)], assuming a pR of 1.0%, up to 4.67% (0.45%-36.50% 95% PI) assuming a pR of 75.0%. This means that at least one vessel with ASFV-contaminated soybean meal would be imported once every 1563-21 years, respectively. When all raw corn was assumed to be contaminated (p0 = 100%), and no recontamination was assumed to occur (pR = 0%), the median probability of one vessel with ASFV-contaminated corn entering the United States was 2.02% (0.28%-9.43% 95% PI) or once every 50 years. Values of recontamination between 1% and 75% did not substantially change the risk of corn. Days of transport, virus survival during transport (D-value), and number of vessels shipped were the parameters most influential for increased likelihood of a vessel with ASFV-contaminated soybean meal or corn entering the United States. The model helped to identify knowledge gaps that are most influential on output values and serves as a framework that could be updated and parameterized as new scientific information becomes available. We propose that the quantitative risk assessment model developed in this study can be used as a framework for estimating the risk of ASFV entry into the United States and other ASFV-free countries through other types of imported feed ingredients that may potentially become contaminated. Ultimately, this model can be used to develop risk mitigation strategies and critical control points for inactivating ASFV during feed ingredient processing, storage, and transport, and contribute to the design and implementation of biosecurity measures to prevent the introduction of ASFV into the United States and other ASFV-free countries.

New perspectives for evaluating relative risks of African swine fever virus contamination in global feed ingredient supply chains.

There are no published reports indicating that the African swine fever virus (ASFV) has been detected in feed ingredients or complete feed. This is primarily because there are only a few laboratories in the world that have the biosecurity and analytical capabilities of detecting ASFV in feed. Several in vitro studies have been conducted to evaluate ASFV concentration, viability and inactivation when ASFV was added to various feed ingredients and complete feed. These inoculation studies have shown that some feed matrices support virus survival longer than others and the reasons for this are unknown. Current analytical methodologies have significant limitations in sensitivity, repeatability, ability to detect viable virus particles and association with infectivity. As a result, interpretation of findings using various measures may lead to misleading conclusions. Because of analytical and technical challenges, as well as the lack of ASFV contamination data in feed supply chains, quantitative risk assessments have not been conducted. A few qualitative risk assessments have been conducted, but they have not considered differences in potential scenarios for ASFV contamination between various types of feed ingredient supply chains. Therefore, the purpose of this review is to provide a more holistic understanding of the relative potential risks of ASFV contamination in various global feed ingredient supply chains and provide recommendations for addressing the challenges identified.

Analysis of scenarios to reduce the probability of acquiring hemolytic uremic syndrome associated with beef consumption.

The objective of this study was to develop a quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) model to evaluate potential risk mitigation strategies to reduce the probability of acquiring hemolytic uremic syndrome (HUS) associated with beef consumption in Argentina. Five scenarios were simulated to evaluate the effect of interventions on the probability of acquiring HUS from Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli (STEC)-contaminated ground beef and commercial hamburger consumption. These control strategies were chosen based on previous results of the sensitivity analysis of a baseline QMRA model. The application of improvement actions in abattoirs not applying Hazard Analysis and Critical Control Points (HACCP) for STEC would result 7.6 times lower in the probability that consumers acquired HUS from ground beef consumption, while the implementation of improvements in butcher shops would lead to a smaller reduction. In abattoirs applying HACCP for STEC, the risk of acquiring HUS from commercial hamburger consumption was significantly reduced. Treatment with 2% lactic acid, hot water and irradiation reduced 4.5, 3.5 and 93.1 times the risk of HUS, respectively. The most efficient interventions, in terms of case reduction, being those that are applied in the initial stages of the meat chain.

Survival of a surrogate African swine fever virus-like algal virus in feed matrices using a 23-day commercial United States truck transport model.

African swine fever virus (ASFV) is a member of the nucleocytoplasmic large DNA viruses (NCLDVs) and is stable in a variety of environments, including animal feed ingredients as shown in previous laboratory experiments and simulations. Emiliania huxleyi virus (EhV) is another member of the NCLDVs, which has a restricted host range limited to a species of marine algae called Emiliania huxleyi. This algal NCLDV has many similar morphological and physical characteristics to ASFV thereby making it a safe surrogate, with results that are applicable to ASFV and suitable for use in real-world experiments. Here we inoculated conventional soybean meal (SBMC), organic soybean meal (SBMO), and swine complete feed (CF) matrices with EhV strain 86 (EhV-86) at a concentration of 6.6 × 107 virus g-1, and then transported these samples in the trailer of a commercial transport vehicle for 23 days across 10,183 km covering 29 states in various regions of the United States. Upon return, samples were evaluated for virus presence and viability using a previously validated viability qPCR (V-qPCR) method. Results showed that EhV-86 was detected in all matrices and no degradation in EhV-86 viability was observed after the 23-day transportation event. Additionally, sampling sensitivity (we recorded unexpected increases, as high as 49% in one matrix, when virus was recovered at the end of the sampling period) rather than virus degradation best explains the variation of virus quantity observed after the 23-day transport simulation. These results demonstrate for the first time that ASFV-like NCLDVs can retain viability in swine feed matrices during long-term transport across the continental United States.

An expert-based risk ranking framework for assessing potential pathogens in the live baitfish trade.

As global trade of live animals expands, there is increasing need to assess the risks of invasive organisms, including pathogens, that can accompany these translocations. The movement and release of live baitfish by recreational anglers has been identified as a particularly high-risk pathway for the spread of aquatic diseases in the United States. To provide risk-based decision support for preventing and managing disease invasions from baitfish release, we developed a hazard identification and ranking tool to identify the pathogens that pose the highest risk to wild fish via this pathway. We created a screening protocol and semi-quantitative stochastic risk ranking framework, combining published data with expert elicitation (n = 25) and applied the framework to identify high-priority pathogens for the bait supply in Minnesota, USA. Normalized scores were developed for seven risk criteria (likelihood of transfer, prevalence in bait supply, likelihood of colonization, current distribution, economic impact if established, ecological impact if established and host species) to characterize a pathogen's ability to persist in the bait supply and cause impacts to wild fish species of concern. The generalist macroparasite Schizocotyle acheilognathi was identified as presenting highest overall threat, followed by the microsporidian Ovipleistophora ovariae, and viral haemorrhagic septicaemia virus. Our findings provide risk-based decision support for managers charged with maintaining both the recreational fishing industry and sustainable, healthy natural resources. Particularly, the identification of several high-risk but currently unregulated pathogens suggests that focusing risk management on pathogens of concern in all potential host species could reduce disease introduction risk. The ranking process, implemented here for a single state case study, provides a conceptual framework for integrating expert opinion and sparse available data that could be scaled up and applied across jurisdictions to inform risk-based management of the live baitfish pathway.

Quantitative risk assessment of haemolytic uremic syndrome associated with beef consumption in Argentina.

We developed a quantitative microbiological risk assessment (QMRA) of haemolytic uremic syndrome (HUS) associated with Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli (STEC)-contaminated beef (intact beef cuts, ground beef and commercial hamburgers) in children under 15 years of age from Argentina. The QMRA was used to characterize STEC prevalence and concentration levels in each product through the Argentinean beef supply chain, including cattle primary production, cattle transport, processing and storage in the abattoir, retail and home preparation, and consumption. Median HUS probability from beef cut, ground beef and commercial hamburger consumption was <10-15, 5.4x10-8 and 3.5x10-8, respectively. The expected average annual number of HUS cases was 0, 28 and 4, respectively. Risk of infection and HUS probability were sensitive to the type of abattoir, the application or not of Hazard Analysis and Critical Control Points (HACCP) for STEC (HACCP-STEC), stx prevalence in carcasses and trimmings, storage conditions from the abattoir to retailers and home, the joint consumption of salads and beef products, and cooking preference. The QMRA results showed that the probability of HUS was higher if beef cuts (1.7x) and ground beef (1.2x) were from carcasses provided by abattoirs not applying HACCP-STEC. Thus, the use of a single sanitary standard that included the application of HACCP-STEC in all Argentinean abattoirs would greatly reduce HUS incidence. The average number of annual HUS cases estimated by the QMRA (n = 32) would explain about 10.0% of cases in children under 15 years per year in Argentina. Since other routes of contamination can be involved, including those not related to food, further research on the beef production chain, other food chains, person-to-person transmission and outbreak studies should be conducted to reduce the impact of HUS on the child population of Argentina.

Planning "Plan B": The Case of Moving Cattle From an Infected Feedlot Premises During a Hypothetical Widespread FMD Outbreak in the United States.

In the event of a foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) outbreak in the United States, "stamping out" FMD infected premises has been proposed as the method of choice for the control of outbreaks. However, if a widespread, catastrophic FMD outbreak in the U.S. were to occur, alternative solutions to stamping out may be required, particularly for large feedlots with over 10,000 cattle. Such strategies include moving cattle from infected or not known to be infected operations to slaughter facilities either with or without prior implementation of vaccination. To understand the risk of these strategies, it is important to estimate levels of herd viremia. Multiple factors must be considered when determining risk and feasibility of moving cattle from a feedlot to a slaughter facility during an FMD outbreak. In addition to modeling within-herd disease spread to estimate prevalence of viremic animals, we explore potential pathways for viral spread associated with the movement of asymptomatic beef cattle (either pre-clinical or recovered) from an infected feedlot premises to offsite harvest facilities. This analysis was proactive in nature, however evaluation of the likelihood of disease spread relative to disease (infection) phase, time of movement, and vaccination status are all factors which should be considered in managing and containing a large-scale FMD outbreak in the United States.

Modeling the Transmission of Foot and Mouth Disease to Inform Transportation of Infected Carcasses to a Disposal Site During an Outbreak Event.

In the event of a Food and Mouth Disease (FMD) outbreak in the United States, an infected livestock premises is likely to result in a high number of carcasses (swine and/or cattle) as a result of depopulation. If relocating infected carcasses to an off-site disposal site is allowed, the virus may have increased opportunity to spread to uninfected premises and result in exposure of susceptible livestock. A stochastic within-herd disease spread model was used to predict the time to detect the disease by observation of clinical signs within the herd, and the number of animals in different disease stages over time. Expert opinion was elicited to estimate depopulation parameters in various scenarios. Disease detection was assumed when 5% of the population showed clinical signs by direct observation. Time to detection (5 and 95th percentile values) was estimated for all swine farm sizes (500-10,000 head) ranged from 102 to 282 h, from 42 to 216 h for all dairy cattle premises sizes (100-2,000 head) and from 66 to 240 h for all beef cattle premises sizes (5,000-50,000 head). Total time from infection to beginning depopulation (including disease detection and confirmation) for the first FMD infected case was estimated between 8.5-14.3 days for swine, 6-12.8 days for dairy or beef cattle premises. Total time estimated for subsequent FMD cases was between 6.8-12.3 days for swine, 4.3-10.8 days for dairy and 4.5-10.5 days for beef cattle premises. On an average sized operation, a sizable proportion of animals in the herd (34-56% of swine, 48-60% of dairy cattle, and 47-60% of beef cattle for the first case and 49-60% of swine, 55-60% of dairy cattle, 56-59% of beef cattle for subsequent cases) would be viremic at the time of beginning depopulation. A very small fraction of body fluids from the carcasses (i.e., 1 mL) would contain virus that greatly exceeds the minimum infectious dose by oral (4-7x) or inhalation (7-13x) route for pigs and cattle.

Prioritization of Chicken Meat Processing Interventions on the Basis of Reducing the Salmonella Residual Relative Risk.

Protecting public health by controlling Salmonella in chicken meat products continues to be a challenge to both industry and policymakers. Studies evaluating the combined use of commercially available antimicrobial interventions are scarce. The aim of this work was to develop a risk-based prioritization framework to rank chicken meat processing interventions that achieve the greatest Salmonella relative risk reduction. A baseline model characterizing the current U.S. broiler industry food safety intervention practices was created from direct observation of processes and expert elicitation. Results showed the combination of chlorine at the bird wash station and peroxyacetic acid at the on-line reprocessing and chill stages as the most common U.S. processing scenario. Irradiation at packaging and acidified sodium chlorite at evisceration were the most effective single processing interventions (98.8 and 91.6% risk reduction, respectively); however, no single intervention was able to comply with the current Food Safety and Inspection Service Salmonella postchill performance standards. The combination of peroxyacetic acid in at least one of the chicken processing stages with the current set of U.S. baseline interventions achieved >99% Salmonella relative risk reduction and ensured Food Safety and Inspection Service compliance. Adding more than one intervention to the U.S. current practice did not enhance (<2%) the overall Salmonella risk reduction. This study can help poultry processors to prioritize food safety interventions to maximize Salmonella reduction and public health protection.